Tony Calvin takes a fresh look at Sunday's ITV Racing at Cheltenham and is very happy with his two ante-post tips, though our man does have a fresh bet in an earlier race...
- Very happy with ante-post Greatwood bets
- Severance looks best of the rest
- Back On The Lash a fresh 11/1 tip
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Hopeful of big runs from well-handicapped ante-post tips
We lost three at the overnight stage in the Greatwood Hurdle at 14:55 - last year's winner West Cork, live outsider Teddy Blue and Lebowski - so punters have a cracking 16-runner handicap to go at on Sunday afternoon.
It was a relief to see my ante-post each-way selections confirmed for the race, and I am very happy with my positions on Current Mood and First Impression at 20/1 and 25/1 respectively.
I am not going to re-state the case for them here as I am not advising a fresh bet on the pair - you can read Tuesday's article here though - but I genuinely still think they are decent value at their current win-only exchange odds.
So if you are fresh to the party, then I would not put you off them in the slightest.
Crucially, both like decent ground and the watering that Cheltenham started on Friday evening shouldn't be a hindrance, as just on the easy side of good would probably be perfect for both of them.
They are a well handicapped duo with more to come off their current marks, and I'd be very hopeful both can hit the first four at the very least.
Anyway, you can read the case for them in that link above, and now it is just a matter of whether I want to add to the betting portfolio. Horrible phrase, I know.
Irish raiders feared but I like Severance best of the rest
You have to be worried about the market leaders Dads Lads and Thousand Tears, for all the UK handicapper has added 11lb to their Irish marks and the latter is priced up on his connections alone - and Gin Coco could be the big improver - but I thought Severance scored very highly if you are looking for an each-way bet.
However, the Sportsbook odds compilers unfortunately agreed, and cut him into just 8s on Friday afternoon, so I simply can't tip him at that price. They are looking to duck him, and rightly so.
That may actually be a blessing in disguise as Severance does not have that killer instinct close to the line that you would want in a horse in these big-field handicaps - he is on a losing run of nine - but you would be a tad harsh if questioning his attitude. And, in any case, that is why you want the places on your side here, too.
However, that price cut from 12s to 8s on Friday is undeniably disappointing, as he has a lot to recommend him.

He is a strong traveller who excels in these types of handicaps, he has good course form, and he appears to have run as well as ever on his return at Ffos Las, a race in which he finished a close third to Effernock Fizz (a narrow second over fences here next time) and Milkwood (not so good on his following outing).
In fact, you could argue that it was a career-best and he is effectively 6lb lower here.
He is 6lb lower because he was 4lb out of the handicap and his jockey weighed in 2lb heavy for some reason, and he will love the ground, as long as they haven't got too jiggy with the watering can. He acts on any going but two of his best efforts came on good to firm on the Flat and the way he flows through his races indicates the likely conditions are what he will excel on.
If he can show more dog in the fight up the hill, then he is a big runner, win and place. But I would want at least 10/1 each-way, so no bet at the moment.
Staying chaser primed to go very well
The only other race that interests me from a betting perspective at either Cheltenham or Fontwell is, unsurprisingly, the 3m3f handicap chase at 14:20 at the National Hunt HQ.
Dominateur has joined Ben Pauling from Oliver Sherwood on a very attractive mark of 127 - the handicapper has dropped him 10lb for his absence - and I toyed with him at 20/1, but I finally landed on Back On The Lash at 11/1 each-way, four places, with the Sportsbook.
Of course, he is a better known as a Cross Country exponent (that race was abandoned this year because the ground was too firm in the unwatered centre of the course) but he has won over hurdles on the conventional track here and he comes here fit and well after a good second over hurdles over an inadequate 2m4f in a five-runner affair at Worcester last month.
That race has seen the first, third and fourth all win on their next starts, while the fifth finished second.
Up in trip - he won the 3m6f Cross Country at this meeting last year - on ground he will enjoy, then I think Back On The Lash is primed to go very well.