Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has 12/1 and 9/1 bets at Sandown

• No bet in Tolworth but 16.015/1 Nemean Lion appeals

• Crosspark has a solid chance in Veterans' Chase

• A Hardy bet in the closing handicap hurdle

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We lost the 6/4 ante-post favourite Luccia earlier in the week with an unsatisfactory scope, and Scarface and Joe Dadancer also came out at the overnight stage, but we are still left with the dead eight in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at 14:25, so let's hope we get no more defections.

If the forecast on Friday and Saturday (rain on both days, especially the latter) holds true we are looking at heavy ground over hurdles, and probably not far off it on the chase track, and that always spells slow-motion stuff at Sandown.

I have said it numerous times before but I have never known a course like it for horses seemingly travelling well to stopping to a walk within a matter of strides, so it comes with an in-running wealth warning.

Lion the one I'd roar on in Tolworth but no bet

The Tolworth will not house a Constitution Hill this year - or probably won't in any other year, past or present - but it has also thrown up a couple of other Festival winners of late in Summerville Boy and Yorkhill and it is not out of the realms of possibility a leading Cheltenham contender could emerge on Saturday afternoon.

Unlikely, but possible.

It is good to have an Irish element to proceedings with Cork winner Arctic Bresil coming over for Henry de Bromhead and he is tussling with Authorised Speed and Tahmuras for favouritism now, albeit in third spot.

I am not getting involved in the race at this stage but I fully get the case for Nemean Lion at the price, and odds dictate all, obviously.

If you put any store in official ratings then Kerry Lee's 6yo is no 16/1+ poke on the exchange (currently 16/1 with the Sportsbook). He is rated 131, just 3lb and 1lb respectively below Tahmuras and Authorised Speed, and he will probably handle conditions as well as most.

Sure, you can pick holes in his form and question his rating but he has had just the two hurdle starts, he was giving an unexposed winner (and one who finished second in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April) 5lb when second at Haydock last time, and he finished second in a 1m7f heavy ground Group 2 in France in 2020 when trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin (he was actually picked up for a very cheap 18k out of there in November 2021).

He'd definitely be the way I'd lean if having a bet - and the stable had its first winner since November on Wednesday - but I do accept it is a race full of question marks.

I might be Cross if park doesn't run well in Veterans' Chase

We should be aware of everything there is to know about all the runners in the Veterans' Chase at 15:00, though.

When I looked at this race at the five-day stage I suggested the numbers would hold up, as it is a very valuable pot and none of the 19 entries had alternative entries this week, so I recommended punters hold fire in the anticipation of at least similar prices, with enhanced place terms thrown in, come the weekend.

As it was, top weight Dingo Dollar was the only no-show at the overnight stage on Thursday morning.

That is highly likely to be the only thing I call right on the race (the Sportsbook were three places on Tuesday, but are now five) as an 18-runner 3m handicap for old-stagers will take some solving.

As I admitted in my Tuesday ante-post piece, I was filthy at myself for missing the fancy prices (he was 25s in a few places) about Crosspark but let's deal in the here and now.

And that means I am happy to back him at 13.012/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange.

I am going win-only as this really is incredibly competitive, as it should be with over £51k to the winner, and he doesn't have the most solid of recent profiles. Plus, as a 13yo, he doesn't have youth on his side, even against this ageing mob.

But what he does have is an impressive body of work at this track.

He has form figures of 2226 here, with a length second in this race off a 6lb higher mark in 2021 on his dance card, and the sixth came in the bet365 Gold Cup.

Testing ground holds no fears for him and his comeback run at Haydock, off a lengthy absence, was promising enough. He nearly trebled in price to a Betfair SP of 70.069/1 in the final few minutes of trading that day, but he ran well for a long way.

And that was a very strong handicap (in the context of this race anyway), with runner-up The Big Breakaway finishing second in the Welsh National and the third, Rapper, sluicing up at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The winner, Fontaine Collonges, ran okay at Kempton over Christmas, too.

