Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three includes 100/1 Ganapathi

• Ganapathi cannot be ignored at 100/1101.00

• Price is right to take chance on Commodore

• We're NRMB on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

• Free horse racing multiples bet every weekend before Cheltenham Festival

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Paul Nicholls Superboost

If, like Paul, you're confident that Kandoo Kid can run a big race in the 13:55 at Newbury this afternoon then you can back the horse to finish in the top three at the super-boosted price of 7/42.75 from 5/42.25.

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Luckily, you didn't have to listen to me droning on about the weather at the start of the week, so here is the current state of affairs at ITV's three tracks on Saturday.

Newbury's two-day fixture starting on Friday sees soft ground on the chase course, and soft, heavy in places over hurdles. They are due around 10mm or so in the next 48 hours.

Kelso is good to soft, but they are set to get around 8mm through Friday and Saturday. The BBC weather forecast suggests it could be a lot wetter, with the rain arriving at around 1pm on Friday, but the site I use has just updated with an improved outlook. It is unsettled there though, and the amounts keep changing.

Doncaster is a mixture of good to soft and soft, and they may get around 12mm from now up until race-time on Saturday.

I only started looking at the nine ITV races around 7am on Thursday morning (it was refreshing not to be fretting about ante-post selections being confirmed when tracking the decs up until 10am) so I am certainly coming in "mad fresh" this week, to use that oft-used phrase of Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls.

Kelso 13:42 - No bet

Let's crack on with Kelso, the main meeting of the day, and the action begins with a nine-runner 2m5f handicap hurdle at 13:42.

I was keen to side with course winner Serious Operator at the Sportsbook's 5/16.00 here, as his fifth in the Lanzarote (when ridden by a claimer who is one from 46 this season) is strong form in the context of this handicap, but there were just too many horses I could put up against him.

And he wouldn't want too much of that rain, either.

Russian Ruler may be an out-of-form monkey but he is back over hurdles off a mark of just 122 and 12s about him looks fair; stablemate Pentland Hills ran well when second to Serious Operator on his return and he has claims off 142; and The Kalooki Kid, stepping back up in trip, could be very well handicapped off 124 on his Doncaster fourth to Jeriko Du Reponet last time, when the subsequent Dovecote 1-2 filled the placings.

I wasn't in the least bit surprised to see the latter's opening quote of 12s not getting past midday on Thursday - I was shocked to see it lasted 20 minutes, in fact - and he is now into a more realistic 11/26.50.

However, there are too many potential winners for me in this nine-runner race, and I haven't even mentioned Rafferty's Return, who could get a solo up front in his first-time visor.

Kelso 14:17 - No bet

There were an amazing 23 entries at the five-day stage for the 2m2f Grade 2 novices' hurdle at 14:17, and the numbers have held up pretty well, with 12 confirmed.

I thought this was hugely competitive too, even if Grade 1 Aintree Tolworth winner Jango Baie could have a significant class edge over the field. His Sidney Banks second last time, when trying to give an unbeaten winner 5lb and failing by just 1 ½ lengths, was probably a better performance. He is the Sportsbook's 6/42.50 favourite.

However, at the weights the mare Brucio actually comes out best on official figures and a further four of these, maybe chief among them Personal Ambition, easily excused a poor Sandown run on heavy, and a good winner at Warwick and Doncaster either side of that outing. But he is just 9/25.50 with the Sportsbook, and 13/27.50 and 6/17.00 elsewhere, so no bet in this instance.

Kelso 14:50 - Back Ganapathi

The 120k Morebattle Hurdle at 14:50 was oversubscribed, with 22 of the 26 being confirmed for a maximum field of 18, so Park Annociade, Collingham, Jipcot (who I had my eye on) and Lively Citizen were balloted out.

If you backed any of those ante-post make sure you get your money returned, and do not take no for an answer.

Under Control is the obvious starting point here given her Sandown defeat of Iberico Lord last season and the way she shaped in splitting two Grade 1 winners in a mares' Grade 2 at Doncaster last time, and not being overly-punished in the process to do so.

The handicapper could have been harsher than raising her 1lb for that, and she has a glaringly obvious chance. You suspect that she has a fair bit in hand off her mark of 138 if and when she meets her optimum conditions. The question is will she get those here?

The main problem is odds-compilers tend to have a pair of eyes too. Her current price of 11/43.75 with the Sportsbook is no bargain given the possible rain (the Sandown win came on spring soft ground and she is thought better on a decent surface) and the worryingly poor stable form, something which the yard are aware of.

I couldn't be with her at the current price, which is the shortest out there. Given the stable form, I'd want more bang for my buck in terms of compensation in her odds. At 5s, I'd be interested.

The Sportsbook are paying five places on the race and I refuse to let rank outsider Ganapathi go untipped at 100/1101.00 each-way with the Sportsbook.

Sure, he could easily be tailed off, as his odds suggest, but he ran his best race for some time over fences when a close third at Musselburgh last time, showing a lot more fight and zip than previously this season. He could run a lot, lot better than his odds suggest back over hurdles.

This horse went off 6s for the County Hurdle in 2021 and ran off 145 in the Coral Cup in 2022 (fell at the last prior to that Cheltenham run, when definitely not out of it in a Grade 1 at Punchestown), but he is down to 122 now, having been eased 12lb for five chase starts this season.

