-
Tony Calvin has three 'Williams' tips at Lingfield
-
Frero Banbou and Laskalin fancied for Venettia
-
Jane's Moka De Vassy an each-way play
We are waiting on 2pm and 3pm inspections respectively at Lingfield and Fakenham today to see if Sunday meetings can go ahead.
And I'm guessing they'll be looking again in the morning as well.
It could be that the bitterly cold temperatures on Thursday night did for both tracks there and then - Lingfield nearly hit -9 on top of already rock-hard ground - and, while it is getting warmer (my bald head informs me this is a relative term), the main weather site I use still has both courses dipping below freezing again on Saturday night.
And Lingfield actually got to as low -6.7 on Friday night.
Ideally, I would wait and file after the inspections, but plans meant I am going early and hoping for the best. We could still be waiting tomorrow morning, anyway.
The Lingfield ITV action is set to kick off with many of the best UK 2m novice chasers in a five-runner contest at 13:15 but it is not a punting heat for me.
It is a tight-knit race on ratings, with Matata coming out the best horse in the race by 2lb on the official revised figures (the first firm up on Friday bizarrely made him their 7s outsider, and that was unsurprisingly cut into 5s after just 16 minutes, and it has been all downhill ever since).
That Cheltenham run last time , when he hit 1.051/20 in running, was a cracking handicap effort off 143 in a good time.
But I am not inclined to force a tip or a bet in a race where a win for any of the quintet would clearly be no surprise, especially when the Sportsbook wanted nothing to do with the early generosity about Matata, as they opened up at just 11/43.75, and that is now the general price and the best on offer.
Frero Banbou bids to follow up his win in this race in 2022 in the 2m handicap chase at 13:50 and, for all he hasn't won in his 12 starts since, I think he is pretty attractively priced.
He was 4lb out of the handicap when a good second at Cheltenham last time, and maybe the return to 2m on what will be very tiring ground once the frost overs come up could be the ticket to another belated success.
Two or three of his rivals could press on, which will suit him back in distance, and this test could suit him once again, for all plenty will label him under the non-winner banner and give him a swerve.
And the form of the Venetia Williams stable has certainly cooled significantly in the past three weeks or so. They are just 1 from 23 in January. That has to be a worry of sorts.
All things considered though, I think he is worth a small bet at 6.05/1 or bigger. The Sportsbook are just 4s, but he is a general 5s and as big as 11/26.50 elsewhere, so hopefully that exchange guide price will be easily attainable.
I would never tip at Betfair SP but I am more than happy to settle at it.
I initially didn't have a strong opinion in the 2m7f handicap hurdle at 14:25 but I liked Moka De Vassy when he won at Taunton last time and he could certainly have been dealt with more harshly than a 2lb rise.
His jumping still leaves a lot to be desired, and he isn't the most consistent, but if he ever puts it all together then he is certainly still well handicapped off 125.
The Sportsbook offer him at 8/19.00 and go four places too - the best combination out there, which is vital to me as you are mugging people off if not mentioning when it isn't - and that is enough to get me involved.
Back him at 8s each way. Jane Williams (unlike Venetia) has her small team in good form, with three winners in the last fortnight.
We have a big set-to with L'Homme Presse and Protektorat in the 15:00, with the Sportsbook favouring the former at 8/111.73 over the latter at 7/42.75.
It is just a matter of whether proven race-fitness will allow Protektorat to give the 5lb-higher rated L'Homme Presse (off since unseating at the last in the 2022 King George) 4lb, but the prices factor that all in.
I'd probably go with the Dan Skelton horse if pushed, but I take far more pushing than would be required here. That Sportsbook 8/111.73 is the best price around, by the way.
The Surrey National over 3m4f178yd at 15:35 provides plenty of numbers and Laskalin was the interesting one for me here.
He probably ran a bit better than the bare form suggests when a 15-length fifth in this race on heavy ground last year and he went up to 135 in the weights after a good second over 3m at Sandown last February.
He hasn't been doing anything flash since then, and in fact he ran dismally on his first two starts this season, but he showed a little bit more (admittedly not a lot, as Paul Daniels may have said if he was still with us) at Newbury last time and finds himself off just 125 here.
Again, the form of the Williams yard is a slight concern - some have been running very badly, but a couple have been beaten under a length and you have to think she would have targeted this valuable meeting with her runners - but the price is in this instance is adequate compensation.
In fact, the Sportsbook's 16/117.00 is the best around. Back him there win-only or at 17.016/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is not an each-way consideration given his profile, for all the Sportsbook are paying four places.
Fakenham look up against it in trying to get their meeting on - perhaps more so than Lingfield, and they may fail their 3pm inspection - and I don't have a strong opinion at the current odds in their two ITV races.
Don't get me wrong, I think Bonntay will take the world of beating in the 2m4f mares' handicap hurdle at 14:40.
I had a good go on her at Cheltenham last time and I thought she was absolutely hacking up when falling 2 out there.
I know it was a long way out but I am convinced she would have won easily given the way the race panned out, and she can race off the same mark here.
But the market has pegged her in at around 2s, so I can leave her alone. She is not one to oppose lightly, though.
The Grade 2 Horse And Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles at 13:35 is a serious 2m4f race - I suppose I better call it a Ryanair trial but I really am no fan of this six-month Cheltenham ante-post circus - but I wouldn't be going anywhere near Allaho at odds-on, or indeed evens.
Harsh maybe, but I was slightly underwhelmed by his close third in the King George and I'd much rather be with Envoi Allen and Appreciate It.
Well, that said, the Sportsbook have actually the same idea as me.
They go top price at evens about Allaho, and bottom dollar about Envoi Allen and Appreciate It at 11/43.75 and 4/15.00 respectively, so I can't tip either even if I wanted to!
Good luck this weekend. If Lingfield is off tomorrow, then it is not the end of the world; a day off from betting is never a bad idea.
Now read Rachael Blackmore on her Sunday rides here.