Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three to back at Sandown and Haydock up to 29/1

• Tony's 29/130.00 Sandown bet is in the form of his life

• Maasai Mara is one to back in the opening race

• Tacarib Bay carries TC's money again at Haydock

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El Fabiolo Superboost

Do you fancy El Fabiolo to win today's Celebration Chase at Sandown at 15:00? If so then head over to the Betfair Sportsbook where they've super-boosted his price from 8/111.73 to 1/12.00 for the Willie Mullins multiple Grade 1 winner.

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I imagine most would agree that the least enviable job in horse racing - with the possible exception of being the largely powerless CEO of the BHA - is a clerk of the course, but at least Sandown's Andrew Cooper has been up front and honest.

You may disagree but a note on the BHA site on Thursday morning laid it out, in stark terms, for us ante-post backers of good/fast ground horses, for all it didn't tell us how much irrigation is still going on. That really should be a given.

It read: "Watering commenced on Monday April 8 and continues daily, with the aim of having no ground quicker than Good for racing."

It's a good job Mr Frisk, winner of the Whitbread on rattling ground in 1990, isn't racing these days, but I guess we have to move with the health and safety times, if only for perception, as firm is an erased description over jumps these days.

We got 3.8mm of rain on Thursday afternoon, and with more due on Saturday (maybe around 14mm now, but thankfully a fair chunk of it from 5pm onwards according to the main site I use), that is not welcome news for my [20-1] ante-post fancy in the bet365 Gold Cup at 15:35, Annual Invictus.

The ground has already eased to good, good to soft, in places.

Antepost Tip Update - Sandown 15:35

Timeform have my antepost tip Annual Invictus down as two from two on fast ground, with a firm ground success at Newbury last year and a near career-best on good firm at Cheltenham in 2021.

Oh well, that watering, and possible further rain, has dampened my enthusiasm for him a touch, but my ante-post case stands for him obviously, and it is not as if it will be soft, is it?

And it is set to be a lovely day on Friday, so maybe I am being all much ado about nothing.

The argument for him is that he has a fair chance on his Doncaster win from the improving Forward Plan two starts ago (the runner-up is now 11lb higher). He ran well enough considering he would have hated the ground at Cheltenham last time and they will surely ride him more aggressively than they did when he finished a staying-on sixth in this race last season.

I always think dubious stayers should be ridden to get the trip in their normal and optimum style of racing and, in the case of Annual Invictus, that is most definitely from the front.

Sandown 15:35 - Back Sam Brown

I am not going to press up on Annual Invictus until I get a better handle on the ground on Saturday morning (the rain is due to start in the early hours), but two others interest me as of now.

They are Sam Brown and Certainly Red, sprightly youngsters at 12 and 10 years old respectively. In fact, I nearly put up the former alongside Annual Invictus at 33s in Monday's ante-post column.

The former is giving Nick Rockett and Weveallbeeencaught five years here, and everything else at least two, but you could argue he is in the form of his life, perhaps an Aintree win, and a Charlie Hall third, in 2022 aside.

And that has coincided with the visor going on for the first time at Warwick in January, and thereafter.

He is also officially the best handicapped horse in the race, as he is 4lb well-in after his splitting big recent improvers Cruz Control and Forward Plan in Liverpool last time.

On the two occasions, he has gone this far, he fell in the Grand National and he was pulled up in a Haydock Grand National Trial. But he has certainly shaped like this kind of stamina test would suit on a few times this season, giving his strong-finishing efforts over 3m+, not least at Aintree last time.

I always had him pegged as a soft ground horse but he has arguably proven otherwise of late - I say arguably as Timeform called it soft at Aintree last time, and good to soft at Ascot the time before - and it can only be his age that makes him available at 33s.

Back him at 30.029/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. In fact, 25s+ there will be fine (he is a general 25, and 33s in a place, in the wider marketplace).

