Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's Newbury pair to back at 12/1 and 14/1

• TC says expect soft ground at Newbury

• 12/113.00 Shanty is right up our Alley

• 14/115.00 Henry's Friend is one to have on your side

A feature of National Hunt racing of late is how the going stick readings don't seem to tally up with certain ground descriptions.

Aintree were calling it soft with a reading of 2.8 earlier in the week (although I'm not sure how many bought the reasons given for that discrepancy) and Newbury could be another case in point on Saturday.

They are currently calling it good to soft, soft in places, but the going stick reading on the hurdles course was a mere 3.5 (chase track is 4.1) on Thursday morning.

I am going with soft as my working assumption, as there is a bit rain around on Friday and maybe 7mm on Saturday (though the BHA site says most of that may arrive after racing, which my main site agrees with).

There are some very exciting prospects on show at Newbury, for all three races on the card have attracted six runners of less.

Two of those are unfortunately on ITV and I am rather surprised the other, the five-strong Introductory Hurdle at 12:40, hasn't been switched to the main channel given we have three unbeaten horses on show (including the Supreme favourite) in that contest, and a decent Gary Moore horse off the Flat in France.

I know you would be switching a small field for a small field but that 4yo contest looks potentially very hot and of great interest.

But ITV start with the six-runner 2m69yd handicap chase at 13:15.

Well, it will probably be five as Richhill is due to run at Doncaster on Friday, which is why I imagine bookmakers were slow to price this up on Thursday.

Newbury 13:15 - No bet

There seems plenty of pace in here (which may suit the closer Issar D'Airy) but I thought The Russian Doyen shaped well to two out on his return after a long break (some 621 days) and the handicapper has given him a real chance.

He was dropped 4lb for that run, and he is already 1lb lower than when winning by 4 ½ lengths under Harry Cobden (he takes the ride for the first time since) here in February 2022, just three starts ago.

There is always that nagging doubt with the second run off a big absence but The Russian Doyen has a good course record (when completing) and he finished runner-up in this race in 2021.

He is a 9/25.50 chance (5s elsewhere), though there will be a 15p Rule 4 if Richhill goes to Donny, as currently planned, as he is 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook.

I'll stop short of putting up The Russian Doyen, as I could make a convincing case for four of the probable five, but he is the bet in the race if there is one. Admittedly, the 7/42.75 favourite Martator could be hard to whack, though.

Newbury 13:50 - No bet

Get A Tonic is the justified favourite for the 2m4f+ handicap hurdle at 13:50 - the Sportsbook go 7/42.75 - after her all-the-way win here last time, and she could get a solo once again unless Silent Revolution reverts to front-running tactics after a wind op, and Venetia Williams' French recruit Now Or Never declines to go on, as he has done on occasions.

I thought the latter pair are fair prices at 7s and 8s respectively, but this is not a race I am itching to get involved in.

Newbury 14:25 - Back Shanty Alley

Prices were also slow to filter through on Thursday afternoon for the 3m2f handicap chase at 14:25 and I was hoping not to be disappointed by how Shanty Alley was chalked up by the Sportsbook.

The case for him was simple and straightforward, in that he is 5lb lower than when a 3/4-length 2nd in this race last season (Laskalin 5 ½ lengths away in third) and I imagine his reappearance Catterick run was a tee-up job for those.

He drifted to 17/29.50 to 11/112.00 on the show (Betfair SP of 15.5) that day, so I thought he shaped okay, all things considered. He has never won first time up too, so I was encouraged by the run.

The first firm up made Shanty Alley a 14s poke, and then three outfits went 16s.

The Sportsbook went 12/113.00 and the others going bigger pretty much fell into line. Back him win-only (though the Sportsbook are paying for places for each-way punters) at that 12s, or 13.012/1 or bigger on the Exchange.

There will be a Rule 4 if Haydock goes ahead, as that is Fantastikas' first preference. He is 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook and that is a 10p Rule 4.

The admittedly out-of-form Laskalin has also been given a good chance by the handicapper - down to 128, from 133 last year - and there is a chance the lead is there for him and Shanty Alley to take.

I suspect Bowtogreatness may be the main danger to Shanty Ally, but the Sportsbook agree and are ducking him to a fair degree at 13/27.50, as he is bigger everywhere else, so my hands are tied as regards as a saver on him. Mind you, that 13/27.50 could be generous come the off.

Newbury 15:00 - No bet

I think the Grade 1 Challow at 15:00 is an absolute belter and I wasn't at all surprised to see Captain Teague quickly shorten from an opening 5/16.00 into 7/24.50 with the Sportsbook on Thursday.

