In his second antepost preview this week Tony Calvin doubles back to Donny and finds a promising 12/1 wager for this Saturday...
- TC says course winner looks class apart
- Heavy ground at Doncaster won't be a problem
- Expect a big run at optimum trip
We have already touched upon Exeter's Haldon Gold Cup meeting on Friday and Saturday's November Handicap at Doncaster, so I went looking for an ante-post bet at Aintree and Wincanton at the weekend.
And failed.
It wasn't for the want of trying I can tell you, but the good news - hopefully it is good news anyway - is that I have found a decent wager back at Donny.
Heavy ground won't be a problem
Normally, the 23-runner 1m2f43yd Listed Fillies race (at 13:30), featuring plenty of improvers in a close-knit contest from a ratings perspective, wouldn't be an obvious port of call for me.
However, I think Moon De Vega could be a class apart from these and she is well worth a win-only bet at 12/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.
I am working on the basis of heavy ground at Doncaster on Saturday - it was soft on Monday and they haven't updated the BHA site as I publish this on Tuesday morning - and that should be fine for the Lope De Vega filly, who won her maiden on soft going on this course last October.
I actually took a swing with her in the Oaks at a massive price after her reappearance effort at Chester, and I do think her run in that Cheshire Oaks in particular - though I will come to the Epsom run shortly - gives her an excellent chance in this grade.
She would have been a clear third at Chester with a clear run, meeting significant interference on the final bend, and as the first two were Thoughts Of June and the subsequent Group 1 winner Above The Curve, that form reads very well in this company.
And that run in the Oaks was better than it looked, too.
I momentarily got a touch excited when she hit the front two out. Very briefly admittedly, as she soon dropped away, but she was beaten only 11 lengths in the end and it could be that this shorter trip will suit her better.
And that would make some sense given the sire is probably more of a speed than stamina influence.
Expect a big run
She didn't pull up any trees when fourth in a Group 3 at Newcastle three weeks later but it was a fair effort, and I am pretty much ignoring that run anyway. Perhaps it came too soon after Epsom, or she didn't fire on the track, but, as I said anyway, it wasn't a massively below-par effort.
Given a break since, returning on her favoured ground on a track she has won at and possibly at her optimum trip, I am expecting a big run.
Ralph Beckett (who also has Star Fortress in here) has been finishing off a stellar season steadily enough, and I imagine he is very keen to get a Listed race win into his well-bred filly, so hopefully this has been a long-term plan.