Saturday Racing Tips: Grey's Monument kicks off Tony Calvin's quintet

• Tony Calvin's five to back on Saturday
• Bet of the day runs in 13:50 at Newbury
• Poseidon can handle Cheltenham ground
• Our man can't resist backing Glen

It remains to be seen how much the rain will fall at Cheltenham - they have had 5.5mm since Thursday morning - and the as-yet unspecified watering has got into the ground, which was described as good to firm (good in places) on Friday morning, but it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't as quick as many are expecting.

That is still to be seen at the time of publishing, with more rain due, though The Hollow Ginge is ground-versatile, so he should be cool and the gang no matter how it rides.

Versatile HG has major chance

He clearly has a major chance in the 3m1f handicap at 14:05, as he is 10lb lower than when a head second in this race last season (10 lengths clear of the third) and he has an excellent record when fresh (seasonal reappearance form figures read 2131U2, with the unseat coming at the first fence in 2020).

However, to say he hasn't been missed in the market is something of an understatement - he opened up at 12/1 and 11/1 on Monday, however fanciful those prices were - and I can easily let him go unbacked and untipped at around 7/2 on the Betfair Exchange. I know he will be primed and ready here, but it is not as if he is a model of consistency.

Aintree dead-heaters Pied Piper and Knight Salute predictably dominate the market in the 14:40 but both carry 8lb penalties and I reckon the layers could get a result here.

Bella Scintilla's popularity makes sense

The betting suggests Doctor Parnassus is the most likely to spring a mini-upset but I was surprised to see Bella Scintilla open up as big as 14s with the Betfair Sportsbook on Thursday morning. She was then clipped into 11s however, and she is currently only 8s, so that juicy peach has been squeezed dry.

You can see why the money came for her. This is clearly a massive step up from her maiden hurdle win at Killarney on her stable debut at the start of the month, but she did it well there and her back form in France makes her of definite interest here getting 15lb from the big two (and the official ratings back that view up).

What worries me is that she jumped out to her right at Killarney and she doesn't want to be doing around that here.

No bet at the reduced price.

Poseidon can handle the ground

There is plenty of pace in the 1m7f199yd at 15:15, with five of the seven forward-goers, and that leads me to have a few quid on Poseidon, who opened up at 16/1 on Thursday morning, at 12/1 win-only on his first start for Gordon Elliott with the Sportsbook.

He actually has gone on in the past as well, but his two best efforts for Charles Byrnes came when he was held up, when a close second to Embittered at Killarney and when winning a valuable 2m1f Cork handicap chase last October, from a horse that went on to win a fair pot at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

He has done little since and the UK handicapper has added 4lb on to his Irish mark to take him up to 139, but he was rated on that level after Cork and his two best chase starts have come on good ground, while he also handles much deeper ground, too.

Botox tempting but keep your powder dry

I narrowed down the 18-runner Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at 15:50 to the well-handicapped, course lover Botox Has - how he only got raised 1lb for his National Spirit win is beyond me - Silver Sheen on his first run for Fergal O'Brien and the solid Didtheyleaveuoutoo, a promising fourth in the Silver Trophy. The latter pair are around 12/1 and bigger on the Betfair Exchange.

The most likely winner of the three is obviously Botox Has, winner first time up in 2019 and 2020 (fell in 2021 season-opener) but 6s is just a little bit too skinny in such a competitive 18-runner race. He is unquestionably handicapped to win on the Fontwell win, mind you.

I'll keep my powder dry, as much as I love a handicap.

I was hoping the Aidan O'Brien second-string Hispanic would be bigger than the current 5.59/2 on the Exchange in the Listed race at Doncaster at 15:00 as he looked a rocket when winning a Curragh 5f maiden in first-time blinkers, ridden with more aggression, last time and I was more than willing to take a swing at a price.

His current odds do nothing for me, up in grade - there are also at least three others who like to go forward as well, which could dampen his ardour - but if he drifts to 6/1+ or bigger I will throw a few quid at him, for sure.

The overall time of the Curragh win was nothing special, nor is the bare form, but visually he oozed power and class in the new headgear.

