Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has a quartet of fresh bets in England and USA

• Marathon day of ITV Racing on Saturday
• Tony Calvin adds four fresh selections to his ante-post bets
• He says Frodon can kick rivals into touch at Wincanton
• Has a rare selection at the Breeders' Cup

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With so many ITV races to get through from England, Ireland and America on Saturday, I make no apology for only mentioning contests in which I have had a bet, or I am advising one.

It is going to be heavy, heavy, heavy at Doncaster - god, visions of Growth, Growth, Growth Liz jumped into my head here, and I wondered if she was enjoying as much time off now as fellow wasters Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock, without the scrutiny - and only mudlarks need apply, as Neil from the Young Ones may have said if he were a horsey type.

Analyst has an outsider's chance on ground he'll love

I don't tend to get involved too much in sprints but I have to get stuck in at the prices in the 6f Listed Wentworth Stakes at 12:50.

Step forward Volatile Analyst. He was 66/1 with the Sportsbook when they closed their ante-post market early on Thursday, and he remains that price.

Firstly, the considerable negatives, as you always get with horses priced up at these odds.

He has beaten only six of 65 rivals home on his last four starts, and his trainer Keith Dalgleish is on a massive losing run on the Flat and over jumps.

But the trainer has had a couple of near-misses of late (a pair beaten a head and ½ length into second), and this horse has had excuses for three of those four latest runs. He has lost shoes on two occasions, and he finished lame when we last saw him in the Ayr Gold Cup in September.

And it is worth remembering he was rated 105 after winning the Cammidge Trophy in this grade over course and distance in March - he actually beat the then 109-rated Diligent Harry a head off levels - and that form gives him more than a squeak in ground that he loves.

Okay, he has never actually raced on officially heavy ground but he excels on soft and with dig, and the facts that he stays 7f/1m is a big plus in these conditions.

I'd happy play him at 40/1, and I'd probably accept 33s, too.

Expecting a big run from 12/1 ante-post Moon wager

In the 13:30 at Doncaster, I put up Moon De Vega at 12/1 ante-post on Tuesday and she was steadily cut through the week, so much so that her price ranged from 4s to 6s on Thursday morning.

That was clearly far too short in such a big-field, competitive, race for all she has a lot going for her here.

She would have been a clear third in the Cheshire Oaks with a clear run, meeting significant interference on the final bend, and as the first two home were Thoughts Of June and the subsequent Group 1 winner Above The Curve, that form reads very well in this company.

And her subsequent run in a good Oaks was better than it looked, too.

Having tipped her at 66s, I momentarily got a touch excited when she hit the front 2 out. Very briefly admittedly, as she soon dropped away, but she was beaten only 11 lengths in the end and it could be that this shorter trip will suit her better.

And that would make some sense give the sire is probably more of a speed than stamina influence.

She didn't pull up any trees when fourth in a Group 3 at Newcastle three weeks later but it was a fair effort, and perhaps it came too soon after Epsom as well, or she didn't fire on the track, as many do not.

But it was an okay effort and, given a break since, returning on her favoured ground on a track she has won at and possibly at her optimum trip, I am expecting a very big run.

I can't suggest backing her at the current odds though, so I won't put her up afresh here, especially as all the horses I feared from the five-day stage have stood their ground. However, I'll be surprised if she doesn't drift - the Sportsbook are 4s - and she would start to become a bet again at 6/1+.

Happy with Victory in November Handicap but Israr could take some stopping

On Monday, I also put up On To Victory at 25/1 each way for the November handicap at 15:13. The horse won this race in 2020 - by 1 ¾ lengths in the soft off a 7lb higher mark than this - and everything looks in place for a big run.

Mind you, his trainer Alan King didn't seem overly-confident about his chance on Wednesday and I acknowledge the horse has not been in the best of form of late, and he is some way detached from the level that saw him finish a 1 ½ length second, off levels, to subsequent Group 1 winner Hukum on soft ground at Goodwood in May 2021.

But he was rated 104 then, is now down to a mark of just 92, and there was a lot more promise in his run at Goodwood early in October, his first run for 99 days.

By the way, that mark of 92 is the lowest he has raced off since winning by 8 lengths off 87 in June 2017.

He finished sixth of eight to stablemate Tritonic (also in here) and was beaten 6 lengths last time, but he travelled well on the inside there for a lot of the race - and the far rail may not have been the place to be that day - and he got dropped 2lb for that outing after a three-month absence. He was not knocked out around that day, either.

Again, I won't press up my ante-post tip but if you are fresh to the party then he is obviously still a fair bet at 20s with the Sportsbook (who are now paying six places), though I fully accept the 3/1 favourite Israr could prove mighty hard to beat, and smart hurdler Metier is very interesting on this ground.

Spirits high if games can grab at least a place

I am working on the basis of soft ground at Aintree, and that would slightly put me off last year's runner-up Senior Citizen in the Grand Sefton at 14:11.

