Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's super six to back on Champions Day

• Tony Calvin's tips for Champions Day at Ascot
• Trueshan will take some stopping
• Wordsworth a worthy saver
• Horse from Down Under is overpriced
• Each-way bets...

Before we dive into this week's column, it's best to inform you we have a fantastic promotion on tomorrow's opener - the Long Distance Cup. We have a Money Back on all losers promo on the Exchange - read more here.

Just over 4mm of rain overnight into Thursday turned the ground good to soft (soft in places) at Ascot. With little more currently forecast but hardly drying conditions, I imagine that is what we will be looking at come race-time on Saturday afternoon.

That should be plenty deep enough for Trueshan in the opener, but the obvious concern for him as he goes for a hat-trick in this race is his refusal to settle (and possibly a souring attitude?) for Hollie Doyle.

Some have suggested the diminutive Doyle simply isn't strong enough to restrain the brute in his current errant mindset - and she probably wouldn't put the Goodwood Cup ride on her showreel, either - but that seems a touch harsh to me.

Trueshan will take some stopping

Undoubtedly, the way he pulled and travelled pretty from the outset in an admittedly slowly-run race at Doncaster last time - where he actually did very well to be beaten a neck by Coltrane in the circumstances - is an obvious worry.

However, the fact of the matter is that something will need to improve at least 7lb to beat him if he is on A-game once again. Even that Goodwood Cup third to Kyprios and Stradivarius (with Coltrane 3 ¼ lengths away in fourth) under a less than optimal ride back in July would probably be more than sufficient to take this.

He has drifted to a backable price now, as I can't have the St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and Waterville at their current odds, and I am getting him onside at 3.185/40 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. I think he wins this more than once in three, and closer to twice.

This is the only race on the card that has cut up to any significant degree, with the 14 five-day entries becoming just eight - the two that I liked most against the favourite, Search For a Song and Beamish, do not run - and if the real Trueshan turns up then he will take some stopping.

His Northumberland Plate win off 120 (in contrast, Waterville's Irish Cesarewitch win came off just 99) and the official ratings tell you that, as does his performances in winning this race for the last two years.

It is not the price I like playing at, but if he came here straight from Goodwood, he'd be a 4/6 poke, tops, for my money. Hopefully, with Quickthorn (fair chance if you ignore that appalling run last time), and Trawlerman, we get enough pace for him to settle into an even racing rhythm again off a solid pace.

I will have a saver on Wordsworth at 50.049/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange, and I will also look to back him without the favourite when those markets appear at 20/1 or so. I just hope he isn't in here to help set the pace too, but I will take my chances.

You get the strong impression they expected far better of him than he has shown this season. But last year's Group 1 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris runner-up (in deep ground) and Irish Derby third shaped well enough behind stablemate Waterville in the Irish Cesarewitch last time, his first run for three months.

He raced off an 8lb higher mark than this stablemate there and was beaten less than eight lengths after that absence, and it could be that he is the sneaky one in here.

He looked to get tired in the final stages after making his move on the outside at the Curragh, and he will surely be much sharper here. His course form is decent enough, too.

Hang on, the betting without Trueshan is just up on the Betfair Sportsbook and Wordsworth is 25/1. That is big enough for me to have a tickle win-only.

The rain on Wednesday night has cemented the participation of Kinross and he could well be the one to beat in the Champions Sprint at 14:00 after his first Group 1 win the Foret over 7f a fortnight ago.

With such a big field - only Mitbaahy came out of the race on Thursday morning - they are likely to go lickety split here and that will obviously bring his stamina into play, but 7f is his optimum distance, and he only finished ninth in this race last year when a 13/2 poke (albeit he comes in here as an improved horse).

I said on a Weighed In a couple of weeks ago that Rohaan, in-form and four from five at this track, was a fair price for this at 5/1. But I certainly wasn't expecting 17 rivals to rock up against him and he is a similar price now - in fact, just 10/3 with the Sportsbook, who are paying five places - so I can let him slide. And if you are looking for negatives he did blow out in this race last season, and maybe his draw in six isn't great.

I was toying with Castle Star ante-post as he got no run in the Flying Five last time and he has a fair shot on his juvenile form, which included a half-a-length second to Perfect Power in the Middle Park and good 6f form on testing ground.

He could be well berthed in 14 too (as could Kinross), with Naval Crown set to make the running from 16, and he is a contender at 16/1+

But the more I looked the more impossible this race became. No bet.

Horse from Down Under is overpriced

I would have tipped Verry Elleegant ante-post for the Fillies & Mares at 14:40, but the 33s about her shortened into 20s by the time I published, so I guess I really should be tipping her now.

So I am. There is no guaranteed pace in the race , so maybe they will go from the front on her again here.

It is amazing how quickly you can go off horses for no good reason in a short space of time and, after a quick re-assessment and a review of her recent videos, she was nearly a victim of my fickle betting nature.

Clearly, the 4-length Melbourne Cup winner has been a bit of disappointment since coming up from Australia, but she is simply overpriced on her talent Down Under - on which she is surely the best horse in here - and she shaped well enough off a poor passage at Longchamp last time, with Mickael Barzalona taking over another positive, I guess.

