Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on Rath An Iuir at 20/1

Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin
TC has a 20/1 antepost bet at Newcastle

In his second antepost preview of Saturday's racing Tony Calvin discusses the Newcastle card and recommends a bet at 20/1...

  • TC says hold off on Gold Clermont for now

  • 20/121.00 bet is 3 from 3 on heavy ground over fences

  • Free Racing Multiple Every Weekend In February


  • I'll start my second ante-post piece of the day by pretty much re-stating how I ended the first.

    The field for Saturday's 80k 4m1f56yd Eider Chase at Newcastle at 14:08 was reduced from 34 to just 16 on Monday (a maximum number of 18 would have been allowed on the day), with the weights going up 5lb after Highland Hunter and Iron Bridge were taken out.

    In fact, we also lost one of the ante-post 4/15.00 joint-favourites, Guetapan Collonges, on Monday, too. The ground is currently heavy, and it is not expected to dry out to any meaningful degree.

    Newcastle Saturday 14:08 - Back Rath An Iuir

    The weights going up was good news for Gold Clermont and Rath An Iuir, as they are now in the handicap (having both been 4lb wrong), and I was keen to see what price the former would open up when the market reformed.

    She may not be the most consistent, and is unproven beyond 3m5f, but she won well at Fontwell last time and clearly relishes testing conditions. Furthermore, she does look as though this marathon test will suit.

    However, the Sportsbook agree and go 7s when she is 12s and 10s elsewhere, so I can hardly play. And while she is currently 11.521/2 on the Exchange, I can't tip into such a lightly-traded market.

    And, perhaps most importantly of all, she is also entered at Exeter and Warwick on Friday. You have to hold off for now if you fancy her.

    The 33s poke Sidi Ismael is also in the Devon National at Exeter on Friday.

    There are not many guaranteed stayers in here - not least Cruz Control, who has never raced beyond an extended 2m4f before, though the 7yo does have a quirky appeal from an in-form yard - but you can see why connections of the entries have been tempted to have a pop with over £41k on offer to the winner.

    A fair few of these also come here after running terribly last time, and the aforementioned Rath An Iuir is one of those.

    He ran dismally at Catterick last month but it could be that a brutally hard win over 3m2f at Kelso the time before had left its mark, even though he was given a 26-day break in between.

    I appreciate this will come just 31 days after that Catterick outing, but at least he wasn't bottomed there, as he probably had been at Kelso previously. The latter was grim, slow-motion viewing.

    We know he has a decent history in this race off higher marks - sixth off 131 in 2022, and fifth off 118 last year, albeit being soundly beaten on each occasion - and I think he has a hand to play off 115 in a weaker renewal here. He went off at 9s in 2022, and 14s in 2023.

    So, as a guaranteed stayer - staying is relative as we know - and a course winner, with a record of three from three on heavy ground over fences, I think the 20s is fair win-only (he is 23.0 on the exchange as this goes live).

    The 20s is the general price (though he is 25s in two places on the Oddschecker grid) and I am happy to advise to small stakes.

    Back Rath An Iur @ 20/121.00

    Bet now

    The stable won this race with Rocking Blues in 2016 and it was good to see them having a winner at Musselburgh on Sunday, their first since December.

    Good luck. I'm back on Thursday.


    Watch this week's Weighed-In podcast


    Now read Tony's tips for Saturday's racing at Kempton


PROFIT AND LOSS (Nov 1 onwards; 2023-24 NH season)

STAKED: 71

RETURN: 118.8

P/L: +47.8

PROFIT AND LOSS (April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season)

STAKED: 202

RETURNS: 168.9

P AND L: -33.1

ANTE-POST: - 11.5

Exchange bets settled at Betfair SP for fairness

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