Tony Calvin's Ante-post Tips: 25/1 Tacarib Bay is worth backing at Ascot

• TC recommends third tip for Ascot on Saturday

• Tricky sort could be ready to perform after break

• 25/126.00 means he's worth a shot at small stakes

You get the impression that bookmakers would be happy to start trading Saturday races at the overnight stage these days, and be free of any ante-post liabilities, given the defensive way contests are priced up in midweek.

We all know you are likely to get similar prices after the declarations on Thursday, and in many cases bigger odds and with extra places thrown in for fewer runners, so punters increasingly need to have a compelling reason to get involved.

That said, I managed to find a couple of bets in the King George in a column on Monday, though it honestly wouldn't be a surprise if that pair traded at bigger odds on the Betfair Exchange on Saturday if the 15-strong field holds up to any meaningful degree on Thursday.

The Betfair Sportsbook are doing their bit by already offering five places on the Moet and Chandon International Stakes handicap at 15:00 at Ascot.

Baradar's price in freefall

Granted, a minimum of six places will probably be on offer for the race, which has a maximum field of 29, come Friday, but of more concern to me was Baradar's price being in freefall.

When I first started looking at the weekend ITV races on Monday morning Baradar was available at 20/121.00 and 16/117.00 but then a mini-gamble took place on him before the five-day entries were confirmed at midday, and even the Sportsbook's 14/115.00 was trimmed into 11/112.00 before then.

Baradar is now just 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook, so I obviously cannot tip him now, so I won't waste my time or yours by outlining his claims here. I'll save the argument for him should the ground worsen, and his price improve, later in the week.

Rain forecast later in the week

Oh, the ground.

It is currently good to soft, soft in places (though a Tuesday update is imminent), and it will be the weather on Wednesday afternoon through to Thursday night (when the bulk of the forecast rain is due - maybe up to 15mm) that will dictate just how testing the weekend will ride. There is also 3mm due on Friday.

Basically, the right horses fill the major spots in the betting for this 7f 150k handicap - I'd have the 2lb well-in Biggles as my clear favourite - but one who I thought was overpriced was Tacarib Bay at 25/126.00.

Ascot - Saturday 15:00: Back Tacarib Bay

Admittedly, I have some history with the horse, and we all know familiarity tends to breed laziness in tipping and betting terms, but it may well be that a gelding operation has arrested the slight decline we have seen from him on his last two starts.

He has always been something of a tricky sort - it may be just coincidence but two of his best efforts have come in first-time headgear - so hopefully that has straightened him out.

He is also back on the same mark as for his last success though, at Haydock last July (over 7f on soft ground), and he has always run well off a break, so his absence since a lack-lustre run at Newmarket in April is not too concerning.

He obviously has a lot of form over a mile but I think a strongly-run 7f could well be his optimum and two of his better efforts have come at Ascot (in the aforementioned first-time blinkers and cheekpieces, funnily enough). Course form is particularly relevant here, I feel.

They both came over a mile but looking at his finishing effort in his three-length third of 20 in the Balmoral here in October (big-field handicap form at this track is a valuable commodity), I'd say a furlong less would suit him here.

As a pre-race 25.741237/50 Betfair SP chance there, he traded at 5.04/1 in-running when travelling smoothly into the race, before not picking up as well as expected from the furlong marker. Still, he beat 17 rivals home there off a 1lb higher mark than this.

He has form on fast ground, so he won't mind it if the bulk of the rain misses, and I am happy to chuck a few quid on him each-way at 25/126.00, five places.

I will keep stakes small as I have no idea if he is set to rock up - and I see he is also in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next week - but this is a major prize in its own right and he has a lot going for him.

I'd be surprised if he didn't take his chance but this is ante-post betting and we all know the risks, as we saw with Lezoo in the July Cup. They waited for a Group 3 at Newbury last Saturday, and had to withdraw her because of the ground. Sometimes connections just have to take the chance when a horse is fit and well and has their conditions.

The Sportsbook have priced up all seven ITV races from Ascot and York on Saturday, but I will keep my powder dry elsewhere and come at those fresh later in the week.

Good luck.

Read King George VI Ante-Post Tips: 40/1 Deauville makes Tony Calvin's Ascot pair