Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's Cheltenham and Doncaster trio up to 25/1

• Price is right for 25/126.00 Genietoile

• Bonttay backed to improve with step up

• Back Nayati to win cracking Donny contest

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Thankfully, only one of the eight original entries dropped out of the opening ITV race at Cheltenham on Saturday - the absentee, Storm Control, runs on Friday - and the striking feature of the seven-runner 2m handicap chase at 13:15 is how many have made the running in recent starts.

Cheltenham 13:15 - No bet

Only one of the septet, In Excelsis Deo, is a confirmed stalker, and that alone makes him interesting.

Now, it would be naïve in the extreme to think that jockeys won't have a pre-race chat about the pace in the race, and adjust accordingly, but Harry Fry's horse has much to recommend him outside of the possible tactical angle.

He is only 1lb higher than when a good third here last time and that looks generous considering the second (just half-a-length ahead of him) and fourth (a length behind him) have gone up 7lb and 4lb since.

And he came from a mile off the pace to finish third that day, having been stone-last when jumping the third-last. However, I do fully accept we can be seduced by late-closers.

So, with that in mind, the Sportsbook's price of 7/42.75 seems plenty short enough to me. I'd want maybe a point bigger to even entertain him, while fully accepting 2s is the biggest fixed-odds price out there (and that is only available in one place).

And that was a similar theme when I was looking at Saturday's eight ITV races.

I fancied a fair few, but the fixed-odds prices currently on offer meant I had a real decision to make with the Exchange markets yet to fully beef up.

Cheltenham 13:50 - No bet

It is another sobering statistic for National Hunt racing to see only 12 line up for the 130k 2m4f+ handicap at 13:50, bolstered by three runners from Ireland, with four out of the handicap.

Mind you, there were only 15 entries at the five-day stage, so I bet the course executive were relieved.

I can fully see the obvious case for the likes of Thunder Rock and Monmiral, and even my old mate Frero Banbou, who traded at 1.031/33 before taking the last home with him last time, but the pace map is interesting in this contest, too.

It led me towards Torn And Frayed, though there are negatives about him. He was running well enough when falling two out in the Paddy Power (though clearly well beaten at the time), but will he recoil from that run, his first in 658 days? And he is also 3lb out of the handicap here.

But he is still fairly treated on his 2022 form, he could well get on the front end here and dominate like he wasn't able to do last time (Do Your Job could pester him, though) on slightly better ground, and the Twister yard are still going great guns.

He is a very fair price at 18s with the Sportsbook (who are paying four places to each-way punters), and 21.020/1 on the Exchange, but I am not totally convinced by him.

I'll probably have a few quid on him, win-only, myself - so join me if you want - but, after thinking about it overnight, it's not a convincing enough case for me to put him up here as a serious bet. I can just see the argument for too many of his rivals, albeit they are at skinnier odds.

Cheltenham 14:25 - No bet

Malina Girl impressed me no end when winning here last time and the runner-up, the best-when-fresh Cloudy Glen, backed up well enough when fifth in the Coral Gold Cup.

However, the time wasn't great and she is up 11lb into far deeper waters here in the 14:25, and she doesn't have the most consistent profile.

My unruly gut feel is saying the 5s isn't a bad price (and she is 7s and bigger on the Exchange as this goes live), but the measured head is saying it isn't quite big enough. I'll split the difference and go for no bet. (I think of Kevin Pullein every time I write that. That and over 9.5 corners in a Scottish Division Two match.)

I'd be wary of a few against her, particularly the likely front-runner and novice Broadway Boy, who will relish the 3m2f trip and looks very feasibly treated off 146 on his runaway win here last time. But he is the 7/24.50 favourite.

Cheltenham 15:00 - Back Genietoile

I am finally going to unshackle my tipping and betting conservatism though, and take a flier with Genietoile at 25/126.00 with the Sportsbook in the 3m Grade 2 novices' hurdle at 15:00.

I think you have to be against Shanagh Bob at his current price of 7/42.75, for all he is very well regarded and could come into his own over this trip. I'd personally have Kempton handicap winner, 4s poke Destroytheevidence, much closer to him in the betting.

Disputing favouritism, in fact, so I couldn't put you off Kim Bailey's 5yo (and the trainer is having a great season) at all. He looks a big price at 5.39/2 on the Exchange and I have backed him there. He was a huge 11/26.50 in two places on Thursday.

But I just have an inkling we are going to see a much-improved performance from Genietoile stepping up in trip.

He shaped a lot better than it would appear first time up at Chepstow over an extended 2m3f - he got outpaced after racing prominently but plugged on again at the death - and he again looked a grinder when sticking on well enough over 2m5f in what could have been a decent novice at Ascot last time.

Now, the bare form clearly needs improving on and I needed to add a bit more strength to the case, so I went and had a look at his point win over 3m last year, after which Rebecca Curtis bought him for £92,000 12 days later.

