Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's using intelligence and positivity for Sandown bets

• Three bets for Tony Calvin on Saturday

• 12/113.00 shots Intellogent and Positive fancied at Sandown

• Lordship looks a solid selection at Haydock

---

Sandown basically went good to soft, with a bit of good thrown in, after 15mm of rain on Tuesday evening but it sounds like clerk of the course Andrew Cooper hasn't ruled out the possibility of watering on Friday night.

That was probably as much of a knowing nod to trainers declaring for Saturday than the reality of the situation - it has been warm and sunny since, but there is now rain (10mm, maybe less) and a thunderstorm risk for the weekend - but it makes sense to proceed on the basis on the fast side of good ground for the Coral-Eclipse meeting, whatever happens irrigation-wise (presumably nothing now with that forecast).

We have a scorcher set for Friday, with unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the high 20s.

Sandown - 15:40: No Bet

We may as well deal with the big one first then, and I have slowly to come to the conclusion that Paddington will probably start a shade of odds-on and win the Group 1 at 15:40.

Clearly, that is no good for my betting and tipping MO, as last weekend proved once again. I stuck up His Majesty at 3/14.00 and he ran a pretty lifeless race in third, and I just have to accept that I am a terrible judge of the front of the market.

This was re-inforced when I thought Sprewell was a superb bet at 11/102.11 without Auguste Rodin and White Birch, only to see him turn in a shocker.

No, going forward, there is going to have to be a compelling reason for me to be playing sub 4/15.00. If the financial evidence is staring you in the face, then do not ignore it.

Back to Paddington, then, and what I said about him here on Monday pretty much stands, verbatim.

Quite simply, the improvement this colt has made since winning a handicap off 97 at Naas in March has been something else and he made another big leap forward from his Irish 2,000 Guineas win when laughing at Chaldean at Royal Ascot.

The issue is whether he can raise his game again, against the older horses, as he steps up to the 1m2f for the first time and his run-style and pedigree gives you every hope he can.

He is by Siyouni, whose gets plenty of 1m2f+ winners (including St Mark's Basilica, who won this very race for the stable in 2021) out of a mare who won at up to 1m5f in France. And a feature of Paddington's victories has been just how strong he has been through the line over 1m. And the age allowance has to be considered another plus for this ground-versatile colt.

Maybe, Dubai Honour could follow him home - by the way, it strikes me as a touch odd that John Gosden has taken the hood off Emily Upjohn and Mimikyu at Haydock - but there are better betting races on ITV on Saturday, not that I would include the Charge at 13:50 among them.

Sandown - 13:50: No Bet

The aspect that stood out for me here was there is an absence of guaranteed pace, though I imagine Diligent Harry is a short price to be leading after a furlong from stall six.

Just a simple look at the closely-knit official ratings for the Group 3, and the knowledge that we will be hearing at least two hard luck stories afterwards, led me quick to a no bet.

However, if you back Diligent Harry then you are at least highly likely to get a clean run from the front and the fact that he is dropping to 5f for only the third time in his career must be a positive, considering the pace he shows over 6f. He wouldn't want any rain, but I did think a price of around 12/113.00 on the exchange was fair.

Sandown - 15:00: No Bet

I may as well get the Sandown no bet races out of the way as I will not be getting involved in the 1m Distaff at 15:00 either, for all Breege looks to hold very strong claims and I wouldn't be in a rush to lay her at the current 3.55/2 on the exchange.

We lost the ante-post market leaders Coppice and Silver Lady at the overnight stage and her claims are obvious.

She is ground-versatile, she comes here after an excellent second in the Sandringham and she is officially the class angle of the contest. And, in the absence of my tipping and betting in the race, I hope she wins for Andrew Black's Chasemore Farm, who are sponsors at the track.

However, the form of the John Quinn stable should maybe concern Black, as should the fact that his filly is drawn 12 of 12, which could cause Jason Hart a headache.

He won't have one now, as Breege was declared a non-runner on Friday morning with a temperature.

Bridestones is clearly a lot better than she was able to show at Royal Ascot and Crystallium is interesting, back to a more suitable 1m after a non-staying run over 1m2f last time and with first-time cheekpieces applied. The trainer is one from 11 with this headgear switch and he has also had two seconds and two thirds, too, with the third-placings at 28/129.00 and 20/121.00.

If I was going to have a bet in the race, she'd me top of my list at 20/121.00 and bigger (some 22/123.00 in the marketplace).

Sandown - 14:25: Back Intellogent and Positive

I have to give Intellogent another chance at 13.012/1 or bigger in the 1m handicap at 14:25 after his Royal Hunt Cup flop.

I actually thought he may even go off favourite at Ascot but someone had a good idea he was going to run a stinker and he went off at a Betfair SP of 18.3, having drifted into the 20s at one point. Weak doesn't begin to describe it.

