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TC previews Leopardstown and Doncaster
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Sharjah looks promising in Matheson Hurdle
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Storm Control can improve on heart-breaking second
There are only two races with more than seven runners in the ITV action from Leopardstown and Doncaster on Thursday, so I again make no apologies for keeping it high and tight, as the Americans would say.
Sharjah is best placed to down State Man
Talking of yanks, I wonder how confident Rich Ricci is that one of his pair of Sharjah and Vauban will be able to down stablemate State Man in the Matheson Hurdle at 14:20 over in Ireland.
The conspiracy theorists will be pondering whether Team Closutton will allow Sharjah to win his fifth consecutive race in this Grade 1, and you would imagine he would have been primed for this. He is going great guns at home by all accounts.
The vibes about ownermate and Triumph Hurdle winner Vauban have been lukewarm and Pied Piper looks a level below these, but State Man is obviously a bigger stumbling block.
That said, the 5yo is 8/13 against the 10/3 available about the 9yo Sharjah, and the latter has only four lengths to find on their Morgiana run last time, so the bet probably lies with the Sharjah if there is one. But I am not inclined a force a bet.
That also applies to the six-runner Grade 3 mares' hurdle at 13:10, which looks a straight fight between Queens Brook and Shewearsitwell, at 10/11 and 5/4 respectively.
The withdrawal of Mighty Potter has left the Grade 1 Novice Chase at 13:45 with just the seven runners.
The 16-runner novice handicap hurdle at 14:55 obviously looked more promising numbers-wise but, Sod's Law, the horse I fancied most, Conna Cottage is due to run in the second at Leopardstown on Wednesday.
Storm Control ready to do the business
Back home to Donny it is then and it is disappointing that one of the ITV races is a five-runner mares' chase when that could have easily been switched for the meatier, betting-friendly handicaps on the card.
That leaves us with the 3m handicap chase at 14:40 and it is actually a very competitive heat, one in which you can fancy a fair few.
The most interesting is Boldmere for new connections. He actually won this race by 10 lengths in 2019 and is 5lb lower (he would have won the Grade 2 Towton afterwards too, but for falling) but he has certainly not been missed in the market at around 7s on the Betfair Exchange considering this is his first start for 607 days.
I know long absences mean very little these days, but even so.
He is a similar price to the in-form Nestor Park, who hails from a yard with a sensational strike rate of 43 per cent with its chasers this season. Ben Pauling is certainly doing the business at his new gaff.
However, I am going to take a chance with Storm Control. He was 16/1 in a few places on Wednesday morning - yes today is Wednesday - but I am not going to let disappeared, inflated prices put me off and I suggest you back him at 12.011/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange.
There is plenty of 11s and 12s out there in the marketplace.
The big downside to his chance (though Kerry Lee could be in better form, too) is that this front-runner could be taken on for the lead by three or four others in here. But I will have to rely on Richard Patrick to keep it sensible if it is burn-up central.
Storm Control doesn't need to make it anyway, as he showed when a heart-breaking second over course and distance last January.
He only took it up 4 out there, traded 1.041/25 when at least four lengths clear for his 10lb claimer jumping the last, only for Windsor Avenue to nail him on the run-in. Next-time-out winner Cap Du Nord was 16 lengths away in third.
That was Storm Control's second good effort around here from three runs (he has also won over 2m3f at the track) and he is now 5lb lower, and he certainly ran far better than a beaten distance of 16 lengths would suggest in the 2m4f Paddy Power last time.
He can take a while to build up his fighting fitness, so the 9yo is hopefully ready to do the business now on his third start of the season (he has won on it in the last three campaigns) and with a visor on for the first time. Mind you, Lee is 0 from 4 with this headgear option, for the sake of openness.
That's me done for now. Go well.