Promising colt will relish conditions

I am going to take a chance on another O'Brien seemingly second-tier horse in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at 15:35 in the shape of Salt Lake City at 17.016/1 or bigger. The 16/1 with the Sportsbook is obviously fine, and may be a better option, if you want to get filled straight away.

Now, the high regard in which they hold the favourite Auguste Rodin is obvious. But he is priced up on that reputation rather than his form - his Leopardstown win was not franked by the runner-up next time and, indeed, Epictetus is rated 2lb his superior and he is on the same official mark as the now-visored Holloway Boy - and he is worth taking on.

Of course, Salt Lake City is not within a stone of them but he is all about potential and he'd be half the price if you ignored his flop in the Convivial at York, a race in which the fast ground was probably the reason.

Second to subsequent National Stakes winner Al Riffa first time up, he opened his account in taking fashion on soft ground over 1m at Navan last time and this Galileo colt will relish the testing conditions here. The track got 26mm of rain on Thursday and are currently calling it soft. I'll work on the basis of heavy myself.

At the price, I'll take my chance.

Count d'Orsay is second wager in 16:10

I put up Came From The Dark ante-post at 8/1 win-only in the 5f handicap at 16:10 on Tuesday, and he remains a solid proposition betting at 7/1+ on the Betfair Exchange.

He won on his second run back after his first wind op last year, and he shaped well enough in a Listed race at Ascot last time, his first run for 133 days, after his latest breathing tweak and the handicapper dropped him a handy 2lb for it.

That is only 1lb higher than his most recent handicap win (from Garrus, who is now rated 8lb higher) at Newbury last season - with King's Lynn in third and Tis Marvellous in fourth that was actually a very hot race - and he has won a Group 3 in the meantime, so a mark of 102 underplays his ability, with Saffie Osborne taking off another 3lb.

Soft ground is no concern, and the only downside is his two poor runs at the track.

I won't go in again myself, but the 7s is still fair, and the 8/1 about Count d'Orsay, who ran well against a draw bias last time and is on a winnable mark off 87 in his favoured soft ground, with the Sportsbook (paying four places) is also very acceptable.

I was going to stick with just the ante-post tip here, as it is a sprint handicap after all. But Count d'Orsay at 8/1 each way, four places, is worth a second wager on the race.

Grey's Monument will relish Newbury test

It promises to be borderline heavy at Newbury if Friday's forecast is correct - it was called soft on Friday morning after another 6mm, with more rain due - and I really like the claims of Grey's Monument in the Horris Hill at 13:50 for that very reason.

It could be really attritional stuff there and I want a hardened, experienced horse on my side, one proven with some dig, and the progressive Grey's Monument fits the bill nicely after hosing up over 1m at York last time, his second straight win after the blinkers were applied.

That level of ability puts him on a par with any of these from a form and time perspective, and I also like the fact that he is proven over further than 7f, as this test may not be for the squeamish if the rain really does arrive in force and turns the ground heavy. He is a bet at 7.87/1 or bigger.

I think he is worth a punt at 5/1 and upwards, in truth - so the Sportsbook's 6/1 is fine if you want to play each-way - from a stable who won this with a similar sort in Pleaseletmewin, also having his seventh start, in 2016.

The sexier types like Striking Star may not look so attractive when it gets down and dirty, and Grey's Monument is my idea of the best bet of the day at the current odds.

Hamish may well take some stopping in the St Simon Stakes at 14:25, but I cannot resist a small bet on Euchen Glen at 18.017/1 or bigger. I think you will get north of 20s on the exchange, in fact, but that 16s or above is the aim here and now.

Glen gets another chance

He has little chance on his 5 ½ length fifth to the favourite at Ascot last time. I expected him to be ridden prominently there, though, and he raced in rear and never got competitive. He just plugged on late doors.

He had previously shaped well in all his races from 1m2f to 1m6f this season, and hopefully he will get a more aggressive ride here, as 1m4f on testing ground brings out the best in him.

Indeed, he won this race in heavy ground two years ago and hopefully the 9yo still has one big run in him.

I am paying to find out, anyway and may also look to back him without the favourite on the day.

Good luck.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 235

Returns: 329.6pts

P/L: +94.6

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1