Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says Lyndon B is a very good 13/2 bet

• Encouraging forecast for 14/115.00 antepost pick

• Lyndon B can win at Sandown again

• 6/17.00 Beverley bet loves quick ground

The rainfall forecast for Sandown has been all over the place this week, so I was going to wait until Friday morning to send my column live and see what the weather did for the next 12 hours or so.

But I checked five weather sites at 3pm on Thursday afternoon, and the most rain I can see landing on any of those at Sandown before Saturday is just over 3mm, so I am going to take my chances now.

Not least because I forgot I had a doctor's appointment at 9am on Friday morning.

It could backfire, I know, as we are all aware about the accuracy of forecasts but here goes.

Sandown going is good for Potapova

The current Sandown going is good to firm (good in paces) and it would be great news if it stayed that way for my 14/1 win-only ante-post selection Potapova in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at 14:25. Good ground would be fine.

We lost 11 from the five-day stage, so that has a fair bearing on the fact that she is just 13/27.50 now - she was backed into 8/19.00 across the board on Tuesday morning - but the case I made for her earlier in the week obviously stands.

It will clearly be a huge positive if no substantial rains hits Sandown as all her best form has come on good ground, and a reproduction of her 1 ½ length defeat of Grande Dame in this race last year must see her go close. The ratings of the first six home that day suggest it was a better renewal than this.

Indeed, even the form of her Royal Ascot run in Group 2 company last time may even be good enough.

And, given that she likes to come from off the pace - she was last turning in last season - a wide draw in eight doesn't bother me at all.

I wouldn't be inclined to press up on her at her current odds though, as she can throw in the odd stinker. I would be particularly wary of impressive Haydock scorer Heredia, as she has a powerful turn of foot on her day - she opened up at 5/16.00 in places on Thursday and I'd probably have her as the slight favourite - and you have to respect the 3yos, too.

Indeed, the unbeaten Nibras Angel, the lowest-rated in the field, is completely unexposed and her trainer was in rather bullish form after her Thirsk win last time, talking in terms of the Group 1 Sun Chariot for her, for all that may be rather pie in the sky chat for one rated just 91.

One firm stuck their neck out on her at 28/129.00 on Thursday, and were promptly accommodated all the way into the now general price of 14/115.00, so some people have the faith.

Sandown - 13:50: Back Lyndon B

The Betfair Sportsbook offer four places on the opening 11-runner 7f handicap at 13:50, which is obviously very welcome given the field size.

There is method in their generosity though, as it is a very tricky race.

One of the Sportsbook odds-compilers has wanted to keep Amber Island onside all week, as they made her just 7/24.50 on Tuesday when she was 10/111.00 elsewhere. They opened their day-of-race book with her as their 3/14.00 favourite.

I can see the case for her, but not at those odds, and I'd probably have Tough Enough as my marginal favourite as he clearly relished the step up to this trip for the first time when scoring over course and distance last time.

The early 9/25.50 was taken but it has to be said that was a weak 0-85 and he is up 4lb into a tougher handicap.

Alpha Capture is again winking me at double figures after running a little better at Newbury and having been dropped another 3lb for it - that is a 18lb landslide of a fall in the weights after just just four starts this season - but whether 7f on a stiff track on likely quick ground is his bag, I am not so sure.

Indemnify will have his supporters after his "eyecatcher" run here last time but he just looks an awkward sort to me and he hardly flew once seeing daylight late on there, and I can see King Cabo (cut six points into 14/115.00 on Thursday) going well from the front.

I finally landed on Lyndon B. Although he has form on easy ground, all of his best efforts have come on good or quicker going and he looks set to get that here on a track on which he has won over twice (over 1m) and also run well in defeat.

And this is his fourth run of the campaign, which may be important.

He shaped well on fast ground on his first two starts this season (Timeform made it much faster than the official description of good on both occasions), particularly when a close fifth when racing down the possibly unfavoured middle at Newbury in June, and well enough on good to soft at Newmarket last time.

He now finds himself racing off a mark of 85, 2lb lower than when a neck second of 19 at Newbury last September, form which worked out well.

And this 7yo tends to need to a few runs to get him straight.

He won fourth time out in 2019 and 2021 (his early winter campaign in Dubai in 2020 was a write-off) and he was beaten only a short-head on that very start in 2022 before winning here next time.

I'd prefer it if Danny Muscutt steers the coward's wide path late on, as I don't want to die wondering if and when he meets all kinds of trouble going down the inside from his draw in three. But I think he is a very good bet at 13/27.50 each-way, four places.

For the sake of openness, that is actually the shortest price in the marketplace - he is 9/110.00 and 8/19.00 in many places - so obviously get filled as and where you see fit - but I'd back him at 5/16.00 each-way with the extra place, so 13/27.50 is a very fair price in its own right.

Sandown - 15:00: No bet

I couldn't see much pace at all at 1m2f handicap at 15:00 - maybe Dashing Roger or Great Max but nothing definite on the likely ground - so the opportunity is there for a jockey to use their initiative.

I bet a few punters were slightly annoyed that Finest Leader wasn't confirmed for the race on Thursday in a bid to complete a four-timer (there is a common theme of short-priced ante-post horses not showing up this weekend) and Lord Protector, Eagles Way and Gaassee are vying for favouritism in his absence.

