ITV Races

Tony Calvin's Ante-post Tips: Potapova is Sandown standout at 14/1

  • Tony Calvin
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin
TC is backing Potapova at 14/1 but hurry while the price holds

Tony Calvin previews this Saturday's racing at Sandown and finds one to back at an excellent price...

  • TC's early take on a Saturday of quality racing

  • 14/115.00 is great price if some rain stays away

  • Gaassee in winnable territory off mark of 99


The sheer volume of racing in the past week or so was phenomenal, both at home and abroad - at one stage on Saturday the congestion madness saw seven meetings taking place at the same time on Racing TV - so it is a wonder the sport still has enough horses to adequately service its needs this weekend.

Make that every weekend, in fact, especially with the Racing League at Newcastle on Thursday stretching the elastic even further.

Of course, sometimes we fall pitifully short on the numbers front, and the class of animal needed to fill the seven ITV races from three tracks (Sandown, Chester and Beverley) this Saturday largely come from roughly the same talent pool used for the Ebor meeting, even if this weekend is generally of a slightly lower standard.

There are a couple of Group 3s at Sandown though, and any of the entrants for those could have been plying their trade at York last week, notably the juveniles.

Sandown - Saturday 15:35: No bet

The standard of winners of the 2yo 7f Solario Stakes at 15:35 has not been great in recent years but the previous roll call of honors in the past decade number Kingman, Masar and Too Darn Hot. Not too shabby.

We have just 11 entries at the five-day stage (there could have been a maximum field of 14) and, while we definitely don't have a stand-out going into the race, all are winners (three are unbeaten and nine scored last time out), so it looks competitive, alright.

It must have been a nightmare to price up and there may be one or two ricks in there, but I am damned if I can see them.

You are on your own there then, though Magsood is also entered at Carlisle on Friday and Chester on Saturday, so I'd be giving him an ante-post swerve if I were you. The same applies to Savvy Kingdom, also entered off a mark of 82 in the nursery later in the card.

And I suppose Joseph O'Brien's Warnie could have engagements at home this weekend when the Irish four-day decs are out on Tuesday afternoon (the same applies to all of the Irish entries at Sandown, so keep an eye out).

Betfair Sandown Flat.jpg

If you fancy Sir Michael Stoute's Starlore, a course winner on debut and the early favourite, at least you will have been heartened to see the trainer had his first winner for a month when Passenger edged home at Windsor on Saturday night.

Oh, I should mention the current going at Sandown has quickened up to good (good to firm in places) on Tuesday morning. But be warned that one weather site has 7mm set to land on Thursday alone (that was forecast to be 11mm on Monday, so it is improving, which could be important, so please read on), with 1mm here and there on other days, so horses proven with a bit of ease may be the way to go.

And, as Goodwood saw on Saturday, even a forecast 2mm can quickly turn into 16mm.

I would have loved to have seen William Haggas' face when he found out about that unexpected rain that turned Goodwood from good ground to soft, heavy in places, as he had withdrawn his mudlover Aldaary from the 90k-to-the-winner Celebration Mile in the morning. He would have gone off favourite in those conditions.

Sandown - Saturday 14:25: Back Potapova

The Group 3 fillies and mares Atalanta Stakes at 14:25 has also thrown up the odd top grade winner, notably Saffron Beach in 2021, and the Betfair Sportsbook favourite for this year's renewal is Coppice at 7/24.50, though that admittedly is a very defensive price.

There are a whopping 21 entries and I initially filed this under "too difficult", as well. Thirteen of the 21 are in the 100-1007 ratings bracket - the lowest-rated on 91 is the unbeaten Nibras Angel - and who knows how many of those are intending to rock up?

Not I.

I originally thought it was probably one for Thursday after the 10am decs. I reckon you may well get at least similar prices for most, with perhaps an extra place (or two) thrown in, if waiting, as there could well be near to a maximum field of 16.

However, given Tuesday's ground update, one exception on the price front could be last year's winner Potapova at a stand-out 14/115.00 with the Sportsbook if the main bulk of the forecast rain stays away.

Back Potapova @ 14/115.00

Bet now

She was rated 110 after winning this race pretty easily last season and she has come back pretty well from the irregular heartbeat that caused her to be pulled up at Goodwood in May, finishing a fair fifth in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge last time.

She also finished fourth to Saffron Beach in this race in 2021, so you'd imagine you'd be on a runner at least, and maybe a significant shortener if the ground stays decent, as she likes it good.