Yes, he may be taken out of his comfort zone early here - there is a possibility he simply may not get into it - but hopefully he can keep tabs on them and come home late and strong. And he is one horse of mine who would not have minded the watering, and any more rain.

Personally, I am also going to have my third bet in the race on Certainly Red, as last year's seventh strikes me as the type of horse who could improve for new headgear, as he often only consents to finish off his race only when it is too late. And Lydia Richards is one from three with first-time cheekpieces since 2017.

I will stop short of putting him up here as three selections in one race is probably not on (though I have no problems backing four or five if the prices are right), but I have punted him at an average price of around 32.031/1 on the Exchange.

Sandown 13:50 - Back Maasai Mara

Normally when a horse I fancy is clipped from 20s to 18s to 14s to 10s with the Sportsbook, I tend to walk away in a huff, but that is not the case with Maasai Mara in the 2m handicap hurdle at 13:50.

I still have to get with him somehow.

The fixed-odds, each-way, five places, angle is clearly gone for now - I gave him a good shout at 14s on the Racing Only Bettor podcast, which came out on Thursday, but he will surely drift back out - but for now back him at 15.014/1 or bigger on the Exchange.

Go no lower than 12s, anyway.

The 20s in the marketplace may have gone but he is still 14s in eight places on the Oddschecker grid, so that is a very fair price to aim at, win only (as I always say, you know what to do).

You may have to be patient but you'll surely get filled in such a hugely competitive handicap. He could easily be back trading in the 20s come Saturday morning, as he doesn't hail from a sexy yard (though they are two from seven on the Flat this month).

Maasai Mara actually got raised 7lb for his recent second to an odds-on, 130-rated Paul Nicholls horse in a Hereford novices' hurdle, and good job he did as he wouldn't have got in here otherwise.

And I still think his revised mark of 119 is workable.

That Hereford race was run in a very good time, and his earlier wide-margin defeat of dual subsequent winner Golden Maverick (balloted out of this on Thursday morning - see below for all details there) at Catterick also reads very well.

When you consider this horse was bought out of the Gosdens' yard for 170,000 guineas after hitting a rating of 87 (he ran a good fourth on quick ground at Epsom on Derby day), then you have to think a mark of 119 is not his top-end over hurdles, nor should it be after just three runs.

The first-time cheekpieces is not a positive as such on the figures (John O'Shea is one from 28 since 2016 with them) but I am not going to let that deter me.

That said, he did wears blinkers on the Flat and won twice in them, including at the first time of asking.

And hopefully the cherry on the betting cake is that 4yos still get an 8lb age allowance in this (that age group copped in this race in 2021 and 2023). He is a qualifier there, along with An Bradan Feasa (still on the bridle turning in the straight in the Boodles before cutting out, and a potential player here - he will be a saver for me at 20s+) and Yellow Star.

Sandown 14:25 - No bet

Talking of cutting out, rather up, the Oaksey Chase at 14:25 has been weakened considerably by no-shows, so much so that a host of out-of-form horses fill the top four slots in the betting.

So I was surprised that the Sportsbook opened up with quotes of 10s and 25s respectively about Al Dancer and Fantastic Lady, who at least come in here in some sort of recent nick.

I wasn't alone, as they were quickly trimmed into to 15/28.50 and 16/117.00.

They will clearly struggle if any of the form horses come alive again - I can certainly see Hitman fitting that bill (and so can Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls in his Saturday runners preview), but not at the Sportsbook's 9/43.25 thanks - as, for example, Fantastic Lady is rated a mere 142, over a stone shy of three of these.

But the 11yo Al Dancer wasn't far off his best in the old Racing Post Chase last time, and hails from a stable in excellent form (see below). Better ground could be key to Fantastic Lady making a big leap forward on her runs this season, and she actually ran another good race in the Topham last time.

Actually, when I said she has over a stone to find, that isn't strictly true, as she gets weight all round here, so she is the overpriced one.

However, I want to see how much rain lands early on Saturday before putting her up. I will if we don't get much and the price remains in the current ballpark. I may even dutch the above pair.

