ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's best bets at Beverley and Haydock

Betfair Ambassador Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has two fresh bets for Saturday's ITV Racing at Beverley and Haydock

Beverley and Haydock are the meetings featured on ITV Racing on Saturday, and our resident tipster Tony Calvin has analysed all seven contests before landing on two fresh bets...

  • 33/134.00 ante-post bet still stands but 20s poke not confirmed

  • Outsider Yoshimi worth chancing E/W with 5 places up for grabs

  • Front-running Struth might take some catching


Haydock Superboost

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An apology first up, as one of the two weekend selections from Tuesday, 20s chance Euchen Glen, wasn't confirmed for Haydock - I feared the worst when the jocked-up Saffie Osborne's name disappeared from next to his name early on Thursday morning - but unfortunately that is part and parcel of ante-post betting.

But, I'm genuinely sorry, all the same.

It is particularly disappointing as his race has cut up to just nine runners - the 3s ante-post favourite La Yakel was another of nine no-shows - and looks very winnable.

Perhaps it was the drying ground that prompted Jim Goldie to have a re-think, even though the horse operates well on a decent surface.

It is currently good to firm at Haydock and the forecast suggests very little rain is coming (the forecast has improved from Wednesday), so perhaps firm (that rare beast) will creep into the description by Saturday afternoon.

Unless they water. Which now seems likely.

Beverley "will water if necessary". They are currently good, good to firm in places, with a dry forecast, so I say it is heavy odds-on they will. However, they haven't updated on Friday morning yet, as this piece goes live.

I'd prefer it if they didn't but you can see why they probably will, as there is always a balance of doing the right thing by punters (that is, letting nature run its course) and attempting to maximise field sizes by dint of irrigation.

As long as they tell us how much they put on and where they have watered - you don't want golden highways suddenly appearing, especially at a potentially draw-bias course like Beverley - then I guess that's fine.


Beverley - 14:05: Sands Of Dubai advised Antepost

We may as well start with our remaining ante-post runner, 33s poke Sands Of Dubai, but from a selfish point of view I was very disappointed to see her race hold up remarkably well in terms of numbers, and then clock her draw in 13.

Only three of the 18 five-entries didn't confirm for the Hilary Needler at 14:05, so I strongly suspect Sands Of Dubai will now hit 33s+ on the exchange win-only on the day.

Especially, as I was hoping for a rather better draw than 13 of 15, as I said above. Actually, if they want to over-water the far rail, then be my guest. And I suppose a wide draw is not the barrier to success it may have once been here in the past.

I'll readily admit that I have made stronger cases then I did for her earlier in the week, but I guess that is why she was her price.

If anything, it was an owner-driven punt. And what I said then clearly stands now, so I'll pretty much repeat it below, for all the opposition is far deeper, numerically at least, than I was expecting.

Richard Fahey - whose form figures since June 3rd read an exceptional 71111112711131362529 going into Friday's racing - won this race for the owners with Kodyanna in 2018, and he also saddled the third, a debutante, for them in 2019.

In addition, the owners were responsible for a Robert Cowell-trained 80/181.00 fifth in 2022, as well as a 33/134.00 poke who admittedly beat only one home last year.

So those owners, The Cool Silk Partnership, clearly like this race and it is fair to say that Sands Of Dubai shaped a little bit better than the bare form on her debut at Thirsk, travelling well until dropping away in the final furlong or so, when just over 6 lengths seventh to Maw Lam and Mademoiselle, who re-oppose here.

She also got one particularly hefty bump early on, though I wouldn't be using that as any kind of an excuse. Fahey seemed very disappointed with the run by all accounts.

However, she was a 13/27.50 to 10/111.00 drifter on the show, going off at a Betfair SP of 14.5, so maybe little was presumably expected of her there, as much as the trainer is suggesting otherwise.

Whether that late ebbing away was a lack of conditioning, or ability, who knows, but it wouldn't surprise me if she stepped up massively on that initial effort. And juveniles clearly tend to make their biggest leap from first to second start.

I won't press up, as the Sportsbook's 16s on the low side - that draw is probably not good news, for all what I said earlier, and that there has been no massive draw bias in this race in recent years, with the 2021 winner being housed widest of all, and Liberty Beach was berthed eight of eight when obliging in 2019 - but hopefully I hit upon a relatively unorthodox angle, and profitable, earlier in the week.