I saw enough last time to think the place part of the 100s each-way bet is huge here, and it was good to see the stable have their first winner for a while with a 14s poke obliging for them at Ayr on Monday.

He is 100s in three places, and the 80s and the general 66s out there is acceptable too, with the each-way terms.

I was also going to say I couldn't put you off Black Hawk Eagle and last year's winner Benson each-way as well - the former is on a roll for a stable having a brilliant season, and he won easily at Hereford last time, having previously beaten a dual subsequent winner at Wincanton - but I'll stick with just the huge odds play.

I was going to stick up Black Hawk Eagle but he was trimmed from 11/26.50 to 9/25.50 early on Thursday afternoon, and then again into 4s. As it stands, Benson at 11s is the better each-way play of that pair, even if Kerry Lee has now won with four of her last five runners after Eaton Collina went in at Wetherby on Thursday.

Kelso 15:25 - No bet

Just the seven runners in the 2m7f96yd Listed chase at 15:25, so at least each-way punters know the score in advance.

I'd marginally favour Aye Right at 3s over the 13/82.63 favourite Monbeg Genius, as he has a good body of work at the course and didn't run far off his best last time, but I can easily leave the race alone.

Newbury 13:20 - Back Commodore

It is vital you relay to readers when a stable is in bad form, especially when you are tipping one of their horses, and that is what I am doing now ahead of siding with Commodore, win only, at the Sportsbook's 8/19.00 in the veterans' chase at Newbury at 13:20.

Someone sent me some stats to show Venetia Williams was in her worst form for yonks ahead of L'Homme Presse and Victorrino running at Ascot a fortnight ago.

She had an average over expected of less than 0.40 in 2024 from over 75 runners and the lowest percentage of rivals beaten in February for nearly four years. Things haven't improved much since, though she had a winner at Bangor on Wednesday (and she has just had another one on Thursday just before this column went live and a neck second at Wetherby soon after).

However, I don't mind taking a chance if the price is right and Commodore is a horse who goes best when fresh and is down to a mark of just 128, with potentially a very nice pace set-up in this race.

If the yard was in better nick, he'd surely be nearer 4s. So I am getting compensation for the doubt.

He was rated 142 after making all in spectacular fashion at Cheltenham in December 2021, and I reckon they must be looking to blast from the front here, with maybe just Highland Hunter to see off for the early lead.

Newbury 13:55 - No bet

I don't have a strong betting opinion in the Greatwood Gold Cup at 13:55 - Heltenham, a good second at Kempton last Saturday, is probably best at 9s (he is surely well in here once his revised mark comes into play), but you can make a fair case for all the runners - so I will move on to Doncaster.

Doncaster 14:35 - No bet

The weights went up 7lb at the overnight stage for the 14:35, which brought The Big Bite, Numitor and Riders Onthe Storm into the handicap.

There is no guaranteed front-runner in the field, but surely Numitor, ridden more patiently in his two most recent starts, will re-adopt his traditional forcing tactics and that could see him go well at the Sportsbook's 12/113.00.

He is a course winner off a very attractive mark now, though the form of the Heather Main yard is a concern of sorts - they haven't had a jumps winner since this horse won here in March 2022, although they had two successes on the Flat in January - and he is hardly a solid proposition on his first start since last April (though he did win first time out in 2021).

Doncaster 15:10 - Back For Gina

I nearly fell off my chair when seeing 11 runners for the Listed 3m mares' novices' hurdle at 15:10. But unfortunately I pretty much agree with the market in that Lunar Discovery and Ottizzini, 15/82.88 and 7/24.50 respectively, are very much the pair to beat. It's not a great race at all.

Lunar Discovery does have her stamina to prove though, so for that reason I would side with Ottizzini of the pair, even if she does have a 3lb penalty and a bit of a hit-and-miss profile.

If you want an outsider then surely For Gina is the one. The 40s and 33s in the wider marketplace is a bit mad, as I thought the Sportsbook's 25s was fair enough after her wide-margin Fakenham win last time. And her trainer Lucy Wadham is in very good nick indeed.

I know For Gina is rated a mere 102, some 23b shy of Lunar Discovery on official figures, but this race does look ripe for a shock the more you go through it.

However, my initial take was I could hardly tip her at 25s when she is 40s and 33s elsewhere. If you can access the bigger prices, then by all means do so.

However, I suggest you back her at 26.025/1 or bigger on the Exchange, and I'll settle at Betfair SP. And, to be honest, I wouldn't lay you the 25s on the Sportsbook myself if you wanted to accept that.

She is three from five since the cheekpieces went on - she nearly threw it away with a shocking mistake at the last when scoring in a decent time at Fakenham on her most recent start - and her pedigree gives you hope she can rate a lot higher than 102.

She is by Kayf Tara out of United, a mare rated 150 at her peak, having won a Grade 1 for the yard.

The old Teddy Grimthorpe rounds off proceedings at Donny and the 70k 3m2f handicap chase at 15:40 does look a very winnable prize for the cash. Just the 13 runners for a race that could have accommodated 20.

However, I'd be lying if I said I had any flash of inspiration at the current odds here - Kinondu Kwetu looks overpriced at the Sportsbook's 25s but this could be a tee-up job for the Midlands National at Uttoxeter, a course at which he goes well, in a fortnight's time - so I will leave it there.

Good luck.

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