Tony Calvin: Two antepost tips for British Champions Day at Ascot

• Tony previews British Champions Day at Ascot

• Mud lover chanced in Champions Sprint

• Two from two on heavy gives Migration a chance in Balmoral

There was a time not so long ago when some of horseracing's better writers - chief among them the superb Chris McGrath - roundly questioned and criticised the presence of Qipco British Champions Day in the racing calendar, arguing its post-Arc and pre-Breeders' Cup slot, on what was odds-on to be deep ground, was a monied shoehorn too far for the sport.

First run in 2011, when the organisers got very lucky with a certain Frankel rocking up on his final 3yo start, it's fair to say that it is hard to find a sole dissenter these days, and trainers are actually holding back horses to run on the day.

Or at least not being scared to back them up quickly after the Arc meeting.

Get set for very testing ground

The ground hasn't been that bad on this day on occasions in the past 12 years, but it definitely looks like we are looking at testing ground this weekend.

Very testing.

The ground was described as soft at 9:10am on Monday morning and only makers of umbrellas and raincoats will be happy with the forecast from Wednesday onwards.

And the connections of absolute slop monsters.

The BHA site reckons "total rainfall current estimates from Wednesday to Saturday are between 15mm and 20mm."

However, we have a slight difference of opinion, Geoffrey, as the main weather site I use currently has 11mm landing on Wednesday, 5.7mm on Thursday, 20mm on Friday and 3.2mm on Saturday.

Oof!

All sites seem to agree it is lashing down from Wednesday to Saturday anyway, after a fine start to the week, so we are probably looking at maybe officially soft ground on Saturday, but heavy in reality.

On that front, Ascot have just announced that they could even switch races on the round course to the inner Flat track as late as 8am on Saturday morning if heavy is set to be in the going description.

Not ideal, that.

We have six races to go at on Saturday, and all have been priced up ante-post, so we have relatively established markets.

Let's take them in chronological order.

Long Distance Cup: No Antepost Bet

Looking at the five-day fields, I wouldn't say Ascot are over-blessed with numbers at this stage, and only 10 were confirmed for the Long Distance Cup at 13:15. Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami was ruled out, as pretty much expected given a well-publicised setback a while ago.

Kyprios and Trueshan predictably dominate the betting for this Group 2 at 6/52.20 and 9/43.25 respectively with the Sportsbook. The latter is going for his fourth straight win in the race.

Saying that, I am little surprised that Kyprios is as short as that, though the 6/52.20 is actually the biggest price around, with a little bigger available on the exchange at a weak 2.6213/8.

He is the best stayer around on his day, no doubt, and he was a runaway winner on bottomless ground at Longchamp last season, but he didn't pull up any trees on his belated return at the Curragh last month and he will have to come on appreciably for that run.

And there is also a chance he could regress from that first start back, given his 2023 problems.

I am also actually a touch surprised that the layers are still betting 1,2,3 on the race as it isn't hard to see three defecting before the weekend, especially if the worst of the rain forecasts materialise.

Champions Sprint: Back Vadream @ 14/115.00

Last year's winner Kinross heads the betting for the Champions Sprint at 13:50 at 2/13.00 , with Betfair Sprint Cup disappointment Shaquille at 7/24.50, and 7/18.00 and bigger bar two for the Group One race, which had 18 confirmations on Monday.

I've no real issues with Kinross' price, but I imagine the forecast will point many in the direction of Vadream, one of the aforementioned slop monsters set to run on the card.

She shaped well off a break on good ground here last time (Timeform actually called it good to firm, quicker than the original good) and we all know she is a far more destructive weapon on much slower ground.

I wouldn't say she has a great record at the track - though she has won here and she ran well enough as an 80/181.00 poke in this race last season - but she simply excels in the mud.

The only time she has raced on officially heavy ground, she bolted up at Donny in April, and her record on soft reads 37131, with the most recent win being a defeat of Nunthorpe victor Live In The Dream in the Palace House Stakes in May. Both were very good time figures.

I'd say she is a very fair price at the Sportsbook's 14/115.00. That is the general price but she is 16s in three places.

