Tony Calvin: Ground conditions point towards Bristol De Mai in Betfair Chase

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It seems like single-figure fields for Graded races is going to the common theme for the 2022-23 National Hunt season, so we better get used to it.

Only five entries for Haydock's Betfair Chase on Saturday, nine in the Grade 2 chase at Ascot, and the same number in the Coral Hurdle on the same card.

At least we have the prospect of some of the sport's star names appearing this weekend - A Plus Tard and Constitutional Hill to name but two - so let's hope the ground plays ball and they rock up.

Ascot is currently good (good to firm in places) but the weather site I primarily use (though it does tend to predict extremes) has 25mm of rain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, so hopefully they will be fine, as regards the ground being too quick.

And, in any case, the track is going to decide about watering on Wednesday if they don't get plenty of the wet stuff before then.

It is good to soft at Haydock, with soft in places on the chase course, and the yr.no website currently has 45mm landing from Tuesday to Saturday, though others predict about half of that.

I am going to deal solely the Betfair Chase here - basically on the basis that if I didn't do so voluntarily, I would be told to - but I dare say a second ante-post column will be arriving on Tuesday afternoon, too.

We have an exchange market on the race as well as the Betfair Sportsbook pricing it up, and it is no surprise that A Plus Tard is as short as 2/5 on the fixed-odds front taking on a maximum of four, vastly inferior rivals.

Actually, I am mildly surprised we got five standing their ground - in its 18-year history the race has never attracted a double-figure field, even when the Betfair Million bonus was in operation - as I imagined some connections may have been tempted to keep their horse fresh for the King George now that Allaho is out of that very winnable Kempton race.

That said, I half-expected someone would stump up the £7.2k supplementary fee, with so much cash on offer, but then again would you fancy locking horns with A Plus Tard, and paying seven bags for the privilege?

A Plus Tard is being opposed on the exchange (in contrast to the fixed odds price anyway) at 1.51, and some may see that as a gift, given the horse won this race in a canter by 22 lengths last year and hosed up in the Gold Cup by 15 lengths.

If he turns up and is on his A-game, he wins, pure and simple - rated 180, he has 16lb and more in hand of this field - but I guess the layers think they have a chance of getting him beaten if it does turn heavy, or even on the basis that he could be a no-show for whatever reason.

It is worth remembering that before his reappearance win in this race last year, he had been beaten on his seasonal debuts in 2018, 2019 and 2020, at odds of 7/4, 5/4 and 1/2.

Protektorat is 10/3 second favourite (around 4s on the exchange) but last year's distant Gold Cup third is never I horse I have warmed to for some strange reason, given his excellent overall profile, and I'd be looking at Bristol De Mai as his main danger. He isn't a bad win-only price at 13.012/1 on the exchange.

I appreciate he has a patchy profile these days and is now an 11yo, and he also blew out in this race last year when an 11/4 chance.

But he ran two good races in defeat afterwards before again running below par at Aintree, and this three-time Betfair Chase winner could be a big factor here if the top end of the forecast rain arrives this week.

I know Eldorado Allen was seemingly coming back for more at the end of the Charlie Hall over 3m on good to soft last time, and he basically came out as the same horse as the winner Bravemansgame at the weights, but I don't see him relishing 3m on soft ground (or even deeper) around here. We know how attritional it can get at Haydock.

Which brings us to the 20/1 outsider Frodon, perhaps a surprise confirmation on Monday after what seemed a lung-busting win off top weight in the Badger Beer just nine days ago.

Perhaps Paul Nicholls was never going to pass up such a money-making opportunity in a small field for his owners -and it is £5,320 for fifth, remember - and his horse certainly has the class to feature here.

However, he was beaten a long way behind Lostintranslation and Bristol de Mai on good to soft ground in this race in 2019, and it will be deeper this year.

And maybe they won't run him if it gets too deep (though he is actually three from four on heavy) and go to the King George as a fresher horse, so I would hold fire if you fancy him.

In summary, A Plus Tard is probably a very fair price at 1/2 on the exchange, and Bristol De Mai a close second at 12s, but I'd rather wait to see ground conditions towards the end of the week.

Back tomorrow.