Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday

• Rain may mean heavy ground at Ascot

• Keep an eye on 25/1 Sir Psycho

• Zhiguli may relish conditions on Saturday

ITV Racing sent round an email early on Tuesday afternoon, changing their domestic Saturday schedule to cover just four races at Ascot (dropping the novices' hurdle at 14:40 from their coverage) and adding in Down Royal's Grade 1 3m chase at 14:35.

Bearing in mind the Irish race has attracted just six entries from a brace of trainers - four from Gordon Elliott and two from Henry de Bromhead - I don't think that possesses too much ante-post attraction.

Unless you are called Gordon or Henry. Elliott's Gerri Colombe is the Sportsbook's even money favourite if you are interested.

Ground could be heavy by race-time

The rain is set to start at Ascot at around 7pm on Tuesday evening and pretty much not stop until Friday morning (that could bring in 30mm+), with the wet stuff returning on Saturday. Even the BHA site are currently predicting between 40-46mm by the end of Saturday.

The current good to soft, soft in places, is surely a near 1.01 poke to turn heavy by race-time on Saturday. And it's not a million that the meeting could be off if the weather and Storm Ciaran turns even nastier than expected.

I'll take the ITV Ascot races in chronological order.

Ascot Saturday 13:30 - No antepost bet

The Sportsbook are one of only three firms to price up the 2m2f175yd novices' handicap chase at 13:30.

There are 18 entries and this has the potential to cut up badly, for all there could be plenty of abandonments in the next few days and Ascot could well be the end destination for many, by accident rather than design.

El Muchacho and Nickle Back are declared at the overnight stage at Stratford on Thursday. Brave Kingdom, Cruz Control , Marble Sands, Monjules, Passing Well, Theatre Man and Tightenourbelts also have alternative options in the next six days.

Furthermore, Jipcot and Joe Dadancer are stablemates in the same ownership, so I doubt they will both run. They would both be significantly out of the handicap if Samarrive runs as well, as the minimum weight in here is 10st 5lb.

Basically, find a runner then and you will be on a good bet.

The one that I was most interested in was Sir Psycho, having been switched from Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls to his impressive nephew Harry Derham, as I simply thought 25/126.00 was on the big side.

Granted, he totally lost his way for Nicholls after finishing fifth in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle and fell at the second at Bangor on his only chasing start to date. But a change of scenery could have rekindled his interest and he has tumbled from a mark of 147 to just 127.

Furthermore, he operates very well in heavy ground.

Apparently, he was due to run at Uttoxeter a fortnight but the chases on the card got cancelled that day (they made it an all-hurdles meeting). I found an interview at the start of October where Derham said the owners wanted to go chasing again but "we won't do it if we don't think he is capable of it" after schooling at home.

I nearly pulled the trigger win-only at 25s but I tried to find out if he is an intended runner (Paul O'Brien is jocked up, for what it is worth) and failed, so I decided to hold fire and revisit his chances if he is confirmed on Thursday morning.

And I suppose Ascot is not an ideal place to give a dodgy novice a re-introduction to fences.

Ascot Saturday 14:05 - No antepost bet

The Sportsbook haven't priced up the 1m7f152yd handicap hurdle at the moment so that leaves us with the two 100k handicap chases at 14:05 and 15:45.

There are only 13 entries for the 2m167yd handicap chase at 14:05 but I didn't have a strong opinion on the race at this stage. I think Saint Segal has some handicap upside but the current 6/17.00 is no bargain.

Once again, I tried without success to find out if another weekend fancy, Zhiguli, was an intended runner in the 2m7f180yd handicap chase at 15:45, so I had a decision to make.

Gary Moore also has Larry in here, and that horse won this race in 2021, so he may rely on him, and keep Zhiguli back for the Paddy Power over 2m4f in a fortnight.

I appreciate a rating of 128 would normally make getting a run in that Cheltenham handicap difficult, and Zhiguli is currently number 33 of 34 for a maximum field of 20 there, well out of the weights, but plenty could fall by the wayside.

However, Moore must surely look at this race and think it could be an ideal spot for both horses.

Ascot Saturday 15:45 - Back Zhiguli

Zhiguli will race off the minimum weight of 10st 2lb if top weight (and jocked up) Eldorado Allen runs, which could be a massive plus in bottomless conditions, and this horse is only 2lb higher than when winning over 2m4f at Sandown in March.

He is a proper mudlark who stays 3m - his best effort probably came in a heavy ground Lingfield win in 2022 - and he has won first time up in the past.

Looking at the race and the weather, I struggle to believe Moore won't run him if he is fit and well. As well as Larry's success in 2021, the trainer also won this race in 2018 and 2016, with Antony winning off 10st 1lb on the latter occasion.

After the horse won at Sandown, Moore said you have to grab the ground (ie soft or worse) while you can with him and Timeform have his heavy ground form figures since 2020, putting aside his first year of racing, as 12113.

Far less impressive is his record of 0 from 5 at Ascot, and they have been pretty poor performances as well. On balance, however, I am willing to take the chance to small stakes at 20/121.00 win-only.

Borderline raceable on Saturday will be lovely.

By the way, Foxy Jacks, Monbeg Genius, Beauport, Mucho Mas and Yeah Man also have alternative engagements this week.

Good luck.

Check out the first episode of Coaching Carter here...