Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Big Race Verdict: Henry to be our friend for Ascot Saturday prize

• Market moves on Sportsbook and pace tactics for Ascot

• Newbury form could stand up well for 11/26.50 chance

• Alan Dudman provides the Big Race Verdict on ITV 

Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to Saturday's preview episode now.

A field of thirteen for the Ascot feature

One of my ante-post fancies, The Doyen Chief, has decided not to take up his Ascot engagement so in terms of my betting thinking, I start with a blank sheet again with 13 runners for the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup at 15:45 - one of the first big handicap chases of the season at Ascot.

I am slightly disappointed with the 13, and one of those is Two For Gold, who is now old enough to give Methuselah a run for his money. The stark truths of the handicapping system is laid bare here, with Two For Gold, who is hardly going to improve at his age (12), has a mark of 147 and a top weight of 12 stone.

Chasers like this fellow should be given some clemency. The assessor can put him on 140 and say "here you go, you deserve it at your age".

Two For Gold finished fourth in last year's version, behind his stabelmate Chianti Classico. Neon Moon was third in that renewal too from 136 and is down to 130, so that's a bit of a help. But my golden rule these days is not to back any David Pipe horse. Sorry David.

Sportsbook market moves

The ground is playing a part with the betting, and while good at the time of writing, rain is anticipated and those taking a view on Blow Your Wad are banking on some of the forecast rain being substantial.

Blow Your Wad has been cut from 10/111.00 into 6/17.00 and is the standout betting mover. As a Grade 2 winner of the Pendil as a novice in soft conditions, it's easy to see why he has been latched on to and he's clearly off a good mark from 142.

However, his form went into the negative after that Kempton win in February last year and he's had wind surgery too.

Neon Moon was cut on Friday morning on the Sportsbook from 15/28.50 into 11/26.50 and the drifters were Henry's Friend from 9/25.50 to 11/26.50, Bhaloo 7s to 9s, and Beachcomber out to 14/115.00.

Pauling could have a big chance with Mandarin winner

As favourite, The Changing Man claims are hard to argue with as a quality novice from last term although somewhat flattered by his 24 length victory in the Reynoldstown at Ascot.

He finished second at Ascot in the Howden Gold Cup last December and he has a lot of seconds next to his name (six from 12 runs over fences). That's not the critical part for me, it could be the rain as I think he's better on good ground. It's enough to leave him out of the winning equation.

Henry's Friend landed the Mandarin last winter at Newbury but was subsequently thrashed in the Ultima and then the Scottish Grand National.

His trainer Ben Pauling thought he had a great chance in the Coral Gold Cup from 139 at the same track on the start before the Mandarin, and might have won had he not clouted the 14th fence, and since two disappointed runs his mark is back down from 145 to 143. Which I think is a winnable one.

On the Newbury efforts, he could be the bet with the price drifting. He stays well but isn't short of tactical speed, and is it home in these big Saturday chase handicaps. Pauling thought he was well handicapped from 138 last term when thrashing Hymac, and this doesn't look as deep as it should, and from 143, there's more progress to come.

Good to soft conditions could turn out to be ideal.

Pace map and tactics

Front runners: Henry's Friend, The Changing Man, Bhaloo? Beachcomber.

Prominent: Two For Gold? Henry's Friend, The Changing Man, Blow Your Wad, Le Coq Hardi, Bhaloo, Courtland, Neon Moon.

Mid-division: Marble Sands, Le Coq Hardi.

Hold-up: Two For Gold? Marble Sands, Olivers Travels, Coastguard Station, Snipe?

Is there an outsider to back?

Snipe is a 16/117.00 rag but has been in some good races and was third to The Doyen Chief at Warwick last season, and was a 3/14.00 shot against him that day.

He was a faller in the Scottish Grand National early and since then has been on a recovery mission. Bhaloo wants to go right-handed but isn't a certain stayer as most of his form is over shorter. Beachcomber has the makings of a good chaser and scored at the King George meeting at Kempton last winter to land a 0-135 by 10 lengths.

As a seven year-old there is still potential, but it's his first run of the season and working out Jonjo O'Neill is a task that baffles me.

Verdict for Ascot Sodexo Gold Cup Chase

Henry's Friend at 11/26.50 might be a little weak in the market at the time of writing, but he's the solid handicapper who stays well and his form at Newbury in two runs last term gives him an excellent chance.

Off 143 he is near to handicapped out of it, but his win by 6L in beating Hymac on good to soft came from 138 and off a 5lb higher mark in a race where rivals are not so hot, he looks the bet.

Now read Mark Milligan's preview with tips for the Breeders' Cup