Crosspark can run here as the qualifier he was set to run in at this course on November 6 was abandoned and his new trainer Nick Kent has found a bit of form too, sending out a 40/1 winner at Market Rasen on Boxing Day, with his Erne River also finishing a good second at Doncaster.

He will do for me, and I imagine you will get bigger than 12s on the exchange, too. Indeed, he is currently trading at 15.014/1 there.

Venetia Williams raiders have big chances

I counted that five of the eight runners in the 2m4f handicap chase at 13:15 could go forward, a race in which Gerimande initially made the most appeal.

A 4yo chase winner in France, he has been very consistent since being sent over fences by current connections - form figures of 23221 - and he did it well from the front at Southwell last time. He is 10lb higher here but the 7 ½-length runner-up won at Leicester afterwards.

However, there are enough potential negatives to put me off him. Three, mainly.

The first has already been touched upon, in that he will have competition for the lead, and the second is the ground.

The third is, most importantly, the price, as no way should he be a general 7/4 chance, surely?

I know he won in testing conditions in France and this is Tough Mudder Venetia we are talking about here, but he was pulled up in heavy ground in a handicap hurdle on this card in 2021 and all his best runs in this country have been on a decent surface.

I'll let him slide by then, as it is a tricky enough race, anyway. The handicapper has only raised Certainly Red 5lb for a 17-length win in the fog at Wincanton (he was left clear 2 out, admittedly) and he is just one of a few troublesome opponents.

Even though the track and ground will play to his staying strengths, I do think Frero Banbou is more of a 2m4f horse, so I can just about pass him up in what is a very competitive 7-runner 1m7f119yd handicap chase at 13:50.

I must admit the Sportsbook's opening, stand-out, 5/1 on Thursday morning was tempting enough (the 5s became 9/2 and then 7/2) and the predicted pace set-up in here promises to be a positive for him too, as four of the seven have gone on in the recent past.

Furthermore, he has won and finished a good second in two starts here - he was given too much to do in Dolos' annual gimme in February - so it really is very easy to make a case for him.

But the opposition is quite fierce and considerable, even in such a small field - and he is vulnerable to an improver off what is a pretty established mark of 140 - so I'll sit this one out at the reduced price. The current 7-2 is the general offer about him.

Du Seuil looks a Hardy bet in Sandown finale

The Sandown card concludes with a 2m handicap hurdle at 15:35 and Lightly Squeeze has a lot going for him, with the exception of one key ingredient perhaps.

Course form.

I have no doubt he is handicapped to win again, having gone up only 6lb for winning as he liked on his first start back with Harry Fry at Kempton last time, but he has not shown much in three starts here on the Flat and over jumps.

I may be overplaying that angle and 4s could be adequate compensation, but it is a touch off-putting for a short-priced contender, all the same.

I may have a small saver on him to ensure I don't lose if he wins - in fact, I will - but my main bet in the race is Hardy Du Seuil at 10.09/1 or bigger.

He won over hurdles on his final start in France but he was sent novice chasing last term, a discipline that saw him earn a mark of 135 after a string of good efforts (witness his form figures over fences of F1U1222, with the fall coming at the first and the unseat coming 2 out in a race he still had half a chance of winning).

But he is rated just 124 over hurdles now.

He was 3lb out of the handicap first up in the Welsh Champion Hurdle this term and there was plenty more promise in his third over an extended 2m3f on good ground over at Wetherby last time, though his finish on the run-in Was a touch tame, admittedly. He has been dropped 6lb for those two hurdle starts this season, which seems pretty generous to me.

I like the fact that he stays a lot further than this 2m and that two of his best chase starts came on soft ground (obviously that French win came in testing conditions, as they all do!) so I'd be reasonably confident of a bold show here for a yard in fair enough nick.

I'd be happy to back him at 8/1 or bigger, which is the price the Sportsbook have him in at if you want to play there. As with Crosspark, I'd hope you'd get bigger, though.

We also have three small-field races at Wincanton on ITV, and they are decent enough races to be fair, but I couldn't see a bet, so I'll cut out the no-bet waffle for once and park it there.

Good luck.

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