Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's found a massive outsider in the Cesarewitch

It is a sign of the times I guess, but it is still sad to see only 22 line up for the Cesarewitch on Saturday. We are used to bunfights of 30 or more charging up the straight, spread right across the track, but not this weekend.

At least it has reduced the importance of the draw and minimised hard luck stories I suppose, and two of the 12 we lost from the five-day stage were market leaders in the shape of Waterville and, tragically with a heart attack on the gallops on Thursday morning, Adagio.

Mullins has a superb chance of success

That means if you played ante-post then you are surely on a shortener, and that is the case with the one I landed on in my Tuesday ante-post column, Scaramanga, who is having his first start for Willie Mullins.

He was 25/1+ on the exchange then but he is now around 10 points shorter so obviously I am very happy with the position.

And what I said about him then obviously still holds.

He actually ran for Paul Nicholls in this race last season, finishing well down the field, but he basically went off the boil after his previous Newbury success over an extended 2m, so I can forgive him that run.

And we all know how Mullins can revitalise and improve - even from Ditcheat, as we have seen - and this is a horse who was once rated 150 over hurdles (winning over 2m4f at Sandown) and 93 on the Flat after that Newbury success (which saw him beat a horse in Rodrigo Diaz who is now rated 14lb higher).

He can race off 90 here, so Mullins has plenty of back-form to work on, and the going looks set to be perfect for him (if they don't over-water - they have put 5mm on so far) as he wants decent ground. It is currently officially good.

Jason Watson, who won this race for Mullins in 2020 and 2019, guiding Scaramanga's owner Malcolm Denmark's Great White Shark to a 3-length victory as a 9/2 favourite two years ago, is on board, so that's fair enough.

The nagging doubt about him is whether he is best at 2m - Nicholls thought that trip was his optimum - but he ran well enough to 2f out before the petrol gauge went empty over 2m4f in the Ascot Stakes in June (on quick ground), and Mullins' infamously testing gallops will have told him plenty about any stamina limitations or otherwise.

He is here, so that is good enough for me.

The fancy prices have obviously gone, but so have two of the ante-post favourites, so the current 16s on the exchange is very fair.

I feel no need to press up myself, though.

Mullins has a very strong hand in here, as I can definitely see the case for his progressive Gibraltar and Baby Zeus, the latter a full brother to the stable's 2m4f Ascot Stakes winner Lagostovegas, as well.

Outsider catches the eye

However, I will make sure I don't lose if Ahorsewithnoname wins as I think she is by far the most likely winner and not a bad price at all at touching 5/1 on the exchange - she would prefer ease in the ground but she really was impressive when we last saw her in May and a 10lb rise may not stop her - but Moliwood looks a fascinating outsider that I cannot ignore.

I appreciate he has made all in the past over 1m4f, but I was surprised they went from the front with him at Doncaster last time, as clearly his mark couldn't be affected as this is an early-closer - he is normally ridden far more patiently, and he was also tried (in a now discarded) tongue-tie there - and I assume those tactics will be ditched here after he dropped away to finish last of 10 there.

He had previously shaped on a few occasions that a trip in excess of 2m would suit when trained by Marco Botti (including when coming late to win off this mark over 2m at Kempton in January, a race in which a certain Coltrane was fourth off 97) and that was also the case on his debut for Dylan Cunha at the Shergar Cup meeting in August.

Another massive win-only bet...

I must admit that I had never heard of Cunha before but I see he has had a winner already in his brief training career here - a quick google search revealed he was a Grade 1-winning trainer in South Africa - and his horse's Ascot fourth in August was a very decent effort.

He was only a length behind recent winner Going Gone (also runs here) that day and dead-heated for fourth with Island Brave (who won next time), so he is not the total no-hoper the market suggests. He was actually 100/1 in a place on Friday afternoon.

It is no surprise that Cunha is 0 from 0 (in the UK at least) with the first-time cheekpieces he puts on his horse here (replacing blinkers), but it is half-interesting to note the dam ran her best race in them.

Either way, I have backed him at 100/1 and will do so again at 100.099/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange. He is trading at 100.099/1 as this column goes live, albeit the liquidity hasn't arrived in force just yet.

The very lowest I would go is 90.089/1 - he is also 66s, six places, with the Sportsbook - as quite clearly he has the potential to drift like a barge when the market hots up come Saturday afternoon. He hardly has the sexiest profile after finishing stone last at Donny - though, aside from the tactics, maybe the ground was too soft for him there, which hopefully will not be the case again here - and he is a win-only bet.

Leave an order up at 100.099/1 on the exchange if you can't immediately get filled.

You can obviously make a case for plenty more - and I wasn't surprised to see that the Sportsbook's opening 40s about Bascule was taken - but I will leave it there.

I will not take up any of your time with the three juvenile races that open the card.

Yes, I am sure they will all be very informative contest going forward - and, even in the absence of Sakheer, the Dewhurst looks a cracker - but I deal in the here and now betting-wise and none interest me at all in that regard.

Hardly the stuff of a purist granted, but I make no apologies for being a punter, first and foremost. The sport is funded by our losses - along with the cash input of the owners - and everyone would do well to take notice of that fact before the sport falls off a cliff.

As Boycie always says on Sky Sports Racing: "It's all about the betting, stupid."

The ITV racing at York doesn't get any more bet-inducing, with yet another 2yo race, a six-runner handicap (one of whom he is due to run on Friday), and a 22-runner 6f handicap at a time when I am increasingly giving these type of races a swerve.

If anybody tells you that they are anything more than a lottery 90 per cent at the time, watch their nose grow as they speak.

Mind you, we struck lucky with Dusky Lord in the Ayr Silver Cup and he rocks up here again off a 9lb higher mark. I doubt that rise would have stopped him winning there - he was cantering all over them from halfway - so little surprise that he heads the exchange market at around 8s.

I suppose the one that interested me most at the prices was the Sportsbook's opening 33/1 about Gis A Sub. He started the season rated 106 after a Gimcrack second at two, and is now down to 96, and it isn't as if he has been running that badly since being gelded two starts ago.

However, the 33s became 20s on Thursday night.

And, look, I could give you a shortlist of 10 in here and still not feel remotely confident of tipping the winner, so I am probably going to have my quietest Saturday this year on the betting front.

And that is the way it should be when you fancy very little.

Good luck.