Both he and the Sportsbook's 13/27.50 chance Lookaway - the latter missed tempting 2m engagements in the Betfair Exchange Trophy and Tolworth to come here over 2m4f, presumably by design - are the horses to beat form-wise and on the clock, but the presence of Willmount looms large. Very large, perhaps.

There is no way I could tip him at the Sportsbook's 6/42.50 but he was hugely impressive against relative trees here last time (the second was beaten 16 lengths at Taunton next time, and the third was stuffed 26 lengths at Doncaster, even if the fourth did win afterwards) and he could be top notch, given his overall unbeaten profile.

But this 340k purchase has to go and do it in this much higher grade and I am also a little surprised he is being stepped up to 2m4f, albeit he is a winning pointer, not that that means a great deal. He has not looked short of pace.

I think the value in the wider marketplace probably lies with Lookaway at 15/28.50 - the [17/2[ was taken on Thursday - but I do have a feeling that Willmount could be an unbackable (at his current price anyway) good 'un, so I'll sit tight.

The unbeaten Johnnywho, at 9/25.50, has been very impressive in a lower grade, too. It's a very good race and it will tell us plenty.

Newbury 15:35 - Back Henry's Friend

I thought the eight-runner 2m6f93yd novices' handicap chase at 15:35 was really tricky, with no real clues being offered by the pace map.

Walking On Air could step up over fences and an opening chase mark of 138 looks fair, but his price is nothing flash at 7/24.50 and you could easily fancy three or four others at their current odds.

One of those is certainly Henry's Friend who shaped well enough on his chasing debut after a wind op over 2m3f at Doncaster on his return. His jumping looked okay in the main, and he wasn't really given a hard time at any stage, and the longer trip here could well suit him.

A mark of 126 (dropped a handy 2lb from Doncaster) looks very fair on his novice hurdle form, which included a Doncaster win and a second in a 2m4f Grade 2 on soft ground at Sandown.

He was 12 in places when the betting opened, and the Sportsbook opened up at a welcoming 14/115.00. That is big enough to get me involved here, or at a similar price on the Exchange.

We also have a couple of races from Taunton and Haydock on the box.

The going at the former track is good to soft, soft in places, after they got 14mm on Wednesday and 2mm on Thursday - they are due another 13mm on race-day - and the latter course is heavy.

Once again, Haydock have had little luck with the weather, and they are also due a wet Friday (3mm) and a very unpleasant 16mm on Saturday.

I am not sure I want to be betting or tipping at Haydock then, and it is sad to see such a great track (and it was genuinely excellent when I was there in September) not even get one eight-runner field for their seven-race card on Saturday.

Haydock 13:25 - No bet

The ITV race there is (perhaps, unwisely) the 3m4f97yd handicap chase at 13:25 and that is not going to be pretty viewing.

I suppose a light racing weight could be a massive advantage in the conditions, so Robyndzone could be best suited, as he will only be carrying 9st 12lb once Ned Fox's 5lb claim is factored in (and Fox has done 9st 11lb) .

He looked a real stayer when winning over an extended 3m1f at Ludlow (fell at Sandown last time) and, although he has officially never raced on anything worse than soft, Timeform had it as heavy when he won at Huntingdon in 2020.

His general price of 9s is fair (though one firm who shall not be named are currently going a ridiculous 16s) but I am not playing, even though the Sportsbook have just gone up at a very tempting 12/113.00. Very tempting.

As Aintree and Chepstow have shown in recent days, it is probably a coin-toss whether even heavy ground winners can handle it when it gets this deep.

Will the meeting even be on?

Taunton 14:10 - No bet

Unfortunately, Taunton's two terrestrial races have only netted a combined total of 11 runners.

At the top of the market, I'd definitely favour Caso No Mento at 2s over 4/51.80 Queen's Gamble in the mares' novices' hurdle at 14:10, but there is little juice in her price for all she looked very good at Hereford last time, and connections immediately named this race as her "big aim".

I do like it when a plan comes together, as one TV character once said.

Taunton 14:45 - No bet

Game Winner, the 9/43.25 favourite, could get his own way in front in the 3m handicap hurdle at 14:45 (although will they want to go forward in the first-time cheekpieces ?) but I was half-tempted to give Moke Da Vassy another chance.

He was bitterly disappointing when I tipped him at Cheltenham last time, but his sights are lowered here. I have no doubt that a mark of 123 gives him winning claims, as he would have won had he jumped at Exeter the time before, but he is becoming disappointing and the Sportsbook are alive to his chances, going 4s when he 5s and 6s elsewhere.

Good luck.

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