All nine of the winners in here are unpenalised (penalties only kick in at Listed level and above), and the two newcomers get 3lb, so dangers are everywhere you look, but the form horses do not set a bar that much above an 80-rated level.

Over Spiced and Powerful Lady, drawn next to each other in four and five, were immediately backed at 14s and 16s with the Sportsbook (paying four places) as soon as they went up with prices late on Thursday morning, as was Nad Alshiba Snow at a bizarrely big opening 33s (a price that went from 33s to 25 to 18s to 14s within half an hour or so; she is now 11s and that is coming under pressure).

That said, basically any bold type on Oddschecker was picked off on Thursday morning.


Beverley - 14:40: No Bet

Just the six runners in another 2yo race at 14:40, and a bold show from Nad Alshiba Snow will be a boost for Moving Force, who beat her by a length here on their debuts, with Rajetariat a neck behind in third.

Newcomer Shareholder has been put in as the 7/42.75 favourite and presumably the Wathan Racing-owned 2yo - now, wouldn't you like to be involved with that outfit, from an advisory, commission, stand-point, as they go on their current spending spree - has been showing a bit at home.

Or, rather on the track over 2f, as he cost an eye-watering 460,000 euros at the Arqana breeze-ups last month.

Some are getting rich here in the short term. And others poorer in the long run.

Trainers have been keen to win first up with horses for this owner, for obvious reasons - and Karl Burke saddled a 2yo newcomer to win for them at Nottingham on Thursday - and I should also mention he gets 7lb from Moving Force, as that one carries a 4lb penalty and unraced horses get a 3lb allowance here.

I'd always side with the known over the unknown, though - in this case Moving Force at around 11/43.75 on the exchange - but there is no pressing need to have a bet in here.


Beverley - 15:15: Back Yoshimi E/W

With a maximum field of 16 in the 7f96yd handicap at 15:15, expect plenty of trouble in running, and bags of it.

Everything that Michael Herrington runs of late has to be respected, and his Yoshimi is one of four pace angles I have in the race - see below - but he has been drawn 16 of 16.

Granted, he is 33s as result (and the Sportsbook are paying five places here) but he is highly likely to be in a world of pain, unless he flies out of the gates.

The other possible pace angles are in two (On The River), five (Park Street) and seven (Golden Sands) but I kept on coming back to Yoshimi at the price, so I am sticking him up here at 33s each way, five places, to small stakes.

As I said Herrington continues in red-hot form (five winners in the past fortnight, including a 40s poke), and if Yoshimi can get even a half-decent pitch from the stalls then we could be in business.

He was second on his only previous start at the track, he is down a very winnable mark of 69 (he won at Leicester last year off 68), he will love the ground (all five of his turf wins have come on good or quicker), and, hopefully significantly, the cheekpieces are back on for the first time this season.

His two wins last year came in that headgear, and the pieces were not on for his two starts this term, for which he came down 3lb.

Everything is about price and the 33s will do for me, even if the 40s was snapped up on Thursday afternoon (there is still some 40s in one place).

One slight doubt is that Harrison Shaw hasn't ridden the horse before, and presumably connections were struggling to find a jockey, as Shaw was only confirmed for the ride just before the 1pm deadline on Thursday. But I am sure he will have done his homework on the horse, and he is two from 12 for the trainer.

And you never know they may decide to run him a bit more chilly from his draw and come wide to get a clear, uninterrupted run.

Eligible, who got no run at York last time and 25s chance Park Street were others to note, but the former is drawn 15 and is only 15/28.50, unsurprisingly as no-one missed his troubled run last time.


Haydock - 13:50: No Bet

Live In The Dream has been installed as the 10/111.91 favourite by the Sportsbook for the Listed 5f sprint at 13:50 at Haydock, and I don't have too much issue with that, for all he is a bit bigger elsewhere (including on the exchange) and Democracy Dilemma and Tees Spirit could put it to him on the front end.

Unpenalised for his Nunthorpe win on August 25 last year (penalties only kicked in after August 31), he ran well above market expectations on unfavourable testing ground here on his return, and he is rightfully short in the market here.

