Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Smart money is on Intellogent at York this Saturday

Tony Calvin
05 July 2022
4:00 min read

Tony has three antepost bets in the same race at York on Saturday

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Tony Calvin gives the market for Saturday's John Smith's Cup a spin and finds three antepost bets to recommend for the big race at York...

"Rogue Bear and Mahrajaan head the Betfair Sportsbook's betting at 5/1 but I would just about have Intellogent as the favourite myself, so the 11s looks a tempting price, all right."

Back Intellogent with Betfair Sportsbook Saturday 16:05 York @ 12.011/1

I was going to leave the ante-post action alone this week, and enter three days of ITV racing free of long-term positions, but I imagine the John Smith's Cup Handicap at York at 16:05 - not to be confused with the innovatively-named John Smith's Racing Handicap at 13:45 - will be the biggest betting heat on Saturday, so I will give that a spin.

And I am going to focus on three horses.

Rogue Bear and Mahrajaan head the Betfair Sportsbook's betting at 5/1 but I would just about have Intellogent as the favourite myself, so the 11s looks a tempting price, all right.

For starters, the horse is 4lb well-in after his half-a-length second in the Hunt Cup.

You can probably mark that run up too, considering he was apparently a touch awkward beforehand - I am not going to lie, I have taken that from the in-running comments, rather than witnessing it myself - but anyway, more importantly, he ran from stall four.

The first seven home came from stalls 16-4-15-9-33-12-22, so that makes for impressive reading for his chances here, and the 40/1 chance looked like winning for a while (hit 2.12) before the well-punted course specialist Dark Shift edged him out.

Of course, that was over 1m and this race is over 1m2f56yd, but a run through his record for his previous trainer suggests it shouldn't be an issue at all.

This is a horse who was beaten only a length over an extended 1m2f on soft ground in the 2018 French Derby, so his resurgence under his current handler may not have stopped just yet.

I have no idea if he is an intended runner - I read an interview in the Racing Post with the trainer on Tuesday morning in the hope that the horse was mentioned, given he lines up for this 200k pot as one of the jollies, but no dice - but he is a well-handicapped and ground-versatile (it is currently good to firm at York with very little rain, so I imagine they will water).

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't run if fit and well. Back him win-only at 11s with the Sportsbook.

Price underestimates First View

I am not stopping there, as I am going to do an ante-post first and suggest three bets in one race.

The other pair are set to run in this handicap under 5lb penalties, First View and Jewel In My Crown, and I am backing them too at 20/1 and 40/1 respectively.

As with Double Cherry last Saturday - thankfully my price-sensitive nature made me pull that tip as his odds plummeted (he was given a curious ride I thought in finishing sixth) - I was torn about First View, as he was 40s in a place on Monday afternoon and 33s with the Sportsbook, a price mirrored across the board.

Someone else obviously fancied him as he is now 20s everywhere, but I still feel that price underestimates his chance.

Again, I don't know if he is an intended runner as Godolphin don't need the money and Saaed bin Suroor also has Brilliant Light (also entered at Ascot on Friday, albeit for a much lesser prize) in the race, but he would be a very strong contender in here if given the green light.

He is a lightly-raced 5yo in the form of his life, and he is 1lb well-in after an authoritative win over 1m at Leicester last time.

The big angle with him is the step up in trip. He was strong at the finish at Leicester and, although by Exceed And Excel, his pedigree gives you plenty of hope 1m2f will suit.

The dam was unraced but she had bags of stamina in her genes, being a half-sister to bin Suroor's Gold Cup third Wareed for starters (I like it when the trainer has trained the family), and First View himself is a half-brother to a 2m Flat winner who also scored over 3m over hurdles.

Jewel is riding the crest of wave

The final spike of my three-pronged attack is Jewel In My Crown.

He is 40s with the Sportsbook and indeed everywhere else (for the sake of openness he is actually 50s in a place) and that is quite hard to fathom.
After all, she comes here after an impressive 3 ¼-length win over 1m2f on fast ground at Windsor last time, so she is also 1lb well-in here under her 5lb penalty.

Of course, she is in much deeper waters here off a career-high mark and in comfortably the biggest field she has faced (she has never run against more than 10 rivals and her four wins have come in single-figure fields).

But the facts of the matter are that she is riding on the crest of a wave, is 1lb well-in under optimum conditions and she has a tremendously consistent profile.

I am happy to take that three against the field at this stage, and fingers crossed they all at least rock up, which wasn't the case with Dubai Honour last week.

Go well.