Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin takes 20/1 flier on Daly Tiger

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
TC is backing two at Wetherby and two at Ascot on Saturday

Tony Calvin finds two to back at Ascot on Saturday to go with his antepost pair of bets at Wetherby...

  • TC has four tips for Saturday
  • Happy with antepost pair at Wetherby
  • Says Highway One O Two's stamina could be crucial
  • Takes a 20/1 flier on Daly Tiger in the 14:40

All the class acts have stood their ground for Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase at 15:35, but unfortunately three withdrawals from the 10 five-day entries - Good Boy Bobby, Dashel Drasher and Some Chaos - have reduced the day-of-race numbers to just seven.

That's not helpful, as I was very keen to take on the top two in the market, old foes Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor, with an each-way recommendation and there is obviously now plenty of fluff on the cue ball (or whatever it is that causes them to jump) as regards that potential strike.

Charlie Hall Chase closer than betting suggests

Now, it is just a matter of whether I want to play win-only against the market leaders, I guess.

I have nothing against either of last year's Grade 1-winning staying novices, bar their prices, and maybe they won't be fully wound up here with bigger targets down the line.

I suspect they won't be coming here half-cocked. But both like to go forward, as do four of their five rivals, so this could set up well for Win My Wings. This could be tactical then, to add another layer of doubt to proceedings.

Eldorado Allen could still challenge fancied pair

The one who I would have tipped against them ante-post on Tuesday was Eldorado Allen, but I had to withdraw from that engagement after his price was cut from 8 to 5s before I filed.

The one nagging doubt I had about him was the possibility of the ground turning testing, as I am not sold on his stamina over 3m, and there is a possibility we could be looking at borderline soft come race-time on Saturday afternoon.

However, saying that, soft isn't guaranteed by any means, as the forecasts vary. It is currently good to soft (good in places) and apparently some thought it was very quick up the straight at the last meeting, so perhaps it will be fine for Eldorado Allen to put it up to the front pair.

His record certainly suggests he will be fully tuned up here - his seasonal reappearance form figures for the Tizzards read 1211 - and he has only 2lb to find with the market leaders at these weights.

That Newbury defeat of Royale Pagaille in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury may have earned him a 6lb penalty here but it also reads very well in the context of this race, allied to that record when fresh.

But I can probably let him go unbacked and untipped now, so no bet here.

Don't rule out an upset

There could well be an upset though, as this is more close-knit from a strict ratings point of view than the betting would have you believe.

I wouldn't totally rule out the rag, the race-fit Paint The Dream, at 40/1+ on the Betfair Exchange and Secret Investor would also be very big at 14/1+ if it is decent ground.

I may simply lay both Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor and have the field running for me at odds-against.

Happy with antepost bets

Having tipped Thomas Darby and Proschema ante-post (at 10s and 7s respectively), I was disappointed to see Sporting John declared for the bet365 hurdle at 15:00 and not heading to Ascot for a handicap chase, but I am happy enough with both those positions without the need for a press-up at this stage.

The drier the better for Proschema, who shaped well over an inadequate 2m3f in the Silver Trophy on his return.

He was second in this race on good to soft last season, a race in which his jockey was perhaps over-confident - he was 7/1 pre-race but hit 6/4 in running despite never getting within two lengths of the winner at any stage, after being delivered approaching the last - and I think there is untapped potential in him over this trip.

I may back him again at 7/2 or bigger (that being my guide price) if it remains good to soft (or better) but I am going to wait until the day to see what the weather brings.

Thomas Darby is a similar price on the Betfair Exchange to when I tipped him at 10s fixed-odds on Tuesday, and that is easy to understand given Sporting John has been confirmed for the race, as well the fact that he has a 6lb penalty for his Grade 2 Newbury success last November and only finished fourth to Indefatigable and Proschema in this race last season.

However, I am certainly not waving the white flag as to his winning chance as he is bang up there on the ratings, even with that 6lb burden, and he has gone well fresh in the past. And maybe a wind op since we last saw him has helped him, too.

See The Sea in with a shot

I don't have a betting opinion in the mares' hurdle at 14:25 as the form horses, last year's winner Molly Ollys Wishes and Martello Sky, unbeaten on her seasonal reappearances, rightly dominate the market.

However, I could make half a case for the race-fit See The Sea getting weight, as she may well see off Molly Ollys Wishes for the lead here - more than half in fact, especially at the 14s she was in a place on Thursday morning - and she could just get these at it if she does.

She ran okay at Kempton last time and doesn't need the top two to run that far below form to be in with a shot here. But I will just about resist a bet, as I imagine she will be single figures.

The layers were understandably slow in coming forward with prices for the opening novices' hurdle at 13:50, a race which features a whole host of unexposed and interesting contenders.

None more so perhaps than Joe Dadancer, who fell at the last when clear in his only point back in February.

