Saturday Racing Tips: Nina The Terrier heads up trio of Tony Calvin tips at Newbury and Warwick

• TC previews Warwick Newbury and Warwick

• Happy to take on Hermes Allen at Newbury

• Step up in trip give Nina The Terrier a good chance

• One Fer Mamma will be in his element on deteriorating ground

We may as well start with the Grade 1 action on Saturday and Cheltenham would bite your hand off if you offered them a 14-runner 2m4f+ novices' hurdle at the Festival, so Newbury must be cock-a-hoop with their Challow Hurdle field.

The 60k prize money still needs to be improved upon - the five-runner mares' Listed chase at Doncaster on Thursday was worth 75k - but cash seems incidental to most owners at the top-end and we have certainly got a very good line-up.

Lay Hermes Allen in favour of Nolan's runner

Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with Stage Star and Bravemansgame and this has been the target for his Hermes Allen ever since he made all to win the Ballymore trial at Cheltenham in November.

I can fully see the form case for him - whether you agree or not, the handicapper has given him a rating of 142 for that success - but he did get it all his own way there and his opening price on Thursday morning was ludicrously short in a field full of unexposed and dangerous rivals.

The Sportsbook clearly wanted to duck him completely at 8/11 and even the biggest price of 11/8 (quickly taken) knocking around early doors on Thursday made zero appeal.

I am laying him at the current 2.1211/10 on the exchange, as the idea of having the field running for me at a touch under 10/11 appeals greatly.

I like the horse, but I hate his price.

Other than that angle, I would normally give a race like this a swerve but I am drawn to the fact that Paul Nolan is making a rare visit to the UK (outside of Cheltenham and Aintree, that is) and, more importantly, I have a lot of time for the horse he is sending over.

He is 8/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to back him there and that is obviously fine.

Second to Facile Vega on his bumper debut before going one better at Navan afterwards, something clearly went wrong when he was pulled up at the Festival and he also disappointed at Punchestown afterwards.

But he built on a comeback third to a subsequent Grade 2 winner at Wexford with a very taking win over 2m in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, really pouring it on after the last in a manner which suggested this extra 4f or so could well suit.

He fell in his only 3m point but he was in front when he came to grief two out there (so make of that what you will) and what is more pertinent is that he recorded a very good time at Fairyhouse, though admittedly the runner-up got stuffed last time and the bare form needs improving on, no doubt.

I am happy to take a chance on him to small stakes.

Gallic Geardie appeals but not at the price

Gallic Geordie won the 2m handicap chase at 13:15 off a 9lb lower mark last season and I was willing to back him to follow up if the price was right.

Unfortunately, the first firm up made him a 9/2 chance and that set the tone for disappointment (the Sportsbook agreed at 9/2), as I was looking for approaching double those odds. Probably optimistically, mind you.

The case for him is easy to make too, as he will appreciate the rain that is forecast - it is currently good to soft by the way, and one website is predicting 16mm on Saturday alone - and he certainly wasn't out of it when falling 2 out when in second place at Lingfield last time, even if the winner went on to stroll home by 10 lengths.

The stable have won with two of their last five runners, too.

If he drifts a touch then I will have a dabble, but not at his current price of around 5s on the exchange. I am probably guilty of being too price-conscious here, but that is how I operate.

Step up in trip key for Nina

Nina The Terrier is getting some of my cash at 13.012/1 or bigger in the 2m4f+ handicap hurdle at 13:50.

She was pretty much 16s across the board early on Thursday afternoon, before her price shortened just before 4pm, but I am happy with 12/1+ on the exchange (she is 10s with the Sportsbook).

I appreciate she does not have the sexy profile of a Pikar (big gossip horse, for whom the early 11/2 in the marketplace was promptly taken and he is now just 5/2) or a Lady Adare, and there are also some progressive sorts in here too, but she just looks very solid to me.

She has been running well over 2m this season, finishing fifth in a Greatwood Hurdle last time, but the step up in trip could be the key to her winning here.

Her form figures over 2m3f and above read 2132, including a course and distance second in April, and indeed her course efforts read 1F2. The fall was a last-flight exit (when basically upsides two other rivals on the front end) and she was beaten only a length off a 3lb lower mark in the spring.

She ideally wouldn't want the ground to get too testing but I'll take my chance that the weather is relatively kind. She has gone well in Haydock soft, and well enough in Sandown heavy, so she should be okay.

Reluctantly sitting out on Shanty Alley

I was really toying with Shanty Alley in the 14:25, as he made a good return after a long absence when second to Burrows Diamond at Wetherby and he scores highly in terms of trip and ground with plenty of dig in it.

He did go up 5lb for that ¾ length defeat last time - though I appreciate the third was 15 lengths adrift of him, and the winner ran a very good second at Doncaster on Thursday - and this is a deeper handicap.

A further negative is that his price was slashed after Burrows Diamond ran so well on Thursday (though some bookies were very slow to react), so I am going to sit him out now the double-figure prices (he was 12s biggest and 10s shortest on Thursday afternoon) have gone. He is just 13/2 with the Sportsbook.

Reluctantly sitting out though as, while he may have gone up 5lb for that Wetherby second, the form clearly looks strong enough and he was actually rated 7lb higher than his current mark last year after finishing second to subsequent Midlands Grand National winner Time To Get Up at Wincanton.

If he hits 10s again, I'll back him. Again, probably too price-sensitive but there you go, tip as you bet.

I don't have a betting opinion in what looks a very competitive 10-runner novices' handicap chase at 15:35, a race in which I couldn't rule out one, even the 33/1 outsider Rakhine State, who is 4lb out of the weights due to this being another one of those ridiculous limited handicap affairs.

I was surprised at One Fer Mamma's price

I was a touch surprised to see One Fer Mamma open up at 12s and 10s for Warwick's 3m2f handicap hurdle at 13:35, and he should be backed at 10/1 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

He ran well for a long way when third at Haydock on his return last month, his first start since February, and hopefully that would have put him spot on for his.

He strolled home over fences on New Year's Eve at Uttoxeter last year and he is only 4lb higher than when winning by 3 lengths over course and distance in heavy ground over hurdles in February.

If 7lb claimer Ned Fox is capable enough (and I am not pretending I know one way or the other), then I think he could be in for a very good spin on a horse who will be in his element if the ground deteriorates from the current soft ground at Warwick. One site says 9mm is coming on Saturday.

Happy to pass on Midnight Moss

Midnight Moss interested me most in the 3m veterans' chase at 14:10 as conditions will suit and he ran well enough on his return off this mark at Doncaster earlier in the month. He was beaten 4 ½ lengths there but he did pull clear of the third.

But his current price (he was cut from an opening 5s into 3s) was pretty much what I was expecting, so I can let him pass easily enough.

We also have a 1m fillies' handicap on the box from Lingfield at 14:40 but unfortunately the 10 entries from the five-day stage have become six, and it is a pretty rum race which holds no interest for me.

If you are looking for an angle, then Wadacre Grace, around a 3s poke, could be set for the lead if not blowing the start from stall six, but there are far better races to punt on than this modest fare.

Back for more on Sunday's racing, so stay tuned.