Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin is expecting London to Tower over rivals in St Leger

• Tower Of London at 12/113.00 is Tony's main St Leger fancy

• Very sweet on the chances of 16/117.00 Kimngrace

• Baryshnikov at 15/28.50 a confident bet at Chester

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I read yesterday that there are 12 2yo races at Doncaster's four-day meeting - a very dirty dozen as far as I am concerned - so little wonder I have been struggling for bets there this week.

My one moment of betting weakness in a juvenile race on Thursday was beaten after 50 yards after Romanova pulled her head off and William Buick decided to fight her all the way, instead of letting her stride on, bless him.

In the circumstances, the filly probably did well to finish a 23-length last of seven.

A case of Bad Will Punting, that.

Doncaster - 15:35: Back Tower Of London

I haven't had any difficulty getting stuck into the St Leger ante-post market though and, touch wood, all three that I have nibbled at long range - Desert Hero at 8/19.00, Tower Of London 12/113.00 and Chesspiece 20/121.00 - get to the start in one piece and give me a full run for my money.

In truth, I am hopeful rather than confident, for all they have their chances.

Arrest has been the mover in the market ever since the rain started to fall with a vengeance on Tuesday morning (and soft ground on Thursday morning saw Frankie Dettori switch from long-time favourite Gregory) but his price has clearly gone now, and I'd also be against Continuous at the top of the market as I have him down as a dubious stayer.

That may be a stupid thing to say about a near four-length winner of the Voltigeur, when he was pouring it on late, but I can't get it out of my head that they went with the 1m2f+ option of the French Derby with him after the Dante, instead of Epsom.

Desert Hero is my premier ante-post hope from the current betting, and Tower Of London is set to relish this stamina test, but I think the supplemented Melrose winner Middle Earth is yet another player at double-figures on the exchange.

I was going to leave the race alone now and pray for that rarest of birds, an ante-post winner for me, but, as I always do, I wrote the first draft of this column on Thursday afternoon and decided to take a fresh look on Friday morning once I have seen the overnight weather and the updated markets.

I did, and decided Tower Of London was the overpriced horse, so I am pressing up at 12/113.00 each way with the Sportsbook.

I'd be very worried if they get a lot more rain on Saturday (around 3mm at the moment), as his record says he is much better on decent ground, and I'd rather Jim Crowley wasn't on board to be perfectly honest. Just a personal preference.

But I loved the horse when he won at Down Royal (after which I backed him for this race) and he really should have won the Bahrain Trophy last time, a race for which he was absolutely smashed into in the betting from an opening 2/13.00 straight after the overnights decs into 4/61.67 on the day. A very big, sustained move.

The bare form obviously needs improving on, but he had to wait for a run there, and Ryan Moore lost his whip when switching to the rail to make his challenge, and it really was an opportunity missed.

He is set to thrive given a thorough test of stamina - he is a brother to St Leger winner Capri, as well as another decent stayer in Cypress Creek - and I have to side with him at the current odds.

Doncaster - 13:50: No Bet

The Doncaster ITV action kicks off with the five-runner Champagne Stakes at 13:50 and Rosallion is the predictable odds-on jolly.

He was hugely impressive on what Timeform called good to soft ground at Ascot last time but I just wonder whether odds of 8/151.53 flatter him a touch, for all the 4-length runner-up won a Listed race at Haydock on Saturday and the handicapper has him 11lb clear of the field. And he is as short as 4/91.44 in places.

He finished 15 ½ lengths clear of Sunway at Ascot but I just have a feeling that the David Menuisier colt could get a lot closer today.

Sunway went off at 5/23.50 that day, and Rosallion at 11/112.00, so he ran massively below expectations, and the fact that the trainer chances him in a Group 2 here off the back of that blow-out could be telling.

Oisin Murphy was clearly very impressed with the horse when he won at Sandown on his debut, as he apparently advised Qatar Racing to buy into him (which they did), so the odds must be that something was amiss with the horse at Ascot.

