Tony Calvin Antepost: Comprehensive preview of Champions Day and a 10/1 tip

The mixed messages on the weather front for Ascot on Saturday rather abated on Tuesday morning,

The going is currently good to soft after 4mm overnight on Sunday, and it was originally "a difference of opinion, Geoffrey" as regards the two weather sites I use.

Yr.no had minimal rain through the week (around 4mm) but myweather2.com originally had all hell breaking loose on Thursday, predicting 17mm on that day, with 5mm on the following two days.

But the forecast has changed somewhat with yr.no now having just 1.3mm arriving, and myweather2.com 8mm.

So we could be looking at good to soft at the weekend. At the moment, anyway.

I like two outsiders against Trueshan but will hold fire for now

No prizes for guessing which of the forecasts connections of Trueshan want to see materialise, and last year's winner is the 9/4 favourite with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Long Distance Cup (13:25) that opens the meeting.

Two starts ago he would have been 4/6 tops to see off the likes of Waterville and Eldar Eldarov, coming here off the back of his Northumberland Plate win off 120, but he was a shade below par when third in the Goodwood Cup and downright disappointing when again far too keen and refusing to settle when beaten at 2/9 by Coltrane at Doncaster last time.

If he proves more tractable under Hollie Doyle on Saturday, then he ought to outclass these, but he has questions to answer after that run last time. The exchange layers are out to get him too, as he is trading at around 9/4 as this column goes live, as well as that industry-best Sportsbook price.

Waterville looks underpriced at 5/2 on what he has achieved to date - his Irish Cesarewitch win came off 99 - and I am not wild about St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov's price of 3/1 either (and apparently he is not a certain runner) though of course the 3yos have potential on their side.

Princess Zoe and Quickthorn have to bounce back from varyingly modest runs in France a fortnight ago behind the 20-length winner Kyprios, so I can see an upset in this race.

What springs it is the obvious problem, though.

Coltrane looks solid, and I like Beamish stepping up in trip, but I was hoping for bigger than the Sportsbook's 10s about him (though he is currently 17.016/1 on the Betfair exchange) - I may revisit the claims of the latter once we have the final decs on Thursday - but the two I homed in on were Search For A Song at 25s and Raise You at 33s.

Both have similar, interlocking form claims, Raise You beating Search For a Song by 2 lengths at the Curragh in August, and then finishing 1 ½ lengths behind the mare when they were third and fifth in the Irish St Leger last time.

I suspect both would prefer the ground to remain good to soft but Search For A Song finished second to Trueshan in this race on deep ground in 2020 and Raise You has winning form in soft, and both look overpriced at 25s and 33s respectively.

That Irish St Leger form behind Kyprios and Hamish obviously looks even better now given the subsequent victories of both, and the market seems to be underestimating those that followed them home there.

I'd be wary of Raise You's stamina if they do get a lot of rain, so I would hold fire with him at the moment, and the problem with backing Search For A Song ante-post is she missed Ascot last year to go to the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp the following weekend.

After much deliberating, I am going to hold fire on both.

Castle Star looks a fair price in the Sprint

We also have Creative Force looking to defend his crown in the Champions Sprint at 14:00, having beaten Glen Shiel by a length in this race last season.

However, he has a lot more on his plate than quotes of 5/2 suggest (every bookmaker makes him that price, which is curious) and Rohaan, in form and four from five at the track, presents him with a serious challenge, as do a few others, notably the Foret winner Kinross.

Castle Star also looks a fair price at around 20s on the Betfair exchange, but I would expect the field size to hold up at the overnight stage and we will probably get similar prices about most of the runners come Thursday, and enhanced place terms too for each-way punting.

Elleegant has a Verry good chance in Fillies and Mares but I've missed the price

The Fillies And Mares (14:40) looks wide open, but if I rate the Irish St Leger form, then I have to like the horse that split Search For A Song and Raise You there, namely the fourth home, Rosscarbery.

I have no idea about running plans for her though - and she is very weak on the Betfair exchange at 21.020/1 - while this race was earmarked for Verry Elleegant immediately after the Longchamp shenanigans and the trainer is set to bring her over along with his Prix Vermeille winner Sweet Lady, deliberately kept fresh for this.

I wouldn't profess to know the true merit of Verry Elleegant's Australian form - though a 4-length win in the Melbourne Cup last season reads impressively enough and put her in the low 120s - but, after failing to get into the Arc, her run over 1m6f in the Prix de Royallieu could have been overlooked by the layers.

I was also set to tip her at 33s win-only with the Sportsbook, with 25s as my minimum, so I was not a happy bunny when I woke up on Tuesday morning, doing a fresh sweep of all the prices and tailoring the copy accordingly before filing, and saw she was now 20s.

