Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs 33/1 shot to Shake things up at York

• 33/134.00 sees Tony take his chances on Shake A Leg

• 9.08/1 Lion can roar to victory on the Knavesmire

• Rousing Encore and Bodorgan came close to being tipped

Let's hope a short break has brought with it a change of form/luck/judgement - in truth, form is a ridiculous description when you think about it, so delete that - and seeing the unhealthy negative below since we reset the profit and loss in mid-April annoys, and embarrasses, me greatly.

It would all have been different if a 33/134.00 selection had not got chinned by a short head after being carried across the track at Newbury last month, but those are the breaks that go for and against you when betting and tipping, and publishing the P&L keeps you honest.

Anyway, now those recent figures have now been acknowledged in print, and self-pity over, let's get down to business, with Royal Ascot looming large.

Chester - 15:20 - No bet

It's a tricky weekend if you want to boost that Royal Ascot betting bank, though I actually may cover nine races here - ITV are showing - as I studied two of those by mistake (the 13:40 and 15:25 at Sandown), thinking they were on the main telly box. I'll mention the Racing TV-only contests last though.

I may as well get the 7f127yd handicap at Chester at 15:20 out of the way first.

I counted seven of the 12 as potential forward-goers in here and the in-form Sophia's Starlight looks best placed to win that battle from trap two.

They clearly think Tafreej is better than his mark of 84 but his draw in eight is obviously tricky and the unexposed Royal Dubai probably interested me most after winning on his debut for Marco Botti at Chelmsford.

He was quite impressive there, but the problem is that the handicapper was even more enthused than I was and a mark of 90 makes this 8/1 poke's life tough here.

York - 14:00 - Back Shake A Leg

Up to York, and the card kicks off with the female amateur jockeys' Queen Mother's Cup at 14:00.

The 4/1 favourite Kihavah looks as solid as you will get in here, after successes at this track and over hurdles at Market Rasen last time, and he also has the notable assistance of Jody Townend.

And that brings me on to the dilemma I had when deciding whether to tip Shake A Leg at 34.033/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. He is also 33/134.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook, and that is probably the best place to back him win-only.

I am not sure if she has been injured but the horse's pilot Elle Paterson has not ridden this year, and she has had only four rides under Rules full stop.

That inexperience has to worry you but she did look tidy enough when winning on the stable's Secret Equity at Thirsk last August and at least Shake A Leg is a straightforward prominent racer.

He is also a horse who has been dropped 5lb for two runs this season and he shaped far better than his beaten distance would suggest behind Kihavah here last time. He was still in there pitching on the front end 2f out.

He is now 4lb lower than when beaten just 1 ½ lengths into third over course and distance on fast ground last August and, as much as there are obvious doubts about the jockey, I will take my chances win-only at 33/134.00, either on the Sportsbook or on the Betfair Exchange.

I may have a very small bet on Kihavah at around 4/15.00 and bigger on the exchange to cover my stake on the outsider.

York - 14:35 - Back Wild Lion

I always look out for Godolphin horses in first-time headgear and Wild Lion is worth a modest investment at 9.08/1 bigger on the Betfair Exchange in the 7f handicap at 14:35. The 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook is obviously fine and, again, that may be the best place to punt him now.

Personally, I will also stick in an in-running lay in on him at around 5/42.25 to get my stake back as he is a tricky sort who can find less than seems likely.

I guess that is why they are trying him in first-time cheekpieces here - the in-form Saeed bin Suroor is 24 from 117 with this option since 2016 (I actually thought it'd be better) - but he looks fairly handicapped off 91 and the key is maybe catching him fresh.

He was beaten only three lengths when 10th at Meydan last time out in February, so it was clearly not a bad effort, and his record off breaks previously is good.

He finished second on his debut, he won after a 408-day break in 2021, he was beaten ¾ length into third at Leicester after a 267-day absence in 2022 (traded at 1.45 in running) and won after a 52-day rest at Newcastle last October.

The trainer is a healthy six from 23 this season.

York - 15:05 - No Bet

No betting opinion in the 1m6f Listed race at 15:05, although it is easy enough to see Quickthorn getting an uncontested lead if seeing off the out-of-form Outbox (who is sometimes ridden off the pace anyway) early doors. Whether he wants the ground this quick is another matter but he could easily make all. He should be favourite.

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York 15:40 - No Bet

The Sportsbook are paying six places in the 6f handicap at 15:40 and that nearly lured me in with 40/141.00 chance King's Crown, and Rousing Encore at half his price. The Sportsbook are paying six places.

King's Crown can be easily forgiven his modest run at Beverley on Sunday as he missed the kick and Rousing Encore has dropped to an enticing mark of 97.

The latter was rated 102 as a juvenile, when his better efforts included a second to Sakheer in the Mill Reef and fourth in the Rockingham over course and distance (also finished sixth in the Coventry) , and he drops to handicap company for the first time here after running in Listed and Group 3 level this term.

He clearly hasn't been pulling up any trees but he shaped well enough in the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot last month.

The problem is the Sportsbook half-fancy him too and offer just 20/121.00 when he is 33/134.00 and 28/129.00 elsewhere in the marketplace, so I'll have to sit tight for now on the class-dropper.

Sandown - 14:15 - No Bet

I was all set to tip Bodorgan in Sandown's 14:15 at the Sportsbook's opening 11/26.50 early on Thursday afternoon, but to be honest I wasn't all that surprised when his price contracted to 5/16.00 quickly. The subsequent move to 4/15.00 was just a slice too far for me. There has to be a cut-off point with prices.

If he drifts to back out a point or so then I will play though, as he looks well handicapped on his Newmarket win last October and you can mark up his Haydock return.

He was very weak near the off that day and, in a race in which the favourite made all on the rail, he had little chance in coming from off the pace and widest off all on the track, to boot.

I also like the jockey upgrade of William Buick for Hollie Doyle but the current 4/15.00 is just fair now, and being drawn 10 of 13 is probably not ideal if Buick wanted to re-adopt the prominent tactics that suited the horse so well last season.

On the point of pace, Autumn Festival could get an uncontested lead from stall one here as there is not a lot of competition for the lead (maybe First View as well). Maybe a back-to-lay angle there.

Sandown - 14:50 - No Bet

Nothing stood out in a tricky Scurry Stakes at 14:50 though I can see why there were nibbles for Lady Hamana from 25/126.00 to 20/121.00 early on Thursday as her Cornwallis fifth last season gives her claims and the first-time cheekpieces may help here. However, Karl Burke is a modest-enough 13 from 146 with this move in recent years.

Just the two ITV bets then - Rousing Encore and Bodorgan were nearly men - and I will be settling those at Betfair SP, as usual. However, the current Betfair Sportsbook's prices are obviously fine if you want to get filled there, as I said earlier.

As for the two Racing TV races I looked at in error, no prices have surfaced anywhere as yet, so there is nothing doing there obviously.

If I see a decent price about the one I am looking to side with in the 7f handicap at 15:25. I'll tweet it on my Twitter account, @tony_calvin.

Back with Tuesday's column on Royal Ascot, either late Sunday afternoon or Monday morning.

Good luck.

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