Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's four to back from 4/1 to 40/1

• Great ranges of prices for TC's Saturday quartet

• Nayati better bet than Mctigue in Morebattle

• Enemy Coast Ahead backed at 40/1

I imagine Emmet Mullins would have been looking for more leniency than he got for his Mctigue in Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle at 13:50 after two no-shows in Graded company, but the UK assessor has lumped him with another 6lb.

The problem for Mullins, apart from his well-deserved reputation for making handicappers nervous, was that the horse's Grade 2 win at Auteuil in October worked out rather too well.

The ¾-length second St Donats won a Grade 1 by 11 lengths the following month. Furthermore, the 10-length third was only just touched off in a Grade 2 chase next time, the 20-length fourth chased home St Donats in that Grade 1 and the 24 3/4-length fifth won a chase by six lengths on his following outing.

Price puts off bet on Mctigue

Mctigue was also rated as high as 98 on the Flat when with Jim Bolger, with plenty of his form on decent ground (the going is currently good to soft, with soft in places, but it could dry out). In addition, as a 4yo, he gets 10lb from the older horses too, which is yet another nod to the stable's excellent race-planning.

You can also forgive him his last two runs as he raced on the unfavoured inner at Auteuil in November, and he was not persevered with at all when dropping away from halfway at Leopardstown over Christmas.

The issue, as ever, is the price. The opposition is also a factor. I have a lot of time for many of them, most obviously L'Eau Du Sud and Deere Mark, strong travellers who I tipped for their last intended starts, only for them not to run because of an abandonment and quick ground respectively.

I don't have much of an issue with Mctigue at 7/2 and bigger on the Betfair Exchange. But this is a handicap with plenty of depth, and connections may have to consider going to the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham (he wouldn't pick up a penalty for the Boodles, so that would be a more obvious target if they were going for the 100k bonus) if he wins this well off 142.

Nayati can repay my faith

I was going to leave the race alone - L'Eau Du Sud and Deere Mark have hardly been missed in the market either - but then I landed on Nayati, who cost me a right few quid when running moderately at Musselburgh last time.

But I went back and looked at that race and, to be perfectly honest, I don't think he got much of a ride at all there. Very little urgency. And maybe he also wasn't ideally positioned on the inner all the way.

Admittedly, he does have an in-and-out profile but he is in with a big shout here if returning to the form of his Musselburgh win on New Year's Day.

He beat Collingham that day, a stablemate who won the race he disappointed in last time and who re-opposes here, and that contest has worked out very well.

Not only did the second win next time, so did the third (Thereisnodoubt, who also runs here) and the fifth, so I think he remains very well handicapped off just a 3lb higher mark.

I have no opinion on 5lb claimer Peter Kavanagh, but I'd personally rather take the weight than have Brian Hughes on board, champion jockey or not.

Back him at 16/1 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

I am also going to back him win-only on the Betfair Exchange, too as it isn't hard to see him drifting to a big price there with so many sexier horses in opposition. He is actually 25s in a place fixed-odds but I just ignore those prices.

Back Baxter in the opener

Bill Baxter appealed as the pick of the odds in the opener at Kelso at 13:15, even though you obviously have to be wary of Sholokjack after what he did at Lingfield last time.

Bill Baxter has seemingly turned a big corner after a wind operation in October, beating a subsequent winner at Lingfield, scoring here next time, and then looking unfortunate to fall four out when going well at Hereford.

It was a strange mishap as he looked to jump the fence fine and simply crumpled on landing - very much like Galopin Des Champs at Cheltenham last year - so he has strong claims and 4/1 with the Sportsbook is more than acceptable.

Any 3/1 or bigger will do me.

The Grade 2 novices' hurdle at 14:25 looks hugely competitive, with all the 11 runners having chances of sorts.

Indeed, the Sportsbook's initial 40/1 outsider Banjaxed travelled and shaped very well against a Willie Mullins hotpot with Ballymore and Albert Bartlett entries on his hurdling debut at Navan. Little wonder the 40s was taken (now 25/1), even if he may simply be coming over to keep the stable's Morebattle runner Colonel Mustard company.