It was frustrating as basically her seventh to Sea La Rosa can be ignored as everything that could go wrong there did, and her Australian jockey could never get her into a challenging position at any stage, and the race was over before she had a chance to hit second gear.

I appreciate she is a 7yo taking on younger progressive sorts, and the 20s is now no more than fair, with bigger available elsewhere, so I cannot tip her.

Grrrrr. She would have been my premier ante-post play if 33/1, but such is life.

Laying Inspiral the way to play in QEII

I am very happy to take on Inspiral in the QEII at 15:20 as I think she is woefully underpriced at odds-on in the fixed-odds arena, and my betting route into this race will probably start and end by laying her on the Betfair exchange.

I'd happily lay her at up to 11/10 - she is odds-on across the board, fixed-odds - but that is probably best done after the final decs are done on Thursday and the liquidity arrives.

However, I have managed to lay her at 2.0811/10 to small stakes already, which I am very happy with. The ground may not be ideal for second favourite Modern Games, but I'd say Charlie Appleby will let him take his chance come what may.

So we hopefully have Modern Games in our camp, and The Revenant running for us too, but I like the claims of the supplemented Jadoomi and Bayside Boy just as much at their current exchange prices. In short, I think layers of the favourite have plenty running for them.

Classy Champion Stakes offers little betting interest

Baaeed versus Adayar may be the marketing draw in the Champion Stakes at 16:00 but I can't see any betting interest at all in the race, even if we forget that Bay Bridge was announced as the Second Coming in some quarters after his Sandown win in May.

Those pair are head and shoulders above the rest form-wise, so each-way punters have probably only got one place to play with.

Mind you, with only 10 at the five-day stage, I am little surprised to see all bookmakers offering 1,2,3 each way terms, though I suppose William Haggas will run all three of his with the trainers ' title on the line.

A 10/1 bet for you in the Balmoral Handicap

The 1m Balmoral Handicap rounds off the card at 16:40 and we have 51 entries vying for a run into a maximum field of 20. With over £100k to the winner, a lot of connections are going to be disappointed, as I imagine very few will drop out with the cash on offer.

Haggas could have three or four runners in here - maybe more - and I bet he was delighted when his Sweet Believer only got a 5lb rise after her 1 ½ -length second to the 110-rated Bayside Boy off levels at Sandown last time, with the then 109-rated Escobar (giving them 5lb) back in third and having won a handicap off 107 here last time (and presumably set to race here too, of 113 now under his 6lb penalty).

Haggas took his filly out of a Group 3 at Newmarket last week and, given that Sandown run was her first since last October, I am not in the least surprised to see her vying for favouritism at the 10/1 mark.

However, I do feel you may be best off delaying backing her, as she has clearly had her problems and is probably not an ante-post proposition as a result (which may be why she is 15.014/1 on the exchange).

I can see Blue For You going off favourite on Saturday so the opening 12s about him on the Sportsbook stood out for me.

He has form in some of the best 1m handicaps this season, and he needed all of the mile to claim his stablemate Escobar at York close home (with the third, Tyrrhenian Sea, one the favourites in here, 2 ¼ lengths away) in August, before coming here for a 7f handicap last time.

He travelled supremely well that day before the door shut on him 1f out and his seventh there does not do the promise of his run justice in the slightest. His in-running low of 2.0811/10 showed you what could have been that day with a clear passage.

It may well be that his lack of instant pace stopped him taking the gap when it was there, as he is a strong stayer over a mile - in fact, I am sure it was, and it was a similar story when he was second to Orbaan at Goodwood - so up another furlong here again, on this stiff track, and I think his chance is obvious and considerable.

Soft ground could be a problem I guess, as all his best form has come on good to firm, but he won on it in Ireland and it was officially good to soft (Timeform agreed) when he was unlucky here last time off this mark so hopefully it won't be an issue.

Now, when I wrote the first draft of this column on Monday afternoon, I was set to tip four horses, and the first three fell by the wayside for the reasons above. In particular, I would have loved to get Search For A Song and Verry Elleegant onside at this stage.

So you can imagine my glee when seeing the Sportsbook had cut Blue For You into 10s from 12s.

But I was going to put 10s as my guide price for him and the weather forecast has improved, so I am going to recommend a small-stakes win bet on him at the revised price of 10/1 with the Sportsbook.

Before I sign off, I will say that just once would I like to see a racetrack, and the sport's marketing arm, put punters first on big days like this.

Assign three people to ring round the connections of all entries on Monday, get a line on their running plans, and get it out there.

The betting turnover would rocket.

Good luck.