Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Frero Banbou to get Williams winning

• TC's early Saturday Ascot assessment
• Rain should favour stars
• Backs Williams runner at promising second

I think most of us woke up to rain on Tuesday morning - those of you lucky enough to sleep, that is - and the people at Ascot, in particular, would have been delighted.

It is currently good (good to firm in places) at the Berkshire track, although that will be revised shortly no doubt, as they had got a whopping 17mm since midnight as at midday on Tuesday, according to Turftrax. The forecast for the rest of week gives you plenty of encouragement there will be more than enough dig for the superstars to strut their stuff.

Hard to see Henderson's superstar losing

Maybe we should be talking about superstar singular at this stage - we will come to L'Homme Presse in a moment - as everything looks set for Constitution Hill to line up in the Coral Hurdle at 14:40.

Anyone so minded to back him at 1/4 ante-post will certainly be hoping that he does rock up - and Nicky Henderson has apparently said today that it is no gimme, so be careful - and it is very hard to see the devastatingly impressive, 170-rated Supreme Hurdle winner getting beaten here.

Hitman could kill off L'Homme Presse's chances

Some may say the same about L'Homme Presse at 4/6 in the Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase at 14:05, but I wouldn't be so sure.

For a start I think he is defensively priced up, and he may not even start favourite if Hitman comes here instead of Haydock - it sounds like Paul Nicholls is leaning towards Newton Le Willows at the moment but plans can change - and you'd have to be a touch worried about the stable form.

Going into Tuesday's racing (and she has one or two decent chances on the day, so keep 'em peeled there), Venetia Williams hasn't had a winner since April. We are obviously dealing with a small sample here, and she has had a few seconds of late, but Williams has had 13 horses beaten at odds of 4/1 or shorter in the past 11 days.

For all L'Homme Presse looked great when winning the Brown Advisory in soft ground at the Festival, I certainly would not be backing him at his current odds first time up, for all he seemingly goes well when fresh.

And, like I said, if the race-fit Hitman comes here then he could have his work well cut out.

Frero has fair chance

The 2m167yd handicap chase at 15:15 on the card looks a very competitive, 13-strong handicap and I'd expect the numbers to hold up, though Sizing Pottsie, Kiltealy Briggs and Amoola Gold do have alternative engagements.

So perhaps there is no massive juice in any of the prices on show.

But, tin hat at the ready, I think Frero Banbou is a fair, small-stakes, win-only bet at 12/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Now, there are negatives.

I fully appreciate he is trained by a certain Venetia Williams and he probably doesn't have the handicap upside of some of the market leaders.

And I suppose there is a possibility that they will keep him back for the 2m Newbury handicap a week on Saturday, a race in which he finished third last year, or indeed look to step him up in trip, as the trainer stated was a possibility in a recent interview.

In fact, he trod the Ascot-Newbury path last year, taking in the handicap at the former track in which he finished such a promising second last month, splitting Thyme White and Before Midnight, who could well re-oppose here.

And that reappearance second is why you have to give him a chance here, I feel. I know I questioned the stable form but this is a horse who has already come out and showed his well-being and the expected, further rain through the week is great news for him.

He won at Lingfield in heavy ground last season, finished third in the Grand Annual on the same going, and you had to like the way he travelled into his race last month. He went through the race very kindly for his jockey, and that certainly wasn't the case on occasions last season.

In fact, he did miraculously well to finish third at Cheltenham considering how far he got detached early on, and that was off just 1lb higher mark than this.

If he strips a lot fitter for his comeback run, on more favourable deeper ground, and travels with as much interest from the off - you don't want to be getting behind around here - then he could just be up to winning this.

He is currently 15.014/1 in a lightly-traded market on the Betfair Exchange but I think the win-only 12s with the Sportsbook is the fair recommendation.

I am not going mad though, as he clearly isn't a definite runner, so maybe you will want to wait and support him if and when he is confirmed for the race on Thursday.

The decision is yours, but I am playing small now.

Decisions await for Betfair Chase Day at Haydock

We have already discussed the Betfair Chase - you can read here - and they were also getting plenty of rain on Tuesday morning.

Those who have taken a swing at Hitman for the King George will be hoping he justifies 8/13 favouritism in the Betfair Graduation Chase at 13:50 - though, as mentioned, he has that Ascot option, too - and there are two good healthy size handicaps on the ITV running order, as well.

I don't think I would be in too much of a hurry trying to get Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar beaten in the Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle at 14:25, though he is priced up accordingly at 3/1 in the 18-strong race and all his best efforts over hurdles and on the Flat have come on better ground, for all he has won in deeper conditions.

I suppose he could miss the race if conditions got very deep then but, against that, this is worth nearly 72k to the winner and the trainer did namecheck this race (if got exactly naming it, if you get my drift) after the smooth-as-silk Ces win.

It does look a pretty deep and competitive contest though - there are five others priced in single figures and you can make a case for a few in the double-digits too - so I will wait until Thursday before making a betting decision.

By the way, Good Risk At All, Call Me Lord and Belargus are all doubly-entered this week, while the Irish weekend decs are not known for the time of asking with regards to the favourite and Gordon Elliott's Tronador. Maybe they have possibilities at home.

The 3m1f125yd Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at 15:35 has attracted 17 entries, but I couldn't see any value in getting involved at the moment. It has been tightly priced up and I'd imagine we may be getting four places after the overnight stage, instead of the current three.

That said, Bobhopeornohope, Houston Texas, Innisfree Lad and The Big Breakaway all have alternative engagements this week, some are entered for early-closers in the next fortnight, and Tallow For Coal and Rapid Flight are due to run at Lingfield and Hexham respectively on Tuesday and Wednesday so maybe it will cut up.

And I never could understand why there are 4yo+ 3m4f and 3m1f+ handicap chases on this card, even if they are in different bands of 0-135 and 0-145.

Good luck.