Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Furzig is overpriced at 25/1 to win at Newcastle

• Flagrant Delitiep has big chance at Wincanton

• Nicholls horses dominate Badger Beer market

• 25/126.00 is too big for Newcastle winner

We covered all 16 runners in Aintree's Grand Sefton in Monday's opening ante-post column and Betfair Sportsbook have now priced up the remaining nine ITV Saturday races.

I am very surprised by this, as some firms don't appear to have bothered at all outside of a couple of weekend markets. It means ante-post punters certainly have plenty to go at this week on Betfair.

We can deal with the other terrestrial race on Aintree (remember it looks set to be heavy there, with 22mm now due this week according to the most update forecast) as the 50k 2m4f hurdle at 15:20 has attracted a pretty pitiful six runners.

That said, I am surprised that West Balboa is the Sportsbook's 5/42.25 favourite, not least because she is also entered in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday, a race that could attract a field of just four on the day, if that.

That is an unappealing price on double-entry grounds alone, though admittedly the West Country option over 1m7f looks rather unlikely for a horse that won over 3m last time and has never raced below 2m4f.

We may as well deal with the five races at Wincanton next, then.

The course issued a going update on the BHA site at 9:05pm on Monday night (bizarre timing but welcome nonetheless), and again on Tuesday morning, and it had improved to soft, good to soft in places, from heavy.

They could get around 7mm of rain on Wednesday, but other than that the forecast doesn't look too bad at all (though the course themselves reckon they could get roughly the same amount on Thursday).

Wincanton Saturday 14:25 - No antepost bet

The 70k Grade 2 1m7f50yd Elite Hurdle at 14:25 has attracted just seven entries - the Irish should be targeting these hurdle races and mopping up - and this could easily cut up to just three or four runners on the day.

And they may only get that many because the prize money for second and third is so good (£15,582 and £7,784), and even the fourth home, probably at their own pace, gets a handsome £3,885. It beats working for a living.

Quite what the four runners will be is not easy to call, though.

As I said, West Balboa is also in at Aintree, clearly her most likely target, and three of these are in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham next weekend (Glorious Zoff, Hansard, and Too Friendly).

Furthermore, the 131-rated Molly Ollys Wishes is also in the handicap on the Wincanton card, while Dan Skelton's third entry, Sacre Coeur, is entered over fences at Sandown on Sunday.

Little wonder then that Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls' Rubaud is the 8/111.73 favourite with the Sportsbook.

He is odds-on by default, to some degree. He is undoubtedly the most likely winner, as he is guaranteed to turn up if fit and well, but he is carrying a 6lb penalty for his Ayr win in April and he would probably be suited by better ground.

Wincanton Saturday 15:00 - No antepost bet

You'll be pleased to hear that I am not going to run through all the Wincanton races in exhaustive detail, as you'd be here all day.

The 70k Badger Beer handicap chase at 15:00 is the biggest betting race on this Wincanton card and it has attracted 16 entries (maximum field of 18) and Threeunderthrufive heads the betting at 11/43.75. That looks pretty short to me, for all there are positive vibes about him after a summer wind op.

In fact, Paul Nicholls is also responsible for two other leading lights with the Sportsbook, with last year's winner Frodon at 3/14.00 and the more sprightly Ditcheat 7yo Complete Unknown at 6/17.00.

However, be aware that Nicholls has said recently that Complete Unknown could wait for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next month rather than come here.

The multiple-entry news first here.

Any News is entered in three races on Saturday; Blackjack Magic declined an option to run at Newbury on Thursday (as did stablemate Gustavian) but is in at Exeter on Friday; and Sam Brown also has the option of Sandown on Sunday.

And given Nicholls, Anthony Honeyball, Neil Mulholland and Dan Skelton account for 12 of the 16 runners, this is a tricky race to call from a likely runners' perspective.

Indeed, the market was all over the place first thing at 6am on Tuesday morning from the firms that had bothered to price up the race. The contest wasn't on the Oddschecker grid at this stage, so I had to do the prep the old-fashioned way and do my own homework by going from site to site.

For example, Threeunderthrufive was as big as 7/18.00 elsewhere, while good ground horse Lord Accord, 20s with the Sportsbook, was as low as 13/27.50 with another outfit. And they weren't the only striking differences of opinion.