It's a stretch to say she is a Group 1 mare but very deep is a great leveller, and I'd be nearer 10s than 16s though, so I am happy to recommend a bet 14/115.00 on this occasion.

Take the 16s if you can though clearly, as I am not blind to the obvious. She also trades at 16.015/1 on the exchange as this goes live, but I obviously cannot tip at that price in a lightly-traded, ante-post market.

Rohaan is currently 21.020/1 there and that isn't a bad price either for a horse who is five from nine at this track.

Fillies And Mares': No Antepost Bet

Free Wind is 3/14.00 favourite for the Fillies And Mares' at 14:25, which makes no appeal after her Arc run. Mind you she is at least a point bigger on the exchange,

In short, the race, which has 18 still in it for a maximum field of 14 on the day, made limited betting appeal at this stage, though Rue Boissonade was undoubtedly the most interesting at her opening 33/134.00 on Monday.

The problem is that I don't have the first clue if she is an intended runner, and I am trying to minimise ante-post shows for obvious reasons, but 33s was too big about this heavy ground winner on her Group One fourths in the Vermeille (looked a bit awkward and a touch too keen, but stayed on well) and Royallieu (met far more trouble than in the in-running comment would suggest).

The Timeform going descriptions of those efforts were good and good to firm respectively there, so maybe she will improve in deeper conditions.

Having watched the replays of all of her runs, I really wanted to tip her at 33/134.00, so I asked around whether she is a likely runner, as her trainer is a rare traveller to the UK (just two runners in the last five years, as well as being a lifetime 0 from 14 at Ascot, albeit he has had two seconds at the course).

I didn't get anything back, either way, positive or negative, so I was left with a decision.

Would I risk another ante-post non-runner at 33/134.00, and back her and tip her here? The bottom line is that I decided I would.

The question was made redundant when the Sportsbook cut her from 33/134.00 to 20/121.00 at 3pm on Monday, so I had to ask myself a second question.

Was 20s still big enough? The answer was yes. However, she was cut to a mere 12/113.00 10 minutes before this column went live, so I had to pull the tip. Annoying to say the least.

She was also very impressive when winning a Group 2 on Bastille Day on ground Timeform called good, though that was a very weak race for that grade.

The 5/16.00 third favourite Via Sistina is also in the Champion Stakes at 15:45 later on in the card, by the way.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: No Antepost Bet

Next up is the QEII with 14 entries at 15:00 and regular readers and podcast listeners will know that I have been intending to be all over Nashwa for this race for a while, given I think she is a stone-cold miler with dig in the ground.

However, connections have also left her in the Champion Stakes, so I have to take a raincheck on her until I see Thursday's final fields. Double-entries means no interest for me.

Champion Stakes: No Antepost Bet

Paddington is also in both the QEII and Champion Stakes at 15:45 - surely he and Nashwa will go for the mile option in this likely ground - and I didn't have much of a betting opinion in either race at the moment.

Balmoral Handicap: Back Migration E/W @ 16/117.00

We have 32 entries for the Balmoral Handicap at 16:25, a race that can take a maximum field of 20 on the day.

The Sportsbook are playing very fair in offering five places here.

I am getting sick and tired of tipping Escobar, so thankfully the Sportsbook are going bottom price of 20/121.00 about him - he is as big as 33s elsewhere - so that was a relief. I couldn't tip at that market differential, as with Certain Lad on Saturday unfortunately.

I am going to keep this very simple though and tip Migration at 16/117.00 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

He is two from two on officially heavy ground and, while he has a tough job on here off 113, he deserves that mark on the manner in which laughed at Awaal and Baradar in the Lincoln off 107.

The trainer has had two of his twelve 2023 winners in the last 11 days, the horse goes very well when fresh and he could just outclass these.

He went off a 15/28.50 chance on the back of a 182-day break in this race last year and, while I wouldn't say he was unlucky, he would have been a lot closer had he got a clear run up the far rail, having been started the race on the near side from his draw in 23 of 23.

I would hope and expect this race has been his target once again.