I'll back her at 21.020/1 and above. She was 28/1 in a place on Thursday morning, and 25s in a few, and I expect you'll get a fair bit bigger than 20s on the exchange, but that's my guide price.

If you fancy Emily Upjohn then you have to be delighted to see the first-time hood on her, as the Gosdens are simply mustard with this move.

Old Man Gozza was excellent in this regard on his lonesome and since he teamed up with The Real Slim Shady last year he is seven from 16. The likes of Trawlerman and Mimikyu (obviously runs here) won for them in the initial headgear this season and Audience obliged at 12/1 at Leicester earlier this week.

Twomey filly has live chance

I am a big fan of the hugely impressive Doncaster scorer Mimikyu (a sister to Journey, who won this race by four lengths in a hood in 2016) and I will ensure I won't lose on the race if she wins - I backed her at 7s on Thursday morning, a price still available on the Betfair Exchange - but my other tip in the race is Rosscarbery.

We all know how selective Paddy Twomey is when placing his horses (30 per cent strike rate in Ireland this season) and he sends over his filly with a live chance after her fourth in what I believe to be a very strong Irish St Leger last time.

She has form over 1m2f and 1m6f but it could be that this 1m4f trip (over which she beat the smart Yaxeni in the Munster Oaks in June) proves her optimum, and she is a bet at 17.016/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. Odds of 16s is available in the wider fixed-odds marketplace, too.

All the expected runners turn up for the QEII (Tenebrism was the only no-show from the five-day entries and she goes for the Champions Sprint) and, as ante-post readers will know, my betting entry into this race is a lay of Inspiral.

Even if you have to go up to 11/10 to lay her (which you will), you have the field running for you at 10/11, and they include a Classic scorer in Modern Games, a past winner in The Revenant, a big improver in the supplemented Jadoomi and a high-class 2yo who was something like his old self with a win last time in Bayside Boy. And Tempus is far from a no-hoper, too.

I know Inspiral has a big chance on her juvenile form and the Coronation Stakes romp, but she was chinned at 1/7 in the Falmouth and she didn't impress me that much when inching home in the Jacques Le Marois.

I probably wouldn't even entertain her at 6/4.

Revenant looks exceptionally solid

I won't put her up as an "official" tip here as the above is a personal choice and lay, and betting at odds-on, but I certainly wouldn't deter you from that approach, or an each-way bet on either The Revenant or Bayside Boy.

And I make no apologies for sticking up the former at 6/1 each way with the Sportsbook.

The ground may not be as testing as he would prefer it - though he wasn't beaten far on good to soft when fourth to Baaeed and Palace Pier in this race last season (and he had Group 1 winners either side in him in third and fifth there too) - but he comes here in great nick after a second to the close Jacques Le Marois third Erevann at Longchamp last time.

He may be seven, but he looks exceptionally solid.

Bay Bridge to take on Baaeed

High Definition's absence leaves nine in the Champion Stakes at 16:00, so each-way punters can have a swing against Baaeed if they so wish.

And I am going to with Bay Bridge at 11/1 with the Sportsbook.

I appreciate he is a touch bigger fixed-odds in one place elsewhere, and 16.015/1 win-only on the Betfair Exchange as you would expect, but 11s is good enough for me as an each-way play.

Of course, Baaeed wins if anywhere near the York form, and last year's Derby winner Adayar could well be booked for second, though I do think the jury is still out on him given we have only seen him once since his modest fifth in this race last season, and that in a three-runner race at Donny.

Clearly, Bay Bridge has questions to answer too, but he came back wrong after the Eclipse and he had previously given State Of Rest too much rope at Royal Ascot.

I just think he could still be as good as he looked when winning the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown in May and, if so, he surely won't be out of the first three. By all accounts, he will love this easier ground - Timeform called it good to soft at Sandown - and I feel he is best positioned to take advantage if Baaeed runs 7lb below form.

I put up Blue For You at 10/1 for the Balmoral Handicap at 16:40 on Tuesday, and I am going to stick with him as my sole bet in the race.

Only one (Raadobarg, who runs in the QEII earlier on the card) dropped out of the top 20 in the handicap on Thursday - allowing Orbaan to get a run - so the race has barely changed since the start of the week.

Blue For You is around 8s on the Betfair Exchange and that is fair if you haven't played, even if he arguably would like the ground a fair bit quicker.

I will re-state the case for him.

He simply has form in some of the best 1m handicaps this season, needing all of the mile to claim his stablemate Escobar at York close home (with the third, Tyrrhenian Sea, also one the favourites in here, 2 ¼ lengths away) in August, before coming here for a 7f handicap last time.

He travelled supremely well that day before the door shut on him 1f out and his seventh there does not do the promise of his run justice in the slightest. His in-running low of 2.08 showed you what could have been that day with a clear passage.

That run came on good to soft too, so perhaps the ground here won't be an issue at all for a horse that did win a maiden on soft in Ireland, for all his best form has come on a quick surface.

It may well be that his lack of instant pace stopped him taking the gap when it was there, as he is a strong stayer over a mile - in fact, I am sure it was, and it was a similar story when he was second to Orbaan at Goodwood - so up another furlong here again, on this stiff track, and I think his chance is clear, albeit in a very warm handicap.

Good luck, all.

**

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 225
Returns: 311.8pts
P/L: +86.8

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1