Sunday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has 3/1 and 8/1 bets on Irish Derby day

• Auguste Rodin long odds-on for Derby double

• Tony is hoping 3/14.00 His Majesty will be at his service

• Generous handicap mark for 8/19.00 British raider in sprint

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I had to do a double-take earlier in the week when I saw ITV were covering the Irish Derby meeting on Sunday and were fleshing it out with races from Cartmel and Uttoxeter - I can't readily recall having a bet at the former course - but I suppose the two jumps tracks will be glad of the exposure before the BHA's Premierisation plan probably whisks it away next year.

Still, talking about three National Hunt races is hardly akin to digging a trench, so let's get on with the picks.

See what I did there?

Curragh - 15:40: No Bet

Ireland first though, and the betting suggests the Irish Derby at 15:40 should be a penalty kick for Auguste Rodin.

Normally, I would scoff at such cliches being trotted out, but I am led to believe the probability of a penalty in Soccerball being scored is 1/41.25, and that was basically the Derby winner's price ante-post (if you took the worst price admittedly).

The Sportsbook have rather ruined that staged line by offering him at 1/31.33, though, as they were 2/71.29 on Thursday. Mind you, their offer of 4/91.44 on Friday was swiftly accommodated.

However, at 3s-on, I must admit I'd rather (very marginally) be a layer than a backer as that Guineas blow-out remains relatively fresh in the mind, and the angle I was considering when we recorded Racing Only Bettor on Thursday was to do a reverse forecast/exacta on the Epsom third and fourth, White Birch and Sprewell, and hope the favourite blows out again.

Time has already shown that the Derby was a strong renewal this year, with subsequent successes for the runner-up King Of Steel and the sixth Waipiro, and that formline could dominate again at the Curragh.

I am probably just clutching at straws looking for a bet that doesn't exist - and the presence of four other Ballydoyle colts will make life interesting for the rest - even though I will probably throw a few quid on the above forecast and hope the jolly has another mystifying off-day and that the other Epsom form stands up.

Curragh - 13:50: Back His Majesty

The Irish Derby is the fourth Curragh race on ITV's coverage, which kicks off with the Group 2 Railway Stakes at 13:50.

I was very taken by the way His Majesty travelled into the Norfolk and finished off his race, but unfortunately Ryan Moore found himself on the wrong side and a 2 ½-length fourth seriously underplays his effort.

The step back to up to 6f will surely suit but I was going to let him go untipped and unbacked, until I saw Wayne Lordan got the ride (he rode the horse here previously) and his price is obviously bigger than I was expecting as a result.

That presented a dilemma.

If Moore had been on, we clearly wouldn't be getting 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook - he is a similar price on the exchange - but does he ride the fresh, unexposed Unquestionable because they are worried about the quick turnaround for His Majesty?

Or are their pedigree politics at play because Unquestionable is a Wootton Bassett?

I have to walk the walk after talking the talk about jockeys not being that important, so back His Majesty at 4.03/1 or bigger (or on the Sportsbook).

I get the feeling that they were gutted after the Norfolk, as there were chunks of money for him late doors there (he was backed from 17/29.50 to 11/26.50 on the show, and his Betfair SP was only 6.611/2).

Curragh - 15:00: Back Came From The Dark

The 11-runner 6f Listed race at 14:25 is not a betting heat for me either, though Commanche Falls certainly looks the one to beat for Michael Dods. He was never going to be missed in the market though - he is 2.789/5 on the exchange - and, if he cops, he may not be the only British winner on the card.

I'd have preferred it if the 19-runner handicap at 15:00 wasn't over 5f -the ultimate lottery for punters outside of 2yo races - but Came From The Dark could make a successful smash-and-grab raid for Ed Walker, currently in the middle of a golden spell. He has had 11 winners since June 20th, which is some going , as he has had only 29 victories all season.

Came From The Dark hasn't won since taking a Group 3 at Sandown in July 2021, after which he was rated 108, but he has now slipped to a mark of just 89 here (crucially, the same as his UK level) and now may be the time for him to strike.

He has run perfectly well on all four starts this term too, for which he has been dropped a very generous 8lb - surely far too generous - and his jockey will look to deliver him late from his midfield draw.

He was a ridiculously big 18/119.00 and [16/]1 early on Friday, but I am happy to back him at half those odds, even if his trainer was quoted as saying this was an "afterthought" on Friday, as he was already bringing over Miss Roberts for the Group 2 on Saturday. These point-and-shoot sprint handicappers are a law unto themselves anyway, and don't need much prepping.

One of my major failings is sulking when I have missed the big prices for tipping purposes, but I am genuinely happy to stick him up at 9.08/1 or bigger on the exchange (he is also 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook if you want to play him there each way, five places).

Hopefully, he will drift back out as I will be settling at Betfair SP, but 8/19.00 looks fair to me. For the sake of openness, he is 10/111.00 in a place.

The other British raider in the race, Michaelas Boy, certainly isn't out of it, either at 20/121.00 and I may have a small wager on him, too.

Uttoxeter - 15:12: No Bet

Now, on to the jumps and, to be honest, I wasn't expecting thunder and lightning to strike me when looking at the cards.

The 75k 3m2f Summer Cup at Uttoxeter at 15:12 is a great pot , so I suppose it is a little disappointing the track didn't get a maximum field of 20 for it. Still, 16 is certainly not to be sniffed in the current climate.

In fact, it is a triumph, so don't listen to me moaning.

Now, there were a few in the race that interested me, but Kalooki rather smashes you in the face having joined Christian Williams from Philip Hobbs on a mark some 22lb lower than his peak rating.

As trainer upgrades go, I'd say that was rather significant, for all I have no idea of how long the Welshman has had the horse, who last ran on New Year's Eve.

If Williams can coax him back to anywhere near his best of 2020 and 2021, then he could well win this en route to better things, though on the face if it he comes into the race as a 9yo firmly on the downgrade.

So it all came down to the price, and one of the first firms up on Friday made him a 20/121.00 poke, a price I wouldn't have laid at gunpoint at this stage (it is still available).

But I decided it was too much of a guessing game. Williams could well have a 0-110 in mind for the horse in October, and prefer to win this with his recurring plot horse (and favourite) Cap Du Nord, for all I know, after a few more quiet runs over the summer.

Cartmel - 14:05 & 14:40: No Bets

There are also two decent fields for the pair of ITV races at Cartmel too, as there should be for the prize money on offer.

The 2m5f handicap chase at 14:05 is worth 40k and a handsome pot of £21,124 awaits the winner of the 2m1f handicap hurdle at 14:40 - I bet the bookies will be on alert for any move for Band Of Outlaws off a mark of just 118, having been dropped an amazing 24lb for his previous five runs in 2023 (one firm briefly made him a mad 20/121.00 on Friday) - but I will cut straight to the chase and say I have no betting interest in either contest.

I am not even giving you token selections, because I have no intention of having a punt myself, however small.

Go well.

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Read Ryan Moore's views on his five ride on Irish Derby day.