If you are willing to ignore that run, you are getting well rewarded at 13.012/1 or bigger, as the handicapper dropped him 4lb in one hit - no doubt because he is an 8yo now - and he is a dangerously well handicapped horse off 100.

Prior to Ascot, he ran well when fourth in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton and then went on to record a ridiculously eye-catching sixth under the tenderest of rides at Newbury.

He is now 5lb lower than when ½-length second to Dark Shift in the 2022 Hunt Cup and I am happy to keep the faith at the price.

You can make a similar case for Perotto (though the first-time hood is maybe a worry, especially at his price of 6/17.00) but my second bet in the race is Positive, though I'd be worried if they do get any appreciable ran through Saturday morning. They may even him pull him out of they do.

However, on decent ground, the horse has plenty going for him and is worth a nibble at 13.012/1 or bigger.

In winning form on the all-weather either side of the New Year, he ran well when eighth in the Hunt Cup considering he was probably disadvantaged by racing down the middle of the track late on.

Dropped 1lb to a mark of 105, he is also one from one around here - having beat Kameko in the 2019 Solario, no less, which is probably not really relevant, to be honest - and Rossa Ryan will hopefully get a prominent pitch from stall two. I hate to see horses trying to play catch up on the inside here.

Both of the above tips are available at 14/115.00 in the wider marketplace.

Spirit Catcher could get an uncontested lead if getting across from stall 12 - he could be a good back-to-lay trading angle - but I wouldn't surprised if Revich is ridden more forward from trap three given the lack of pace in the race.

Haydock - 14:40: No Bet

We also have three ITV races from Haydock and we could get thunderstorms here too, so keep an eye out.

In fact, I have just checked the main site I use and, as at 9am on Friday morning, there is 15mm due. But who knows?

It is currently good.

I'd be against Mimikyu at 6/42.50 or less in the Lancashire Oaks at 14:40, because she looked a hard ride last time (beaten at 1.011/100) and they have taken the hood off here, as with Emily Upjohn.

Furthermore, there are a fair few you can put up against her - she isn't even the highest-rated horse in here on official ratings, that honour going to the unpenalized Group 1 winner Aristia (not sure about here over 1m4f, though) - and, to be honest, I would be in a mad rush to back her at 2/13.00, though she does handle soft if required.

Aunties and uncles and all that, but if I am tempted to have a bet in the race on Saturday then it will probably be the outsider Wickywickywheels, currently 33/134.00 but likely to be a lot bigger on the exchange. I think the race could be ripe for a shock and she could provide it.

Haydock - 14:05: Back Lordship

In the 14:05, Lordship stood out a mile as a rare William Haggas improver in a handicap that was overpriced at 8/19.00 in six places on Thursday afternoon.

It is one of those fiercely competitive 3yo handicaps, but I thought Lordship should be favourite given a very likeable profile, and I said as much on the Racing Only Bettor podcast.

Unfortunately, the 8/19.00 has become 5/16.00 - the 11/26.50 went at 8.45am, annoyingly - so we will come to that in a moment. My (overly) price-conscious nature has well and truly kicked in here, but the case for him first.

The horse that beat him here in May is now rated 19lb higher after winning his next two by a combined distance of nearly 13 lengths and Lordship comes here on a hat-trick after winning a novice at Chepstow and a Yarmouth 0-75 in ridiculously easy fashion (and in a fair time) on fast ground last time.

He has been raised 8lb for that but such was the ease of the success that doesn't bother me and apparently connections won't mind some dig if it is does lash down. He has a good old German pedigree, after all.

There is plenty of pace in here, so a stalking ride from trap 13 could be just what the doctor ordered. I showed my hand too early on the podcast, but I still rate him a reduced-stakes bet at 6.05/1 or bigger on the exchange.

He may well drift out again but the 5/16.00 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook is the way I am playing this. Go no lower than 9/25.50; there has to be a price cut-off point somewhere when betting.

Haydock - 15:15: No Bet

I can see the case for loads in the 1m4f handicap at 15:15.

La Yakel is clearly thought a lot better than his mark, Maksud is now very well weighted and he didn't run that badly at Ascot, my 2023 cliff horse Toshizou is tried at 1m4f now after being given one of the worst rides of the season at Epsom last time (I have let him go, so you know what happens now), and everyone saw how well Onesmoothoperator shaped behind Cumolunimbis at Haydock last time.

Throw in Sir Rumi, also given a poor ride last time and now back to his optimum trip, and little wonder why the Sportsbook after offering punters five places. It's a very tough handicap to crack.

I like Ripon winner Knightswood best but the problem is he is the first reserve.

The good news is Certain Lad will probably be a non-runner, as he is currently set to race at Sandown on Friday, but he needs to be taken out by 1pm today for Knightswood to run and he was still in the Haydock race as this column went live. And he apparently wouldn't want rain, anyway.

So no bet for now.

Good luck.

---

Read Ryan Moore on his five Saturday Sandown rides.

---

Racing... Only Bettor. Watch now.