In fact, they are currently 11/26.50 co-favourites of three.

I better start making my copy snappier as the word count is already looking far too punchy, so to be blunt, I couldn't see anything that I particularly wanted to back at the current odds.

Stay Well probably came closest at 9/110.00, as he was done no favours by Gallant Lion forcing him across the track at Windsor last time, but his price of was nothing more than fair.

I like Gaassee stepping down to 1m2f - he hasn't been getting home over further recently - but he was pulled out due to the quick ground at York on Saturday and connections may decide the same here if it stays mainly dry.

I have no betting opinion in the Solario Stakes at 15:38 but I can fully see the case for Mortlake, an impressive winner in a good time on quick ground at Leicester last time.

You'll rarely see a horse improve so much for his debut, as he looked properly useless first time up on admittedly soft going at Salisbury, and he may bid to make all here.

Beverley - 14:05: Back Fulfilled

It is good (good to firm in places) at Beverley, with minimal rain due (maybe 3.5mm in the next 48 hours), and we lost the ante-post favourite, Sea King, from the opening 1m4f handicap at 14:05 at the overnight stage.

Sir Mark Prescott relies solely on 8/19.00 chance Omniscient and I imagine plenty will take that as a tip in itself.

However, he has not kicked on from a decent run in the Northumberland Plate and he ran pretty woefully when made favourite at Sandown last time.

I do think there is a bet in the race though, and it is just a matter of whether I decide to go each way with the dicey dead-eight, or win-only.

It could be that any quickening ground claims a non-runner here, such as Dancing In Paris or Dark Jedi (though the latter has one very good piece of form on good to firm), so I am going win-only with Fulfilled at 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook.

Even though he is 1lb out of the weights here (due to 8st 11lb being the minimum for older horses for some reason), I reckon I can make a good case for him being favourite here.

So I will.

He has never run a bad race since going handicapping, not being beaten four lengths in any of his nine starts after getting a mark, and I reckon he could easily be coming here on a five-timer this season under different circumstances.

He has won on fast ground at Ripon and Lingfield, and he could have been given a better ride when a 1 ¼ length fourth here in June (though that may be a touch harsh on today's pilot Hayley Turner). Furthermore, he probably should have won with an untroubled, uninterrupted run over an extended 1m3f at Windsor last time.

He loves quick ground, he has course form, he is improving and I think he has the potential to rate a fair bit higher than his effective mark of 82 here.

Not many off his rivals scare me that much, and 6/17.00 looks very attractive. He could even be half that price come the off. He rates a good bet at 4/15.00 or above to me, and he is a general 6/17.00 and 11/26.50 chance across the board, with 9/25.50 the lowest price on offer as this column goes live.

Beverley - 14:40: No bet

Talking of high-profile no-shows, we also lost the 3/14.00 ante-post jolly at 10am on Thursday when Equilateral wasn't confirmed for the Beverley Bullet at 14:40 but, surprisingly, his main market rival Silky Wilkie was, despite holding an engagement at Newcastle on Thursday night.

So whether he rocks up again here less than 41 hours later is anyone's guess. There will be a sizeable Rule 4 if he doesn't as he is 11/43.75 with the Sportsbook.

He hasn't backed up again this quickly in the past but he is looks to be a hardy sort who takes his racing well - he held his form very well when racing four times in 22 days last year - so I guess we have to assume he is an intended runner.

I don't have a strong betting stance, either way, to be honest.

Chester - 13:35: No bet

It is currently good to soft at Chester and the weather outlook is largely dry after possibly up to 6mm on Thursday evening. ITV added the opening 7f127yd handicap at 13:35 to their live schedule on Thursday morning, which all bookmakers were slow to cotton to.

As of 3.30pm on Thursday afternoon, it still wasn't priced up by anyone.

In truth, punting at Chester is not number one of my fun things to do - come to think about, that list is empty as I am a joyless soul - and the 7f handicap looks a nasty little heat that prices probably wouldn't add to.

There is pace in one, three, five, eight and 11 and the one drawn right on the inside is the sexy gadgee, William Haggas's thrice-raced handicap debutant Lord Bertie, coming here on the back of a made all, 12-length win at Thirsk.

The layers will be taking no chances with him when they finally price up and nor should they considering he is a 500,000 euros son of Wootton Bassett racing off a mark of 95 with a Cambridgeshire entry further down the line.

The Betfair Sportsbook market is just up and makes Lord Bertie a 7/42.75 poke, by the way.

The 1m6f Listed race at 15:20 has thankfully held up pretty well from just nine entries at the five-day stage - though we lost a leading player in the shape of Ching Shi at the overnight stage - and six go to post.

It is no surprise to see Derby flop Military Order the 11/102.11 favourite, with Ralph Beckett's Lone Eagle at 5/23.50, and the betting is pretty much as expected throughout.

Beckett also has Thanks Monica in here and both of his are forward-goers, so they could set the Godolphin runner a tricky combined test from the front.

Right, that's me done.

Please tune in the 8am Betting Briefing on the Betfair Racing Twitter handle on Saturday morning for a wider look at that day's racing.

Until then, good luck.

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