Emmet Mullins throws another curveball by running his hurdling debutant Feronily in here, the 6yo having finished a good third in a Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival, but the most solid horse in the race is surely Nemean Lion at 9/2 with the Sportsbook.

A good stayer on the Flat in France, with Group 2 form over 1m7f, he has improved with every start over hurdles and the step up in trip will suit him after a good third in the Tolworth last time, a race in which Colonel Harry was the best part of 3 lengths away in fourth.

But it is a tricky race, with a fair few unknowns, so I can live without a bet.

Take a leap of faith on Enemy

I am certainly getting stuck into the 2m5f handicap hurdle at 15:00, as Enemy Coast Ahead looks a hugely tempting bet at 40/1 each-way.

Any 25/1+ would be fine, but 40s is generally available in the wider marketplace.

It takes a leap of faith to back him as he has hardly been sighted in two runs here this season, but they have been on heavy ground, and at least he has been dropped 7lb for them.

All his best form for previous trainer Olly Murphy came on a better surface, and he is now 8lb lower than for good efforts at Ayr and Newbury in defeat in the 2021/22 season, with his fourth to Dashel Drasher on the latter track a particularly solid run in the context of this handicap.

He was actually balloted out of the Morebattle but this looks more his trip anyway, and the first-time cheekpieces, allied to better ground, could see him return to form.

Katie Scott has had 16/1 and 11/2 winners from her last three runners (on the Flat), and she is one from 10 with initial cheekpieces, including three seconds and a third.

That'll do for me.

No betting opinion in the Premier Chase at 15:35, a race that looks set to be reduced to four runners with Zanza's first preference being the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury at 14:45.

I'm not biting

I can see The Big Bite giving course specialists Zanza and Paint The Dream something to think about in that handicap, as he is 9lb lower than when second to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last season, he will enjoy the ground (set to be good, even though 20mm has gone down on Wednesday and Thursday) and he ran well on his only previous start at this track.

He wears first-time cheekpieces too after a couple of modest runs this term (though Henry Oliver is 0 from 11 with this angle) - he has a very similar profile to Enemy Coast Ahead - and he was all set to be a small-stakes recommendation at 33/1 before he was cut to 20s on Thursday afternoon.

So, being Mr Price Conscious, I withdrew the tip at the last minute. You have to draw the line somewhere.

He has obvious blow-out potential but if he returns to the form of that length, dead-heat second to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster, he could well spring a surprise, though the juice has been squeezed out of the price at 20/1.

Jay Bee Why to run a big race

Jay Bee Why looks a pretty solid proposition in the earlier 2m4f handicap hurdle at 14:10, and he rates a bet at 13/2 with the Sportsbook.

No big story here. He is 7lb lower than his peak hurdles mark and he comes here after a good third over 3m here last time, a trip that appeared to stretch his stamina.

Down in distance to an extended 2m4f on ground he will enjoy, he is surely set to run a big race.

Happy with Does He Know position at Donny

Up at Doncaster, I tipped Does He Know win-only at 9/2 on Tuesday for the Grimthorpe at 15:15 , and I am happy with that position, without feeling the need to press up at around the 3/1 mark.

He defied 12st when winning a 3m3f Cheltenham handicap that worked out well in November, so he can give lumps of weight away (despite apparently not being a big unit). He ran as well as could be expected over an extended 2m7f, a trip shy of his optimum, when third in the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase last time.

The winner, the aforementioned Zanza, obviously just loves that gaff and the second, Hitman, went into the race rated 160.

So in finishing an 8 ½ length third, giving the front two 4lb, he posted a very solid effort and the handicapper actually dropped him 1lb for it.

Trainer Kim Bailey has had a poor spell recently, and he is without a winner since January - El Rio fell at the last when odds-on to win at Chepstow last week - but Does He Know can hopefully get one on the board for him.

All of that said, I won't be having a fresh bet and the other ITV race on the Doncaster card, the six-runner 2m handicap chase at 13:30, isn't that interesting from a punting point of view either.

Far more bets than of late this weekend, but each one of them more than justified at the prices.

Good luck.

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