Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Scaramanga at 26/1 for Saturday's Cesarewitch

ITV racing does not get a universally good press when it comes to the content of their coverage, but you cannot fault them for the sheer extent of their output. They do the sport proud in that regard.

For example, their Friday show this week consists of a whopping terrestrial 10 races, and I don't think I have ever seen that before on a week day before, be it BBC, Channel 4 or ITV.

The tiresome "Road To Cheltenham" groupies will be pleased to see the first phoney start to the jumps season start at Chepstow on Friday, and we also have Newmarket and York on the box.

Extremes of ground unlikely

The going at the Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket looks set to start on good ground, with no rain of any note currently forecast (about 3mm or so). Read on until the end on that note, though.

That is also my loose working assumption for Chepstow as well - they are watering there, despite a fair bit of rain on some forecasts - but York is on the easy side with an unsettled forecast, so maybe we are looking at good to soft there.

No extremes of ground look likely at the moment, anyway.

With the ante-post markets closing on Friday's racing at 10am on Wednesday, it makes sense to focus on just Saturday's fare here, and the Cesarewitch takes pride of place there in betting terms.

And that is going to be the sole focus of this column.

Trio vying for favouritism

It doesn't look like we are going to get a maximum field of 34, as we only have 35 entries at the five-day stage, but that at least means finding the winner is a touch more manageable at this stage.

Not a lot admittedly, but it means we don't have the issue of horses not getting a run, or being balloted out, to contend with.

Waterville, Adagio and Ahorsewithnoname are vying for favouritism in the marketplace, though it is more clear-cut with the Betfair Sportsbook as they make the former their 7/2 favourite (and all the fixed-odds 5s disappeared about him on Monday).

And I think the fact that William Buick was jocked up on Ahorsewithnoname on Monday is a fair indication that Waterville is an intended runner (or possibly Wordsworth, I guess) as Ryan Moore had been earmarked to ride Nicky Henderson's horse for a while.

Moore will obviously be claimed for Waterville if he runs.

Let's assess the three market leaders then, starting with Aidan O'Brien's Irish Cesarewitch winner.

Henderson horse is best of big three

He is well-in under a 4lb penalty for that startling Curragh victory last time, a race which he did remarkably well to win considering Wayne Lordan had to weave his way through the field to nail Echoes In Rain close home.

This is a horse that was considered a live Derby hopeful as an unraced horse at the beginning of the season by the yard - he started at odds-on when beaten on his first three starts -and you sense that only now is he fulfilling the potential his homework hinted at during the spring.

He has an obvious chance, and he is currently trading at 5.59/2 on the Exchange.

Ahorsewithnoname, 11/2 with the Sportsbook (who are paying five places) is the one I like best of the Big Three.

A 50/1 second in the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham in March, she has since been hugely impressive in winning two Flat starts, sauntering clear for a 5-length win when we last saw her at York in May.

The downside of those successes is she has been hiked up 16lb in the handicap but there is real substance to that last victory - the runner-up Master Milliner has won twice subsequently and is now rated 9lb higher, and the time was good as well - and I suppose the guessing game is whether her absence is due to her being kept back for this, or whether she has had a hiccup in the interim.

What we do know is that trainer Nicky Henderson has his horses in excellent form and we know he can ready one for this prize, having won it with Buzz last season, as well as with 11yo Caracciola in 2008 and Landing Light in 2003.

All three were dual purpose performers, and all of them gagged up. Ahorsewithnoname could easily follow suit. Ideally, she would want the ground to ride on the easy side though, so ante-post punters should bear that in mind.

Mind you, Adagio runs off a mark of just 87 here and, considering he is rated 152 over hurdles, you don't even have to have the savvy or IQ of a Prime Minister (or her Chancellor) to work out he could be thrown in here. Jockey of the moment Luke Morris has been booked.

He hasn't raced for David Pipe on the Flat, having won one from three in the French provinces for his previous handlers, so I think the market has probably adequately factored in the transition factor.

The problem for punters looking at this race is that all three of the market leaders have a lot to recommend them, so getting them all beat could be problematic.

But I can personally let them all go unbacked and untipped here at the moment, especially in the odds-on expectation of six or more places come the weekend for each-way punts against them.

Mullins' trio could challenge

A certain Willie Mullins could have something to say to those who think the above trio have the race in the bag in between them, having won the three renewals before Buzz's victory last season (from his Burning Victory, with the rest well beaten off).

He has Gibraltar, Scaramanga and Baby Zeus in here, and all are similarly priced if you shop around, though the former was nibbled at on Monday and all the 25s about him was taken (currently 23.022/1 on the Exchange).

