Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Banbou a possible Grand Sefton bet

• Tony takes antepost aim at the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase

• Sail Away the early market mover

• Frero Banbou of interest if not for double entry

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There are 10 ITV races on Saturday but only one of these, the Grand Sefton at Aintree at 14:45, has been traded long-term on Betfair from a fixed-odds and Betfair Exchange perspective.

So it was no surprise to see the prices for that race reappear quickest on Monday afternoon, and I will dedicate this column solely to that contest.

There will be a second ante-post column late on Tuesday afternoon once everything else for the weekend has been priced up.

And that will include the November Handicap, controversially switched from Doncaster to Newcastle last week.

No doubt it is very deep at Donny and the switch to the all-weather guarantees the meeting will go ahead, but one of the reasons they cited was the weather forecast, but currently only around 8mm is due there all this week.

Gruelling conditions likely at Aintree

There were 27 entries for the 2m5f handicap chase over the National fences prior to Monday's 10am five-day confirmation stage and now we are down to 16.

The going at Aintree on the Grand National course is currently heavy, soft in places - the other tracks are soft, heavy in places - and I am afraid the forecast suggests it will not dry out by the weekend.

On the contrary, the main site I use has 22mm coming from Tuesday into Friday, so it is going to be grim and gruelling.

I have to proceed on the basis of heavy all over by race-time at the weekend.

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Gesskille likely the same price on day of race

Gesskille has topped the market for a while and understandably so. When the prices started to filter through around 1pm on Monday, his price ranged from 7/24.50 to 5/16.00 in the marketplace. The 5s was taken and he is 5.69/2 on the exchange, and [10/3] with the Sportsbook.

He comes here after netting a near 50k pot at Auteuil in September - I wouldn't have a clue as to the strength of that form but the runner-up ran second in a Grade 3 handicap on his next start and the UK assessor seems to have ignored the win for handicapping purposes. While he blew out in the Topham, he only got chinned by a nose in this race last year before also finishing second in the Becher over 3m2f on his following start.

There is nothing not to like about his chance, but I'd say he will probably be available at 9/25.50 on the Betfair Exchange win-only on the day if the field stands up to any meaningful degree.

How many of the 16 are going to want to run on proper heavy ground is open to some doubt.

I'll go through the others one by one, in weight order for no particular reason.

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Sail Away the early price mover

Sail Away, Minella Trump and Fantastic Lady head the handicap off 12st.

Sail Away was confirmed at the five-day stage for the Charlie Hall last week but whether he wants the ground this deep is questionable. He was pulled out on officially soft at Chepstow last year - while Minella Trump's best efforts have been under decent conditions (though he handles soft) and he showed very little earlier in the year as well, though his effort in the Grand National may have been a little better than the bare form would suggest.

Minella Trump's trainer Donald McCain also has Presentandcounting (off 11st 4lb in here) but he is a good ground horse and an unlikely runner on that basis.

This has apparently been the plan for Topham runner-up Fantastic Lady for a while, and though she has won on ground Timeform has called heavy in the past (Bangor in 2022), the suspicion remains that she is better on a better surface. The Timeform mob called the Topham ground good to soft, by the way.

I'd take a watching ante-post brief on her at around 7s on the exchange (9/25.50 with the Sportsbook), but, ground concerns or not, Sail Away has been the big mover/shortener on Monday, I see.

Perhaps a lot of people saw that Charlie Hall entry and are assuming a mark of 145 is enticing for this progressive 7yo. The Sportsbook are top about him at 10/111.00.

Nassalam is next up on 11st 11lb and he loves pretty of dig, and he has won after a break before, and he is a runner at 12/113.00 on the Exchange. I was surprised to see he is still only six, the youngster of the party.

Born By The Sea off 11st 9lb has been pretty busy of late and not running particularly well but he was beaten only 10 lengths in the Grand National when 6lb out of the handicap, and 2m5f in this ground will suit him a lot better than 2m2f at Galway last time.

That explains why he is in single figures across the board despite some apparent modest showings of late, and the fact that his trainer has won with his last two runners is no negative. He is 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook.