Don't laugh now, but I am going to give Spiritofthegames another chance at 10/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I am somehow always drawn to the oldies and this 10yo hasn't won since 2018 - we all know he has become a non-winner - but he has everything that you would look for when looking for an each way punt in this race.

He comes here after a good return at Fakenham (when he wasn't wearing his usual cheekpieces, which are back on here), he is still on a good mark off 136 despite being raised 2lb for that close second in a decent handicap, he will enjoy the ground and he ran a decent fifth in the Topham over these fences in April on good to soft.

He stays 3m, so this more testing ground over 2m5f will play to his strengths, and I am happy to risk him yet again at this price.

Lifetime Ambition would appeal most of the rest.

Frodon still a good price to land the Beer

Even after a deluge all week we are probably looking at good ground at Wincanton, where the Badger Beer Handicap at 13:50 holds centre stage for punting purposes.

Frodon was 12/1 earlier in the week and he remained that price in a few places for about 15 minutes even after Paul Nicholls tweeted on Tuesday that he was coming here instead of going to Down Royal with him.

Those who were alert got the juicy prices as he was a top-priced 5s by the end of the day, and that is basically his price now, give or take a half-point or so on the exchange.

And it is still on the big side, as it is not hard to see Frodon kicking this lot out of the way, even if Paul Nicholls is not sure all the ability remains and the fact that he has had a wind op is possibly a touch off-putting.

He will surely be plenty straight enough here, if a Grade 1 run in Ireland was on the cards as recently as Tuesday, and his record when fresh is great anyway, as evidenced by his win in that Down Royal race last year. And a first-time-out success the season before.

The handicapper dropped him an incredibly generous 6lb on the back of his Ultima run, a race in which he was struck into, and he could eat these alive off a mark of just 158.

I appreciate there are a few in here who could harry him on the front end, but he has seen off much classier horses than this in the past,

He finished alone when winning the Rising Stars at this meeting in 2016, and the 10yo could easily do a job on this lot, too.

He was only 12s earlier in the week because he was odds-against to come here at the time, so back him at 5.04/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange.

Frodon is also 4s with the Sportsbook.

I'd fear recent Cheltenham winner Lord Accord most.

Breeders' Cup Turf can go to Stone Age

ITV are also showing eight Breeders' Cup races from Keeneland from 15:50 onwards, so I would strongly advise punters to pace themselves on the betting front.

I know Responsible Gambling Week has passed but with the terrestrial coverage spanning nine hours from the 12:40 at Wincanton to the 21:40 at Keeneland discipline really is key.

You really don't want to be chasing at any time, but especially not with an uninterrupted 19 races on the box.

I know we all like to press up when prices change, and I certainly do, but I tend to place most of my bets before racing starts and leave it at that.

Regular readers will know that I don't tend to get involved much in the Breeders' Cup these days, as trying to keep on top of the unremitting, un-ending railroad that is UK and Irish racing is a thankless task on its own, without factoring in the US.

But I did have a good look at the turf races on Saturday's card and came up with one small-stakes play on Stone Age at 10.09/1 and bigger in the Turf at 20:40.

Reading between the lines it doesn't sound like there is a great deal of confidence in either the selection or his stablemate Broome, but that doesn't concern me, as I like to concentrate on what I see.

And I think Stone Age could just have been campaigned with this race in mind since Epsom.

Okay, you could hardly call his profile convincing, and he has been beaten in lesser races in the States twice this summer, but I am focusing on his last two starts.

I thought he ran a remarkable race to finish as close as he did in the Irish Champion Stakes given he was sacrificed to a large degree on the front end and Ryan Moore certainly didn't throw the kitchen sink at him in the face of a another very hard task at Ascot last time against a host of top-notchers. Even so, his fifth place there was another unheralded effort, I feel. And on ground probably softer than ideal for him, too.

That Ascot race was a far deeper Group 1 than this, and he was only beaten just over 3 lengths at 40/1 there (went off at a totally unfancied 58.69 at Betfair SP).

His only start over 1m4f to date resulted in a poor run in the Derby, but his stamina doesn't concern me at all around here on quick ground, and he could just be hard to catch if he gets on the lead from trap three, though he may have early pace to contend with from stall one and from Broome in four.

Don't forget he was he as short as the 2/1 Derby favourite in a place after running away with the Leopardstown Trial from the front on decent ground in May, and now is the time that he could repay the high faith they had him in then, five defeats later.

The stable won this race around here in 2015 with a similar 3yo in Found, in the sense that she was previously best at 1m2f beforehand, albeit Stone Age has a very different run-style to that filly.

Good luck.

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PROFIT AND LOSS (from March 26)

Staked: 247
Returns: 351.5pts
P/L: +104.5

PREVIOUS (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1

All exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP for sake of fairness

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