Gibraltar is a progressive horse at the foot of the weights - he was very strong at the line when winning over 2m at Tramore last time - but the most interesting one is arguably Malcolm Denmark's Scaramanga, mainly on the grounds that he has first start for Mullins, albeit his opening salvo for him since arriving at Closutton from another top-class jumps handler in Paul Nicholls.

Revitalised Scaramanga set for another shot

He actually ran for Nicholls in this race last season, finishing well down the field, and he basically went off the boil after his Newbury success previously in July, over an extended 2m.

But we all know how Mullins can revitalise and improve, and this is a horse who was once rated 150 over hurdles (winning over 2m4f at Sandown) and 93 on the Flat after that Newbury success (which saw him beat a horse in Rodrigo Diaz who is now rated 14lb higher).

He can race off 90 here, so Mullins has plenty of back-form to work on, and the current forecast looks spot on for him, as his record suggests he wants decent ground.

He was a reserve for the Irish Cesarewitch last month and didn't get in, but presumably all is set fair for him to run here, as Jason Watson has been booked.

Watson won this race for Mullins in 2020 and 2019, guiding the owner's Great White Shark to a 3-length victory as a 9/2 favourite two years ago.

The nagging doubt about him is whether he will be best at 2m - I think Nicholls thought that trip was his optimum - but he ran well enough to 2f out before the petrol gauge went empty over 2m4f in the Ascot Stakes in June (on quick ground). Mullins' infamously testing gallops will have told him plenty about any stamina limitations or otherwise.

Vino the pick of home quartet

Four British horses are 3lb well-in here, and they are Vino Victrix, Evaluation, HMS President and Call My Bluff.

Of that quartet, Goodwood winner Vino Victrix probably appeals most at 20/1, given the dominant manner of that success last time, though this will be a whole different ball game to bossing just five rivals there

Run For Oscar is the only horse outside of the top three priced up at under 20s in the marketplace and the 6s poke (with the Sportsbook) comes here on the back of a convincing Haydock win in August and, of course, representing a certain Charles Byrnes.

He doesn't overly-excite me at the price, though he has a similar profile to the smart hurdlers in here, being rated 144 in that sphere but racing off just 90 in this handicap.

Mind you, he should relish this trip, having won over 2m6f over hurdles, and another plus for him could be a possible headgear angle.

Given that his best hurdles form has come in a visor or cheekpieces, Byrnes could have been holding back on applying them on the Flat until this race.

He hasn't worn any headgear on any of his Flat starts, but if they are stuck on here they could instigate another big leap forward. This race was immediately namechecked after Haydock, and David Egan is set to ride.

Good for more than a laugh?

If you are looking for a wilder one, then It's Good To Laugh, currently 60.059/1 on the Exchange, fits the bill.

I have a lot of time for the Jennie Candlish stable (they know the time of day when readying one and landing a punt) and their horse is undoubtedly interesting after shaping very well over 1m5f at Ayr last month, his first start for 77 days.

He has his stamina to conclusively prove in this sphere (won over 2m3f over hurdles, for what that is worth) but he is on a very fair mark - one he won off easily last season - and he has already outrun what is basically a miling pedigree.

And there was certainly a lot of promise in his two starts on the tight turns at Chester earlier in the season, when seventh (from stall 15) over an extended 2m2f in the Chester Cup and when a big eyecatcher over 2m there afterwards, a race in which he was badly hampered on the inner turning in and may have been an unlucky loser.

Scaramanga is only bet (for now)

So after all that, where do I stand?

The problem punters have if betting now is that we all know we will get six places or more on Saturday, and that the front three in the market look so solid that they will rightly continue to take out a massive chunk of the market at the weekend if they run. So there isn't that much scope for a horse to shorten that much in price (unless of course the likes of Waterville give this a swerve).

I do like It's Good To Laugh and I reckon I will have him onside by race-time, but he strikes me as the sort to still be a massive price on the Exchange come Saturday afternoon, so the appeal of recommending him now is limited.

Scaramanga is the more obvious shortener if he gets the green light, so he is the bet here and now. He is currently 27.026/1 on the Exchange, a price reflected elsewhere on the fixed-odds front, but 20/1+ (he is 20s with the Sportsbook, paying those five place) would be acceptable.

I'll settle at 20/1 for p and l purposes if he wins.

Hopefully, he at least turns up, and he gives us a run for our money. He doesn't want rain, so I was not at all happy to see to Newmarket are planning to water on Wednesday/Thursday.

Annoying, but such is the life of punters.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 220

Returns: 311.8pts

P/L: +91.8

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1