Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Malina could be the Girl to back at Warwick

• Tony Calvin Saturday antepost focus from Warwick

• 12/113.00 Malina Girl too big a price at Warwick

• Gavin Cromwell a shrewd operator in the UK this season

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There are no early-closing races this week, so the odds-compilers had to start from scratch with the eight ITV Saturday contests from three meetings.

So prices were always going to be slow to come through.

First things first though, and that is the usual ground housekeeping.

Kempton is currently soft, good to soft in places and the forecast is for a dry, chilly week. I live about 20 minutes away in the car, and it was sleeting-cum-snowing as I started to write this piece at 2pm.

Curiously, the BHA site says "It walks better than the going description but will ride Soft." I've no idea, either.

Warwick and Wetherby (where the waterlogging finally disappeared over the weekend) are both heavy, soft in places, and the outlook is the same as Kempton. Dry and cold.

On Monday morning, I feared the worst, numbers-wise, when seeing that three of the eight ITV races were Grade 2 chases, and they duly only got 24 entries combined.

Wetherby Saturday 13:10 - No Bet

Wetherby's 2m3f+ Grade 2 Towton Chase at 13:10, normally run in early February, never attracts a big field. So they probably were delighted with 10 entries.

In fact, since 2014 it has only seen between four and seven runners, which leads you to believe that it probably should be scrapped.

Colonel Harry is the 5/42.25 favourite with the Sportsbook, with the double-entered Apple Away at 2/13.00.

Mind you, if we carried forward this scrapping logic, most Graded chases would be consigned to the bin until such time we have the horses to service the current racing programme (we are probably five years off this scenario, if not more), including those aforementioned Grade 2s at Warwick and Kempton on Saturday.

Warwick Saturday 14:25 - No Bet

Warwick's 75k 3m novice' chase and Kempton's 80k Silviniaco Conti Chase have got just seven entries apiece - the Kempton race is propped up by two Irish entries in Banbridge (an "intended runner") and Janidil - with the 2m novices' handicap chase at the latter track (also set to be on ITV, but it could be ditched) a pitiful six.

Six for a handicap, for god's sake.

Pic D'Orhy is the Sportsbook's early 2/13.00 favourite for the Silviniaco Conti at 14:05, while the Warwick novices' chase jolly at 14:25 is Broadway Boy at 6/42.50.

However, on the plus side, the other for ITV handicaps have attracted good initial numbers, with 16 of more at the five-day stage for all.

Kempton Saturday 14:40 - No Bet

Kempton's 2m5f 100k Lanzarote Hurdle at 14:40 was a weird race last year, with only four of the 20 finishing on ground officially described as soft, though Timeform predictably called it heavy, and won by Dan Skelton's West Balboa.

I was going to mainly focus on this race in this column, and follow up with a longer, second ante-post piece when Grandad duties allow on the other ITV seven, either late on Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. But that idea had to be changed.

Right, double-entries watch. They are as follows in alphabetical order: Douglas Dc, Kaleb and Shallow River. So that doesn't help to narrow down the 24-strong field.

Given the value of the race, you'd hope and expect that we may even get that lesser-spotted National Hunt animal of a full-field (in this case 20 runners), so you have to pick your price battles very carefully here, especially of betting each way.

It is heavy odds-on you will get at least five places from the Sportsbook on the day, and maybe even better odds, so bear that in mind.

I had a good look at the race before the prices began to filter through and I was very keen to see what price Nemean Lion was put in at.

Fifth in a strong Greatwood Hurdle last time, where errors at the final two flights maybe cost him one or two places, the furthest he has been over hurdles was 2m2f at Kelso last March, a race in which he saw his race out very well to land that Grade 2 pot.

That should have come as no surprise given he was second in a Group 2 contest over 1m7f in heavy ground on the Flat in France (back in 2020) and there is definitely plenty of mileage in trying him at this 2m5f trip on just his seventh start over hurdles.

But I was singularly unimpressed when the first firm up on Monday afternoon made him just 7s, as I wanted at least double-figures about him in a race in which I think the numbers will hold up well at the overnight stage.

And connections won't run him on anything quicker than good to soft (which he won on at Ffos Las on his return), due to his fragility and leg issues down the years.

I really wanted him onside in this race though, as he is surely a huge player.

That 2m Greatwood Hurdle has seen the third , fourth (Sonigino, also in here) and sixth come out and win since, and I have Nemean Lion improving for this stamina test as well, though recent entries do suggest his trainer Kerry Lee thinks he is well suited by 2m.

However, the price has to be right. It is no point tipping horses you fancy, regardless of odds, as that is a surefire route to losing in the medium-to-long term.

You can get away with it in the short term, which is why so many TV pundits do it, and written tipsters without a published P & L follow suit. They just hope viewers/readers forget about the bigger picture.

Skelton has four in here, with Nurse Susan the shortest price of the lot.

However, his Jay Jay Reilly, 33s in two places, is far more interesting, though you are gambling on Skelton's mindset if backing him ante-post, and the trainer letting him run on ground possibly softer than ideal.

A lot of this horse's better efforts over fences have come at Kempton , including when a ½ length second off 139 here in May (he has also won over hurdles here), and he can race off a mark of 132 here on his switch back to the smaller obstacles.

He ran okay (to a degree) without his usual cheekpieces on soft ground at Cheltenham last month - all his best runs have come in this headgear - and he isn't badly treated at all on his 15-length handicap hurdle win (made all) at Doncaster in January 2022.

If the ground dries out in any meaningful degree from hereon in, doubtful I admit, his current market price could look very big on Saturday afternoon given his course form, and that hurdles handicap mark.

However, the Sportsbook's prices were yet to appear when I filed this column, so I was snookered. Actually, just before this went live, they did go up and they were top price about Nemean Lion at 8s, and just 20s about Jay Jay Reilly. Neither were big enough for me, though.

Warwick Saturday 15:00 - Back Malina Girl 12/113.00

They have priced up the 3m5f Warwick handicap chase at 15:00 though, and Malina Girl stood out at 12/113.00, so a hasty revision of focus was needed.

Basically, Gavin Cromwell is a man to have on your side in his UK ventures (8 from 31 this season) and Malina Girl was going great guns, off this mark, when falling three out at Cheltenham last time. She traded at a low of 2.06, even that far out.

She looked all stamina when winning over an extended 3m3f at that track previously, and the 12/113.00 looks big to me.

I've no idea if the intention is to travel, but I'll take my chances at the price. She'll surely be a fair bit shorter on the day if she does, and this is a 100k race, and Cromwell clearly likes pot hunting here.

Good luck.

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