Back her at 14/115.00 win only. She is 12/113.00 elsewhere, and that price would be fine, too. In truth, any double-figures is okay. She is the best horse in the race on her form in 2022.

Sandown - Saturday 13:50: No bet

Sandown and ITV are also staging a couple of handicaps to go at.

In the 16-strong 7f handicap at 13:50, be aware that Baileysgutfeeling finished fifth at Chepstow on Monday, and Bodorgan is due to run at Newbury on Tuesday.

In addition, Maywake is also entered in a 15k-to-the-winner handicap at Thirsk on Friday (as is Tough Enough and Urban Sprawl) and Chester on Saturday and Tahitian Prince has the option of Chelmsford on Saturday night.

Surprisingly perhaps, given the above, the first firm up on Monday afternoon made Tough Enough and Bodorgan their market leaders at 4/15.00 and 5/16.00 respectively, with three other double-entered horses ranging from just 15/28.50 to 10/111.00.

But the Sportsbook both made that pair 5/16.00, behind their 7/24.50 favourite Amber Island and 4/15.00 Farasi Lane.

They are betting to margins which anticipate plenty of no-shows, but they clearly want Amber Island, a non-runner four times since winning at Leicester in June, on-side. The same horse is 10/111.00 elsewhere, though that is decidedly out of line with the wider market.

Basically, most of the weekend markets - those that have been priced up anyway, as some firms haven't bothered yet - are in some disarray!

I can fully see the case for the progressive course and distance winner Tough Enough - and I imagine he will be a strong favourite if getting there on the day - but that Thirsk Friday entry is surely off-putting to potential ante-post punters.

Alpha Capture, available at 9/110.00 with the Sportsbook, showed a little bit more life when punted in a first-time visor at Newbury last time and was dropped another 3lb for it (making it an 18lb slide in just four starts this season) and maybe he has hit his true 2023 handicap level now.

Mind you, I am surprised they didn't try to find a 0-80 for him now he is rated 82.

Sandown - Saturday 15:00: No bet

The 1m1f209yd handicap at 15:00 sees Gaassee among the 21 entries, and he was pulled out at York on Saturday on account of the quick ground.

He was a fairly big early market mover there, opening up at 11/112.00 and 10/111.00 on the Thursday and as low as 5/16.00 when he was withdrawn on Saturday morning.

The key to him could well be the drop back down to 1m2f for the time since he won at Newcastle in November 2021 - the intended run last weekend was also over an extended 1m2f - as, even when he won over 1m4f at York in May 2022, and when tried over further afterwards (he actually went off 4/15.00 favourite for last year's Ebor), he often looked a weak finisher.

Indeed, he looked to be hosing up over 1m4f at Ascot last time, hitting 1.331/3 in-running, before emptying out to finish fourth.

Any significant rain will be a plus to him, and a mark of 99 is definitely in winnable territory.

Given he was so well supported on Saturday, he was never going to be missed in the market though, and the first firm up made him just 9/25.50. The Sportsbook haven't priced it up at the time of publishing (no doubt it will follow soon).

Dual Identity and Kingori both declined (or were denied) Newcastle opportunities on Thursday, for what it is worth.

Betfair Beverley.jpg

The going at Chester was good to soft (soft in places) on Monday morning - no update since then - and the forecast is for rain from Wednesday through to Friday, but not a great deal as it stands (5mm).

There are just nine entries for the 1m6f87yd Listed race on ITV there at 15:20 , but at least none are double-entered this week.

There are only 23 runners combined in the two ITV races at Beverley where the going is good, good to soft in places, and there is currently minimal rain forecast all week (around 6mm in total).

There are 12 in the 30k 1m4f23yd handicap at 14:05. Dream Harder and Rathgar were not selected for Racing League duty on Thursday, so that may help numbers, but Stowell is also in at Ffos Las on Friday.

In the Beverley Bullet at 14:40, the Sportsbook's initial 3/14.00 favourite Silky Wilkie and 12/113.00 poke Dakota Gold are due to run in the Racing League at Newcastle on Thursday night, so don't back them.

Better news for Beverley is that Bond Chairman and Elegant Erin, also in the Newcastle race at the five-day stage, didn't confirm on Tuesday morning.

The only bet I could find was Potapova, so I will park it there.

Back later in the week. Good luck in the meantime.


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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.