He represents the Ben Pauling yard that won this race in 2018 and 2017 - he is also owned by The Megsons, of Harry Dunlop's Poly Pott fame - and the horse who finished a 31-length third in that point subsequently changed hands for 60k and gagged up by 15 lengths at Kelso last week.

However, he has not been missed in the market (first firm up made him a 6s poke) and we are dealing with a lot of unknowns here - Autumn Return's chance is more obvious after her Market Rasen win in a fair time, but she did pick a 6lb penalty for that - so over to Ascot.

Trio can trouble Goshen in Ascot opener

The opening novices' race at 13:30 has cut up from 13 to just four runners, and three of these are out of the handicap due to Goshen's presence in a race which the bottom weight is set to carry a minimum of 10st 13lb for some reason. Yes, I know it's a limited handicap, but still.

So Goshen, whose stable has won this race twice in recent years and looks to be the likely pacesetter, takes on horses ranging from 3lb to 6lb out of the handicap.

However, he is not the kind of horse I want to be backing at short odds on his chasing debut - actually, I can't think of one I would - and his three rivals are all very promising in their own right, especially Martin Pipe runner-up Cobblers Dream. No bet.

Highway One O Two's stamina could be crucial

I will have a punt in the 1m7f154yd handicap hurdle at 14:05 though, and not the horse I thought I was going to back when I started looking.

Broomfield Burg is undoubtedly interesting at 6/1 given he started an 11/4 poke off a 4lb higher mark in the Betfair Hurdle and ran a solid race in the Silver Trophy on his return. The downside to him is that the Nicky Henderson yard is very quiet; several of the trainer's horses are running moderately and the only recent winner going into Thursday's racing was a 2/9 chance.

I am going with Highway One O Two, and hope there is enough pace on here (he himself is one of possibly five forward-goers ) to bring his 2m5f stamina into play.

He could finish only fifth in this race last season, but that was a fair renewal, and they have ditched the hood on him after his agonizing defeat at Fontwell last time, a race in which he stopped to a walk after trading at 1.01 and got chinned late on. To add insult to injury he went up 3lb for it.

But his good second in the Lanzarote over 2m5f came without headgear, and he has been rated higher than his revised mark of 135 in the past - he was 145 over hurdles after his Grade 2 Dovecote win - and hopefully a prominent ride in a well-run race will see him at his best. Back him at 11.010/1 or bigger.

Back Highway One O Two 14:05 Ascot @

11.0

The 9s with the Betfair Sportsbook is obviously acceptable too if you want to get filled straight away. The Chris Gordon yard are in fair nick and had another winner at Worcester on Thursday, at 8/1.

The Ascot forecast for Saturday is not clear (one says 5mm of rain, another next to nothing), but he is ground-versatile, and any significant rain will bring his stamina to the fore.

Take your chances on risky proposition

We have the last three winners of the race set to line up in the 2m1f handicap chase at 14:40 - Monsieur Lecoq, Amoola Gold and Diego Du Charmil - and you can make a case for all three, as well as the rest of the 10-strong field, in truth, not least my old buddy (and the already nibbled-at) Frero Banbou.

But I am going to take a flier on perhaps the riskiest proposition in Daly Tiger at 21.020/1 or bigger. He is 20s with the Betfair Sportsbook, too.

He could end up twice that guide price if this is a pipe-opener (and he was entered in a handicap hurdle as well at the five-day stage, which suggests it could be) and they miss the rain, but I'll take my chance.

Do not chase him down to any lower than 20s, as I imagine you will get 25/1+ once the exchange market beefs up.

Back Daly Tiger 14:40 Ascot @

21.0

Confidence would obviously increase if Ascot got plenty of rain (though he has won on good), as he was a very smart horse on his day in Ireland, winning a valuable Fairyhouse 2m1f handicap chase in January 2021 and finishing second to Energumene in the Hilly Way first time out last season.

Ascot RAIN.jpg

He was bought for £40,000 last month by current trainer Laura Morgan out of Noel Meade's yard. I have a lot of time for Morgan as 22 wins at a 22% strike rate this term demands.

The fact that the new owners are called the "Twist Your Arm Syndicate" suggests it was a leap-of -faith purchase, but if Morgan has sweetened him up in the last seven weeks then a mark of 150 is highly exploitable.

He was rated 157 in Ireland after that Fairyhouse win, which equates to 160+ in real terms with the usual UK add-on.

I thought the 2m7f180yd handicap chase at 15:15 was a very tricky puzzle to solve.

I would agree that Scottish National third Major Dundee is the right favourite at around 9/2 on the Betfair Exchange as he looks one of those typical Trevor Hemmings' relative youngsters (he is seven) who will improve with age.

And, at the other end of the spectrum who is to say that the course favourite Regal Encore, winner of this race first time up in 2020, can't be a factor here at the age of 14 off his lowest ever chase mark of 136?

However, I am happy to leave alone, all things considered.

Good luck, all.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 243
Returns: 333.4pts
P/L: +90.6

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1

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