But I always fear rain on heavily-watered ground, and I looked at a few other weather sites (they do tend to vary a fair bit, as well as change dramatically), and MyWeather2.com currently has 10.5mm landing in Esher between midnight and 6am on Saturday morning.

Oof.

Sandown 15:00 - No bet

I have no betting opinion in what looks a match between El Fabiolo and Jonbon in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase at 15:00 but at least we look like seeing a cracker after two failed attempts to get the pair to lock horns this season.

Logic suggests 9/43.25 Jonbon is far more preferable to 4/61.67 El Fabiolo - or 3.39/4 versus 1.84/5 on the Exchange - but no bet is probably the right call here.

Leicester 14:05 - No bet

There was a bit of chat going round on Thursday that there was an outside chance racing wouldn't go ahead at both Haydock and Leicester on Saturday, which provide one race apiece for ITV racing.

That was something of a surprise, as both courses are officially a mixture of soft and heavy, and the forecast at both venues isn't too bad, as it stands (currently 2mm at both). In fact, they look certain to be on, unless there is a massive change in the predicted weather.

Mind you, Leicester's going stick reading of 3.1, as at 7.15am on Thursday, suggested it was probably much deeper than predominantly soft there.

That would be just peachy for Thunder Roar in the 14:05 as he has form figures of 213112 on soft or heavy going and comes here after a good second to Look Back Smiling (also entered at Haydock but connections are leaning to running here, apparently) at Doncaster last time, a race that he could have won well on another day perhaps, as he didn't get a smooth run through.

He went up 3lb for that, and is on a career-high mark now, but he will surely relish conditions and he initially looked a good each-way bet at 5s with the Sportsbook.

His trainer duo haven't had a winner in 22 attempts this season, but eight have been placed and they have had two seconds at 8s and 10s recently, with the latter coming on Wednesday,

You have to respect last year's winner Al Mubhir and Raadobarg in particular - in fact, it's a deep enough race for a nine-runner heat - but Thunder Roar is arguably every bit as solid.

I was all set to tip him, and indeed I wrote the copy doing so on Thursday, before sleeping on it and reviewing each selection. As well as looking for others I have missed, and changing prices and the like.

However, he was cut from 5s to 4s just before 9am, so that blocked that each-way bet.

In the final analysis though, I had asked myself do I really want to be betting at a track with a Friday morning going stick reading of 3.6 (actually improved from the above 3.1 in the last 24 hours)? Leicester can be a specialist track too, and five of the opposition are course winners.

And maybe Thunder Roar's draw in eight is not ideal on this round course either, something that only occurred to me on Friday morning.

So it's a no here.

Haydock 14:45 - Back Tacarib Bay

I was also initially looking to get with last year's Rainbow Fire in the 7f handicap at 14:45 at Haydock but, again, the ground was clearly off-putting for him (his worst run has come on soft) - Haydock got 3mm yesterday - and, more importantly, he is five points bigger in a place, and similarly three points larger in a couple of other joints.

Not a tempting combination, even if he is on the same winning mark as last season and from a stable finding its feet now.

So I went looking for an alternative, and I have history with a few of the others, as I imagine most Haydock regulars will do.

Tacarib Bay has carried my cash a few times before, and his Haydock record of 112 is rather good considering that defeat came against subsequent Queen Anne winner Triple Time in a Group 3.

The handicapper is being stubborn enough in only dropping him 3lb for his last three defeats (all by at least 2 ½ lengths) but he is actually down to the same mark as when winning here on soft ground in July 2022.

Again, I am worried about betting in bad ground - and Pat Dobbs doesn't want to get too far back from his outside draw in 10 here, as Cieren Fallon did on the favourite Montassib from stall 11 last year - but I thought he was worth a few quid at 9/110.00 win-only with the Sportsbook, or 10.09/1 or bigger on the Exchange, given the track form and the handicapper easing him 2lb for his latest run.