Believing is a fair 5s poke each way IF all eight run, as she is a player on her Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup third here, even if all her best form has come over 6f and I am not inclined to have a bet.

It would be just like Korker in first-time cheekpieces to cause a mini-shock, coming late off a strong pace, but some races are simply best watched. This is one, especially as one non-runner spoils the possible each way gigs.


Haydock - 14:25: Back Struth

Jamie Spencer couldn't do the weight on the two David Simcock horses in the 1m3f175yd handicap at 14:25, so that isn't a particular pointer to his mount Iron Lion, even though that one has fair claims on his Doncaster win last month.

Divina Grace looks the solid one in here at 9/25.50 after her good comeback run at Goodwood but a bet came at me from the most unlikely of angles.

There is competition for the lead here but I suspect Struth will win it and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he suddenly bounced back to form and won this just a week after finishing well beaten at Epsom last Saturday.

He may have gone too hard there, having curled up tamely after being headed at the 2f pole, and certainly that race favoured the closers and not those who raced prominently (the other horse that forced it with Struth came last).

The stable's simple MO is to just keep on running them and see what comes out of the other end - it is what it is - and he did run well when third here off a 1lb higher mark last July. He'd go very close here if reproducing that effort.

He also backed up very well after that run when third at Ascot, just a week later - today's jockey Richard Kingscote rode him on both occasions and is on board for the first time since here - and maybe the removal of the cheekpieces could perk him up a bit (he goes perfectly well when headgear-less).

Now, I wouldn't be a particular fan of the stable (though at least they had three winners on Thursday, and I hope their shorter-priced stablemate Knightswood doesn't pester him on the front end) but I thought the Sportsbook's 10/111.00 was fair enough, all doubts incorporated.

He was 12s there before being trimmed in on Thursday afternoon but, as with Yoshimi, that cut isn't enough to deter me. I think he is a fair bet, to small stakes, at that price.

His two wins have come in eight-runner races, and maybe bossing a smaller field will be more his bag here.

Back him at 10s with the Sportsbook, or at 11.010/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is currently 12.011/1 on the latter as this goes live.

If you go down the latter route, which I will, then you may want to consider putting in an-running lay at around the 2/13.00 mark.

I normally slot one in at 3.052/1 myself if I am hedging around that kind of price on what I consider to be a likely front-runner; it's just habit, not scientific.

I should point out he is 12s (in six places on the Oddschecker grid) and 11s elsewhere, so, like I always say, do what you have to do. I will always highlight this, as you have to treat readers like adults.


Haydock - 15:00: No Bet

The 14-runner fillies 1m3f175yd Group 3 at 15:00 is as tricky as it gets and little wonder it is 6/17.00 the field if you shop around.

I couldn't see any pace angle into the race (see below) or indeed a great deal to differentiate any of them on form, though, because the race is run in memory of his late father-in-law Lester Piggott, I am sure many want to take a chance of William Haggas' Sea Theme, a 5/16.00 chance with the Sportsbook (paying four places).

Indeed, some already have, as he has already shortened up from 15/28.50 with the Sportsbook.

Now, just because Haggas wants to win this - and he has done for the past two years, and back in 2019, too - doesn't mean he will, and maybe there is a sense of this angle being fully factored into Sea Theme's current price.

And it is not as if Haggas is firing on all cylinders, as he is nowhere near his usual high strike-rate in 2024, or in recent weeks.

She certainly has a shot at this on her York Listed race win last August - the second and third both went on to win in that grade, too - before she disappointed on her final start at Newmarket but I just think her odds are now pretty much what it should be, for all she is 6s in a couple of places. I can fully see the case for her, but the price just isn't there anymore.

Ed Walker continues in great form and his Scenic could be the one if you wanted an each-way bet on an outsider, as she looked an improved model at Kempton, for all she has a lot more to find here. She opened at 40s, but is now 33s.


Haydock - 15:35: No Bet

The 12-runner 7f Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at 15:35 is not a great deal easier to solve, with six horses trading at 7/18.00 or less with the Sportsbook.