Now Where Or When is also on 11st 9lb and the last time we saw him he was when pulling up in the Irish Grand National in April.

He is another for whom the jury is out for heavy ground but he won over an extended 2m first time up last season and he had some decent 3m novice form in 2022.

The trainer also has Dorking Cock (10st 11lb) in here and that entry from the hunter chase scene is much harder to gauge.

Cooper's Cross, off 11st 5lb, certainly isn't, as the Scottish Grand National runner-up has a big form chance here, just 3lb higher than at Ayr. He finished a good third here over the Mildmay fences in December and he was going well when broadsided, and falling, in the Topham here in April. That wasn't his fault.

Connections think he is better on a decent surface though - he has also been pulled out twice on account of heavy ground - so I wouldn't touch him ante-post myself. He is 13/27.50 fixed-odds but currently trades at 11.521/2 on the exchange.

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Frero Banbou on the shortlist

Venetia Williams mentioned this as a possible target for Frero Banbou in a recent trainer interview and this horse is firmly on my shortlist for this race.

A mark of 133 definitely underplays the horse's talents - he was rated 142 when second on his return at Ascot last season before failing to kick on - and I reckon this trip will bring out the best in him, despite the fact that he blew out at Cheltenham over an extended 2m4f in the Plate.

Some of his better efforts have come on heavy ground and no way in the world would I lay him at anywhere near his current price of 17.533/2 on the exchange.

The big problem for me is that he is also entered over his more usual trip of around 2m at Sandown on Sunday, and I suppose there is also the possibility his trainer could wait for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham a week on Saturday, too.

And the fact that the Sportsbook are 10/111.00, when he is six points bigger elsewhere is an even bigger factor. I can't really tip at Exchange prices ante-post as the markets are too fluid.

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Percussion will love testing Aintree conditions

Ganapathi (11st) is going to have to leave his Kelso reappearance a long way behind to figure here but the next one down in the weights, Percussion off 10st 11lb, is undeniably interesting.

He was actually nibbled at over the weekend, with all the 20/121.00 being taken about him, and he is just half that price now at 10/111.00.

Like most people I imagine, I have a lot of time for Laura Morgan, but it obviously isn't ideal that she hasn't had a winner since June, though she has had a couple of horses run well in defeat recently, notably her 152-rated stable star Notlingtilmay at Cheltenham.

Percussion was third in this race off 133 first time up last season, and occupied the same position in the Becher off 130 on his next start, so I reckon a mark of 128 is ripe for exploiting, especially on the likely ground.

He is one from one on officially heavy ground, and that will bring his proven 3m+ stamina into play over this 2m5f trip. He was doing all his best work late on good to soft ground in this race last season.

One nagging doubt, aside maybe that trainer form, is that is Timeform called it heavy when he ran poorly at Kempton in January, but maybe those two Aintree efforts had left a mark and he was given a break afterwards.

Either way, I can see him being 10s on the day, so I will leave him alone. He is also 12/113.00 in a couple of places, which played a role in that decision, too.

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Yccs Portocervo big chance in hat-trick bid

Dr Richard Newland won this race with Beau Bay in 2020 and his Yccs Portocervo (10st 10lb) comes into this race on a hat-trick and his good ground profile was punctuated by a win on soft at Uttoxeter two starts ago.

Timeform actually called that heavy ground so, 13lb higher here after a win at the same track since, I think the Sportsbook are right to duck him at 14/115.00 when 25s is the general market price.

All the 16 entries in here are in the handicap and the five-day field is finalised by Half Shot (10st 5lb) and Fix It All (10st 4lb), with the minimum weight carried 10st 2lb.

Half Shot is prominent in the betting at 8/19.00 after a good comeback run at Kelso, with Fix It All one of the outsiders of the party at 25/126.00.

In summary, I wanted to be with Frero Banbou, but I am not going to break my double-entry rule for him, especially with Cheltenham in 12 days an option too.

I also wanted bigger than 10s about Percussion, and the 14s about Yccs Portocervo, so I am going to sit this one out for now.

Back tomorrow for the other weekend ITV races. No doubt we will find a bet there.

Good luck.

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Watch this week's episode of Weighed In here...

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