A first-time tongue-tie hints that they think a breathing issue may have been the issue and Sunway, 16/117.00 outright, is a horse that I may look to get with once the Without Favourite markets come out from Friday afternoon onwards.

One for my Twitter Spaces programme at 8am on Saturday, perhaps. I'll be looking for 6/17.00 upwards.

Doncaster - 14:25: Back Kimngrace

I do have a bet in the 5f143yd Portland handicap at 14:25 though, and that is Kimngrace at 16/117.00 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

I wasn't chuffed when I woke up on Friday morning to see the 20/121.00 had gone and she had also been backed on the exchange - not unrelated I'd have thought - but 16/117.00 is acceptable.

This filly was given an all-weather mark of 100 (now 99) after her Listed success in February but she can race off 87 here after a series of relatively modest turf efforts on the face of it.

However, I'd be more charitable than that and I thought she shaped nicely under Ryan Moore at York last time when not getting the run of the race. Indeed, she did very well to be beaten just over 2 lengths, going on well at the finish once the race was over. Moore was not hard on her, either.

The handicapper dropped her another, generous, 2lb for that run and She was rated 6lb higher than this after running out a 3-length winner on good to soft over 5f at York last October.

I love her draw in 17, as all the pace is middle to high (in fact I have it in 8, 9, 10, 13, 15, 20 and 21), so she can sit just off it, and be delivered late, as she did when bolting up at York.

George Rooke has ridden her for two of her four career victories, and the Richard Hughes stable are chugging along nicely, with six winners in the last 11 days (just 40 all season).

As sprint handicaps bet go, I am relatively confident of a bold show here, for all luck always plays a huge part in these races. And she is ground-versatile, too, if the weather becomes a factor.

Doncaster - 15:00: No Bet

I thought Sandrine was a touch overpriced at 4/15.00 with the Sportsbook in the 7f Group 2 Park Stakes at 15:00 after running what the handicapper thought was a career-best when a length third to Kinross and Audience in a first-time visor last time, a fair shout considering she won the Lennox Stakes last season.

She can take a lead from forward-goers Audience and Pogo, and maybe pick these up late does, but I don't see any pressing need to force a bet.

Chester - 14:05: No Bet

Just the six ITV races on ITV, with two contests from Chester.

Bluestocking is fully justified to be quoted at odds-on in the seven-runner 1m4f63yd Listed race at 14:05 as this is a significant drop in grade for her, for all Sea Of Roses could get an uncontested lead here from trap five.

Bluestocking must be sick of the sight of Aidan O'Brien fillies mugging her off, quite literally when she traded at 1.011/100 in the Irish, only to be chinned by a resurgent Savethelastdance, and she has finished behind Warm Heart on her other three starts this season.

It'll be disappointing if she can't record her first win of the campaign but, as Listed races go, this is a strong heat and victory is by no means assured. Like I said, the 10/111.00 poke Sea Of Roses could get it easy on the front end and the returning Al Qareem is actually rated 1lb higher than the filly on his 2022 exploits.

Chester - 14:40: Back Baryshnikov

No bet there, but I do like Baryshnikov in the 1m2f70yd handicap at 14:40 - a lot - and he rates a very good bet at 15/28.50 each way with the Sportsbook.

There are five in here that could go on and a strong pace would play into the selection's hands, as he a closer.

He is a three-times winner around here, from just six attempts, and on each occasion he has come late. He is ground-versatile and is down to a mark of just 87, having won around here off 91 last season.

The stable is in decent form after a quiet year and the horse hinted at a return to form when not given a hard time, after a tardy start, at Yarmouth last time.

Given he was a 14/1 to 25/1 drifter on the show there, and went off at a Betfair SP of 42.85837/20, I reckon that was a planned stepping stone to this and I reckon he will prove hard to beat if he gets the breaks from trap two.

He was drawn in berths two, three and five in his victories here and hopefully Ben Curtis can negotiate the all-important run around this oft-frustrating track, with no hard luck stories involved

It's been a very quiet punting week, but good luck. It steps up a gear on Saturday.

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