Lockinge third Witch Hunter was initially vying for favouritism with Noble Dynasty - the latter is now the clear favourite at 4s - and this late closer could have the race to suit with five forward-goers in here. Getting a run from trap one may not be so easy, but I thought he was a fair price at the current 7.06/1 on the exchange.

I could run you through the rest of the field but I don't see the point to be honest with you, as I can't see a bet, at the current prices and the each-way terms on offer.

Just the two fresh bets then, but I make no apologies for being selective.

If the bets aren't there, never force it. There is always tomorrow in racing; well, 362 days a year, anyway. The sport does have three days off.

Go well.


GROUND AND WEATHER

Haydock: Good to firm (good in places on the round course); 1mm Friday, 2mm Saturday

Beverley: Good, good to firm in places. (Dry Friday; 1mm Saturday). The course "will water if necessary". BHA site has not yet been updated on Friday morning as this column goes live.


BALLOTED OUT: N/A


FIRST TIME HEADGEAR

Karl Burke cheekpieces 15-177 (since 2016)

Charles Hills blinkers 8-75


PACE MAPS

1.50pm Haydock: Democracy Dilemma, Live In The Dream, Tees Spirit

2.05pm Beverley (not a lot of evidence): Aviation Time, Mademoiselle, Powerful Lady (prom), Storm Call (prom), Brazilian Belle (prom)

2.25pm Haydock: Struth, Maghlaak (couple of other prominent racers in here like Divina Grace and Knightswood)

2.40pm Beverley (not a lot of evidence): Jm Jhingree, Regal Gem, Rajetariat

3pm Haydock: Madame Ambassador, Miss Cantik, Night Sparkle, Sapphire Seas, Scenic, Wynter Wildes

3.15pm Beverley: On The River, Golden Sands, Park Street?, Yoshimi

3.35pm Haydock: Flight Plan, Noble Dynasty, Pogo, Point Lynas, Quinault


TRAINER FORM - for all with entries in Saturday's ITV races at Haydock and Beverley (does not include Friday's results, but all recent runners assessed individually):

Excellent: Richard Fahey (albeit only from June 3, but flying in first part of this week), Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood (small sample), Michael Herrington, Ed Walker

Good: George Boughey, Adam Nichol (just one runner but 80-1 second), Jack Channon, Eve Johnson Houghton, Roy Bowring. Philip McBride (one recent runner, one winner), Charlie Appleby, David Menuisier, Karl Burke, Miss Natalia Lupini, John and Sean Quinn, James Fanshawe, Ralph Beckett

Fair: Michael Dods, Robert Cowell, Adam West, Adrian Nicholls, John And Thady Gosden, Jessie Harrington (good in recent days), Ed Bethell, Dylan Cunha, Tina Jackson, Ruth Carr (only two winners but a lot have been going well at prices, including a 12-1 scorer on Thursday), Hilal Kobeissi (two runners in 2024 but one was a 5-1 third), Tom Clover, Harriet Bethell (very few runners), Richard Spencer (very few runners), Rae Guest, Andrew Balding, Charlie Fellowes (though winnerless, so poor in that respect), David O'Meara, Amy Murphy, Richard Hannon, Roger Fell and Sean Murray (better than the bare stats suggests), Julie Camacho, Charles Hills, Hughie Morrison, Tim Easterby (18-1 winner on Thursday), Charlie Johnston (three winners on Thursday)

Moderate: William Haggas (for him, anyway), Stuart Williams (an even more welcome winner on Thursday, so maybe the tide has turned), George Scott (arguably more fair), Craig Lidster, Michael and David Easterby, David Simcock, Richard Hughes, Mick Appleby, Brian Ellison (though a couple beaten in photos in recent days), Kevin Philippart De Foy


Now read Ryan Moore on his four Saturday rides here.


Recommended bets

PROFIT AND LOSS

2024 Flat season (day-of-race; Apr 26 onwards):

STAKED:  57
RETURN: 106.55
P AND L: +49.55
ANTE-POST: -4

2023-24 NH season:

STAKED: 127
RETURN: 143.4
P/L:    +16.4

April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season:

STAKED:  202
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L:  -33.1

March 26 2022 -April 15 2023:

Staked: 436
Returns: 643.6
P/L: +207.6

April 14 2021 to March 25 2022:

P/L: + 183.1

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