Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Dark horse at Donny this Saturday

• Keep an eye on The Hollow Ginge at Cheltenham
• Expect soft ground at Doncaster
• Back Came From The Dark @ 9.08/1

I was surprised to see the Cheltenham going is currently good to firm (good in places) for their season-opening two-day fixture starting on Friday, so I bet the track are praying that some of the forecasts of rain for Wednesday onwards materialise.

Most forecasters say there will be a lot of rain arriving, and one has 15mm on that day alone, and we all want to see nature deciding the ground and not the clerks. I bet the clerks do, too.

I don't think the course can water anyway, as the weather is also unsettled from Thursday onwards too, so maybe we will get ground on the easy side come Friday and the weekend and all will be hunky dorey.

However, if the rain doesn't arrive, then expect the fields to be decimated by a quick surface. It is very tricky for ante-post punters at this stage, then.

Rivals to clash again on Saturday

The Betfair Sportsbook have priced up all nine weekend ITV races, and Cheltenham are responsible for four of those.

The highlight of the card could be a clash between Aintree dead-heaters Pied Piper and Knight Salute in the 2m hurdle at 14:40 - 11/8 plays 13/8 there - but a fair few could give them something to think about if they rock up.

The three handicaps on the ITV coverage will probably be of more interest to me, and we didn't have to wait long for the first Pertemps qualifier of the season, with 32 entries for the 3m handicap hurdle at 15:50. Horses must now finish in the first four to qualify, so hopefully that will improve competitiveness.

The problem about betting at Cheltenham here and now - in addition to the question mark about the ground - is we don't know how many of the Irish entries on the card will come and they are set to have a big bearing on the races of they do.

I am happy to leave Cheltenham alone as a result, although The Hollow Ginge has an obvious chance in the 3m1f handicap chase at 14:05, for which he is priced up at 6/1.

He is ground-versatile, maybe best on soft but boasting a head second to Definite Plan (also in here) in this race on good ground last season.

And he tends to excel when fresh too, with his falling handicap mark another huge plus.

However, all these positives look factored into his current price, as he was trimmed in from 7s with the Sportsbook on Monday (while he actually opened up at 12/1 and 11/1 elsewhere in an act of stark generosity).

His price has gone to a large extent then, so I can't tip him now, but I could revisit his chances on Thursday.

Expect soft ground at Doncaster

There were 44 in Doncaster's Group 1 Vertem Futurity before Monday's five-day stage. I lost count how many of those were trained by Aidan O'Brien, and he still has eight of the 17 left.

There is a fair but of rain due from Wednesday onwards at Donny. So as it is currently good to soft (soft in places) there, I think it is fair to proceed on the basis of soft ground for the weekend, with one site suggesting 11m will land in midweek. That makes punting a touch easier here.

However, Aidan O'Brien's numerical dominance clearly makes this a tricky race to pick apart, though the layers are confident Auguste Rodin is his number one - the Sportsbook make him 6/5 - and will make the journey.

Given that the stable apparently only decide weekend running plans after the Wednesday work morning, good luck if you getting involved in the favourite at this stage - I should say there is also a Betfair Exchange market on the race - though on the other hand they have won three of the last five renewals of the race with the market leader (they didn't have a runner in 2020).

Keep an eye out for doubly-declared horses though. For example, the second favourite Epictetus is also in the Horris Hill at Newbury, as is Captain Wierzba.

The other ITV races from Doncaster are another juvenile contest and a 5f handicap - not my ideal punting mediums, though I am surprised to see only 17 in the latter race at the five-day stage - so I was hoping Newbury could throw up a long-range punt.

But before then I thought I would give the sprint handicap another look, given the manageable field size, and I am glad I did.

Back Came From The Dark at 8/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I don't know if he is an intended runner but this is his only weekend entry, so I am willing to risk him.

I was actually going to tip him in a Listed race at Ascot earlier in the month, but the price on him disappeared (he was originally priced up at 20s) and I pulled the selection late doors.

I am glad I did as he only finished eighth of 10 there at odds of 9/1, but he actually shaped very promisingly after a 133-day break that day (and after having his second wind op), travelling well in rear but getting tired after making his move towards the outside.

He was beaten just over 3 lengths there though, and the handicapper was kind in dropping him 2lb for it.

Trainer Ed Walker, among the winners this week, said in his Weekender column that he was really pleased by the performance considering he was a bit fresh off his break, and bullishly added:

"He'll take all the beating in Listed grade next time."

Well more foolish, than bullish, considering he didn't have a clue about the future opposition but he undoubtedly has a big claim off 102 in this 0-105 handicap!

One negative is he has not performed to his best in two starts at Doncaster but he will love the ground, won second time back after his first wind op, and he is just 1lb higher than when beating Garrus in a Newbury handicap last season. And he won a Group 3 afterwards, too.

I am happy to have a small-stakes win-only bet at 8/1 in 16:10 at Doncaster. Hopefully, he turns up and gives us a run for our money.

Newbury is currently good to soft (soft in places) and there is around 6mm forecast this week from the site I primarily use, so that description may well hold for the start of their two-day meeting on Friday.

I wouldn't touch Epictetus at 9/4 in the Horris Hill, as I have already pointed out he is also in the Vertem, but Hamish looks solid enough, if easy to resist, at 5/4 in the St Simon Stakes. Euchen Glen interested me, but not at the Sportsbook's 12/1.

We also have ITV action from Aintree and Wincanton on Sunday - they really do excel in their workload - but I will leave those races alone for now.

Good luck.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 235

Returns: 329.6pts

P/L: +94.6

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1