ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Truckers Lodge to roll back years at 16/1

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
It's five tips from Tony on Saturday

There's no let up in the tipping for Tony Calvin after Cheltenham as he recommends four bets at Uttoxeter and one at Kempton on Saturday...

It may be a case of after the Lord Mayor's show and all that (you will be reading and hearing that opening line about a thousand times in the next 24 hours) this Saturday. But it is important you still put in the same amount of prep and homework if betting and tipping, and I actually liked a fair few at Uttoxeter and Kempton.

Old campaigner has every chance

I'll start at Uttoxeter and what will be the biggest betting race of the day, the Midlands National at 15:00, and I am hoping the 11yo Truckers Lodge - ridden by Betfair ambassador Bryony Frost - can roll back the years and repeat his win in the race in 2020.

As we often say with these old campaigners - often just before they are summarily stuffed, admittedly - the handicapper certainly gives them every chance.

He won this race off a mark of 141 in 2020, and then finished seventh off 153 in 2021 and sixth off 149 last season, but he finds himself racing off a mere 135 here and I thought there was plenty of promise in his run at Musselburgh last time.

He would have preferred much softer ground than he got there, and I think his 7lb claimer may have minded him a bit on the good to soft going, so I took a very positive view of his 11-length fifth.

He was dropped a further 2lb for that, meaning he has come down 10lb for just three starts this season, and I was very surprised that the opening quotes for him were 20/1 on Thursday morning.

The Sportsbook actually went 25s before Mr Incredible was taken out on Friday morning but he remains a bet at 16/1 each-way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Time for a saver

The 2021 winner Time To Get Up has a very similar profile to the selection and, while he will actually be able to race off a 5lb lower mark in future, I couldn't put you off a saver on him. Even 5lb wrong, he is still 8lb lower than for winning this two years ago.

In fact, back him at 16/1 each-way, five places, too. 14/1 would be okay.

We are dealing with inconsistent ageing stayers so I am not going overboard on the stakes front.

Reasons to be Wilde About Oscar

The opening ITV race at Uttoxeter at 13:15 is very tricky, although I thought the form of the Neil Mulholland yard, fresh headgear and the return to hurdles made Chinwag interesting enough at the Sportsbook's 20/1 without having me itching for a bet.

In the 14:25, Wilde About Oscar may lack the upside of plenty of his rivals but what he does have is an unbeaten record at the track (two from two) , an ability to act in deep ground (I should say it is soft here, heavy in places, with more rain on its way) , and a workable handicap mark.

He shaped plenty well enough when sixth in a first-time tongue-tie (retained here) at Sandown last time and, given his course record, perhaps connections have had one eye on this race for a while. He won on this card back in 2021 off a mark of 146 after all, and he can race off 136 here.

The opening 11/1 about him has long gone but he rates a bet at 9.08/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. Any 7/1+ will be fine (currently 13/2 with the Sportsbook, who are offering four places).

Gustavian has obvious claims

I thought another course winner Gustavian held fair claims in the 3m handicap chase at 15:35, and had a decent shot at going one better than his second to Saint Palais in the race last season.

He has obvious claims here, for all he got the easiest of leads when winning by a street at Exeter last time - the handicapper put his finger in the air and came out with just a 5lb rise for that - and I am more than willing to back him to small stakes at 8.07/1 or bigger.

He is also 7/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to punt him there.

I do fear a few in here though, notably Iron Bridge,

If you told me before I looked at the ITV Uttoxeter races that I would come up with four bets, albeit to modest stakes, I would have thought you were barking mad.

King overpriced at Kempton

Kempton punts are harder to come by this Saturday.

Mulholland's Any News was fair enough at 4/1+ in the 13:30 and Outlaw Peter is a decent price at around 11/2 in the 14:05 - he went off at 11/2 when pulled up in the far more competitive Lanzarote, a race in which a whole host disappointed and only four of the 20 finished - but I am going to hold off backing the latter as he wouldn't appreciate the forecast ground.

It is already good to soft (soft in places) at Kempton with more rain due on Friday and Saturday.

I do like One True King in the 14:40, though the less rain the better for him as well, for he handles soft.

Look to back him at 21.020/1 or bigger win-only. That looks a reasonable price to aim given 20s is widely available in the marketplace, but 16/1+ will be cool, too.

Again, you don't have to look far to find numerous dangers, chief among them Rouge Vif, who was around a 12/1 chance for the Grand Annual, only to be balloted out. One firm actually made him a 33/1 chance for this on Thursday, and that price has predictably tumbled.

He looks ridiculously well handicapped off 137 and he is apparently in peak health but the problem with him is the extended 2m4f trip, as he is essentially a two-miler.

One True King will benefit from coming down in trip, though he has been running okay over 3m, and I expect him to be ridden more prominently here with Jordan Nailor, who won on this horse in 2021, replacing a 7lb claimer.

If they do decide to go forward with him, they may have to be sensible as there will be competition for the lead, but he looks overpriced to me.

Good luck.

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Profit and Loss (from March 26; does not include any Cheltenham results)

Staked: 359 Returns: 489.8 P/L: +130.8 Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022) P/L: + 183.1 All exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP for sake of fairness


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