He had a spin to get him straight at Wolverhampton last month and he should get a good pace to aim at. Hopefully he can pick up the trailblazers like Gweedore close home. He has 6f all-weather speed but he stays a mile, so Dobbs needs to be cute here.

Please check out the Saturday morning update to this column (I'm pretty sure there will be one), as there could well be one or two bets in that Oaksey Chase once I know the state of the ground.

Until then, go well.

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Going

Sandown : Good, good to soft in places (going stick readings suggests marginally better ground on hurdles track)

Watering: "Commenced on Monday April 8 and continues daily, with the aim of having no ground quicker than Good for racing."

Leicester: Soft, heavy patches in places

Haydock: Heavy, soft in places

Balloted out

(money back for ante-post punters - probably 9 horses)

1.15pm Sandown - Golden Maverick, Got Grey, Hamsiyann, Highway One O Five

3.35pm Sandown - Flash de Touzaine and Your Own Story are currently reserves, so likely; Full Back, We'llhavewan, and Magna Sam are the definites

First-time headgear

Ben Pauling cheekpieces 8-68 (since 2021)

Warren Greatrex cheekpieces 10-72 (2019)

John O'Shea cheekpieces 1-28 (2016)

Gary Moore blinkers 24-174 (2009)

Gary Moore cheekpieces 7-86 (2016)

Willie Mullins cheekpieces 8-42 (2016)

Dan Skelton cheekpieces 17-102 (2016)

Lydia Richards cheekpieces 1-3 (2017)

Paul Nicholls blinkers 12-79 (2009)

Lucy Wadham cheekpieces 4-47 (2016)

Pace maps

1.50pm Sandown: Panjari, Cannock Park, Steel Ally, Act Of Authority, Fire Flyer, Secret Squirrell ?, Court In The Act

2.25pm Sandown: Easy Game, The Real Whacker, Al Dancer

3pm Sandown: Editeur Du Gite, Edwardstone?, Elixir Du Nutz

3.35pm Sandown: Threeunderthrufive, Minella Cocooner, Annual Invictus, Aime Desjy, Slipway, Enrilo, Bangers And Cash, Flash Collonges

2.05pm Leicester: Raadobarg, Al Mubhir, Miss Cantik, Dashing Roger

2.45pm Haydock: Sparks Fly, Gweedore, Zip?, Roach Power

Trainer form

For all with runners in ITV races (does not include Friday's results):

Good: Sam Thomas, Nicholls, Derham, Mullins (though arguably more fair), Botti, Cromwell (fair recent run), Olly Murphy (four winners on Thursday), Morrison, O'Shea

Fair: Haggas (coming into form, though), Boughey (not many winners but going well enough), Coyle/Wood (winnerless in 2024 but two recent seconds), King (fair recent run), Jones, Greatrex, Snowden (borderline moderate), Henderson (approaching good), Honeyball, Pauling, Amy Murphy (good recent run), Russell, O'Meara (big-numbers trainer, so rarely impressive figures), Hannon, Fry, Tutty (16-1 winner with last runner), Skelton (a treble at Warwick on Thursday), England, De Bromhead, William Stone (not many runners but a 33-1 winner and a short-head second at Yarmouth)

Moderate: Fahey (a winner on Thursday), Ian Williams (though three fair-priced winners, so borderline fair), West, David Loughnane (though two winners this month), Neville (though very few runners), Lewis, Tizzard (though 8-1 winner on Wednesday), Moore (who getting back among winners this week, with 18-1 scorer at Taunton), Bailey (though a very welcome winner on Wednesday, and two subsequent seconds, so certainly improving), Christian Williams (though a 100-1 second on Thursday), Gordon (borderline fair), Bowen, Twiston-Davies, Daly, Tim Easterby (though improving of late), O'Neill

Undecided: Katie Scott, Robson, Doyle (two recent seconds), Richards (very few runners in 2024, though decent strike rate)

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Now read Paul Nicholls: Hitman is best of many strong chances at Sandown on Saturday

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