No-one had a Scooby, it seemed.

Me neither, although the Sportsbook may be right to duck Threeunderthrufive as he looks well treated off 147 now if the breathing tweak has done its job.

And, as the RFO's excellent Andrew Mount pointed out in his column, this horse is unbeaten in four starts on right-handed tracks. Little wonder, that 7s quickly shortened into 5s then, though soft ground may not be totally ideal for him. The 5s then hit 4s.

Wincanton Saturday 13:15 - No antepost bet

Anyway, enough of price differences, is there a bet at Wincanton?

Flagrant Delitiep initially looked overpriced at 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook in the 2m4f conditional jockeys' handicap chase at 13:15.

One concern - actually there are two, the second of which I will come to shortly - is that he normally shows his best after Christmas but the upside is that he ran a lot better than he usually does on his seasonal reappearance at Plumpton last month, beaten under 7 lengths, and he got dropped 2lb for it.

His previous first starts of the season were decidedly more underwhelming. He was beaten 49 lengths in 2019, 26 lengths in 2020, 24 lengths in 2021 and he was pulled up last year.

He also has a very good record at this track, with two wins and four seconds from just nine starts, and indeed he was rated 134 after dotting up here on soft ground in March 2022.

Down to a mere 108 now, he has a big chance. I was all set to tip him at 12s.

But, we move on to that second concern, which I very nearly missed. His trainer Robert Walford also has Ede'iffs Elton (also a Wincanton regular with three wins here) in the race and Harry Kimber is currently jocked up on both, and that means I can't pull the trigger ante-post.

I could be evens to even get a run for my money if I tipped Flagrant Delitiep.

Wincanton Saturday 13:50 & 15:32 - No antepost bet

Knappers Hill is the 11/102.11 favourite in the Rising Stars at 13:50 but it is not a race that interests me, and that just leaves us with the 2m5f82yd mares' handicap hurdle at 15:32.

Nicholls won this race for owners Highclere in 2018 and they team up again with 7/42.75 favourite Lime Avenue . However, with six of the 13 entries priced up between 7/42.75 and 13/27.50, and a further pair at 8s, it wasn't a great surprise that I couldn't see a bet.

Newcastle Saturday 15:50 - Back Furzig each-way

Over to Newcastle, where the only one of the three ITV races that had a betting twist for me was the November Handicap at 15:50, switched to the all-weather this season from Doncaster to ensure it is on.

The big downside to it being at Newcastle is that we have a maximum field of just 14 for the 1m4f handicap (that surprised me) and we have 34 entries, so we are going to get a lot of disappointed connections.

The Sportsbook are paying four places anyway. They will pay the same on Saturday so why not drum up some ante-post interest now would have been their reasoning.

While the gelded Local Dynasty from the ever in-form Charlie Appleby stable, is probably a fair enough favourite at 7/24.50, perhaps the main issue here is whether Laafi and Mr Alan will run again after improved efforts at Newmarket last week, although they did go up 6b and 3lb respectively.

However, I am going to take a small-stakes chance on Furzig each way at 25/126.00 with the Sportsbook, four places.

I would normally go win-only here but I like the price and place combination.

Now, I don't know if he is an intended runner, so hopefully I am not doing my (and crucially your) money in cold blood here, but I am viewing it as a positive that he didn't take up an entry (as opposed not being able to for health reasons) in a 25k 1m2f handicap at Chelmsford on Thursday in order to come here for this 70k handicap.

This Newcastle surface can be an acquired taste so it is a plus that he has won here, and all of his best efforts have come on all-weather surfaces.

Of course, his all-weather mark of 90, as opposed to his turf level of 78, illustrates that but he was rated as high as 104 in 2021 and he has been running well on grass of late.

I am not saying he was unlucky but he had to wait for a run at a crucial stage over an extended 1m2f at York last time and he was never nearer than at the line in fifth. He is more suited to this longer trip too now he is an 8yo.

Assured of a run if his trainer wants it, Furzig looks overpriced to me and he appeals as an each-way bet at 16/117.00 or bigger.

So take the 25s, four places, and hope we can get some bang for our buck with a run, at the very least, this weekend.

Good luck.

Watch this week's episode of Weighed In here...

Read Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Banbou a possible Grand Sefton bet