Suffice to say he relished the trip there and the horse he beat, El Saviour, won on his hurdling debut (his first start since) at Warwick last month.

Of course, there are doubts, but everything is about price and the Sportsbook's 25/126.00 is big enough for me. Check out the Exchange price, which could well be bigger, but 25s floats my boat.

Cheltenham 15:35 - Back Bonttay

Unfortunately, Bonttay's current price of 3/14.00 in the mares' 2m4f handicap hurdle at 15:35 isn't quite as attractive on first viewing, which was a shame, as I really wanted to get with her.

I wasn't going to let the fact that she was 6s on Tuesday cloud my thinking, as we lost six entries from the five-day stage, but I was hoping for a touch bigger than 3s after re-assessing the race on Thursday morning before the revised prices appeared.

The 4s in the marketplace early on Thursday was promptly taken, and that was the kind of mark I was looking for.

But then I had a re-think overnight (I write my weekend column on Thursdays, and then sit on it until the following day whenever possible to ensure I don't miss anything obvious).

There is no doubt in my mind that this smart bumper horse (two wins here and a good second to Queen's Gamble in Listed company) remains well treated despite going up 13lb for wins at Kelso (landing a big punt) and Hereford over 2m.

The key to her chance here, though, is the prospect of stepping up to 2m4f for the first time looking highly likely to bring about improvement, as she has always looked more of a stayer on run-style and she is by Westerner out of a stoutly-bred mare who won over 2m6f at Sandown.

I may be getting bogged down by price sensitivities, yet again, but I wanted 4s, and it is not as if this 10-runner race doesn't have a fair bit of depth.

But then I asked myself, what price would I lay her at? And the answer was probably no bigger than 2s, as I think she wins this more than one in three times.

Back her at 3/14.00 with the Sportsbook, and/or on the Exchange (where she is currently [4.4]).

An oversight, I should have said the ground is soft at Cheltenham, though bizarrely the going stick readings have got deeper in spite of a dry week from Wednesday onwards.

Doncaster 14:05 - No bet

It is better still at Doncaster, where it is basically good to soft.

The 2m3f handicap hurdle at 14:05 has been scythed down from 24 at the five-day stage to just nine, but nothing much takes my eye there, especially as the Sportsbook are ducking Deeper Blue at 11/26.50, with much bigger available elsewhere. So I couldn't tip him.

Actually, he has just been pushed out to 13/27.50 just before this went live.

I can see why the odds-compilers want to keep him onside as the Plumpton run was rather obvious, but he is clearly a fragile horse. For what it is worth, I've had a small nibble at 7s on the lightly-traded Exchange (he is 8s in a place elsewhere).

Doncaster 14:40 - Back Nayati

The 2m handicap hurdle at 14:40 is an absolute cracker, one deserving of at least its 50k status, and it is fiercely competitive.

Nayati is probably the least sexy of the dozen on show, as a 9yo - he was actually third in this race in 2019 - but he is certainly a well handicapped one off 130 after what you may generously call a gentle introduction under Brian Hughes on his return at Huntingdon last month. And I do acknowledge the horse has flattered to deceive in the past.

However, if I was the handicapper, I'd have ignored the run - and if I was a steward, I'd have certainly asked about it - but he got dropped 2lb for it.

That puts him on a mark 2lb lower than when winning well under Hughes at Musselburgh on New Year's Day and he is a big runner on that showing.

Another plus point is the improved recent form of the Donald McCain yard. He is five from 19 in December, having previously been in pretty woeful form in October (three per cent strike rate) and November (nine per cent).

Hopefully, Nayati's performance can see a similar uplift.

I'd say he will be weak in the market here, given his profile, but I'd be happy to back him win-only at 19.018/1 or more on the Exchange. I'd expect plenty bigger though. As with all exchange bets though, I'll settle at Betfair SP. The Sportsbook are paying 18s, four places, and that is obviously very acceptable.

The theme of the day continued with Whistleinthedark being put in at 5s with the Sportsbook in the 3m handicap chase, ducking him completely. That mob have clearly been copying my homework.

I think the Sportsbook are right, (to go shortest about the horse, that is), but that doesn't enable me to tip him there, unfortunately.

He found it all happening a bit too quickly over 2m4f in the Paddy Power but the step up to 3m really should suit him on pedigree, being a brother to a winner over the trip. His dam was stamina-laden, being related to Scottish National runner-up Shotgun Willy and Welsh National winner Mini Sensation.

Progressive on decent ground last season, I can really see him running a big race here and I will be backing it up with hard cash if the price is right. And that would probably be 7s or bigger on the exchange, which isn't quite deep enough to tip into at the moment.

I may do an update to this column if and when his price is right, especially as the likes of Torn And Frayed and Malina Girl may also re-enter the equation.

Until then, good luck.

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Read Paul Nicholls: Class horse Monmiral has big chance in December Gold Cup