Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says 29/1 Thunder can cause a Scottish National storm

• Tony finds four to play on a big Saturday

• Ayr bets include a huge priced play in the Scottish National

• Two big odds bets run in same race at Newbury

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I am going to be more reluctant to back and tip on bad ground on the Flat this season, as you lose track of the number of times trainers of horses with heavy ground form come out after a disappointment in deep going and say they didn't handle it.

There are just certain conditions that even confirmed slop merchants don't like.

Thankfully, it doesn't look like Newbury will be that bad on Saturday, even though they had 1.5mm on Thursday and maybe another 4mm may arrive through Friday.

Earlier in the week, a pretty poor forecast from midweek onwards suggested we could be looking at heavy ground but it was soft (good to soft in places) for the start of their two-day meeting on Friday and, while there is that rain about, the amounts have been considerably downgraded by the weather boffins.

Famous last words and all that - and the forecast did seem to be worsening at 10.30am on Friday - but let's proceed on the basis of soft ground at The Racecourse Newbury.

Beware odds-on favourite in the Greenham

Newbury, 14:40

The classy ITV action at Newbury isn't really my bag, if truth to be told, with three of the four races being Group contests, and two of those concern returning 3yos in the Fred Darling and the Greenham, in tiring ground. Fitness will be key.

For me they are proper watch-not-bet races, though I imagine the money buyers (it sends shudders down the spine just writing that after Thursday night shenanigans at Chelmsford, let alone doing it) could be out in force to back the Dewhurst winner Chaldean at the Sportsbook's 8/15 (currently 1.774/5 on the exchange) in the Greenham at 14:40.

You'd be disappointed if he is beaten, given he has 9lb and more in hand of these on his juvenile form, but we don't know his state of readiness - this is a trial, after all, and not D-Day - and there are some dangerous floaters in here, most obviously 12/1 poke Theoryofeverything.

Now, we know this regally bred colt - he is by Frankel out of the QEII winner Persuasion, so he was relatively cheap at 325,000 guineas as a yearling (as those things go anyway) - is fit as he absolutely danced in on soft ground over 7f at Doncaster earlier in the month and looked a pretty exciting prospect.

It is difficult putting context on post-race comments, especially when you didn't see the interview itself, but Rab Havlin's immediate observation that "let's hope that's not his be all and end all" could be read two ways.

However, it is not a race I can have a bet in (for me anyway), though the 110-rated juvenile Charyn (Chaldean is 119) may be the solid (ish) each-way play for many in here at the Sportsbook's stand-out 18/1, even if he is unproven over 7f.

No bet in the Fred Darling

Newbury, 14:05

The 1,000 Guineas trial, the Fred Darling at 14:05, certainly lacks an overwhelming stand-out from a form perspective, though Swingalong is undoubtedly the standard-setter after her Lowther win and her four-length fourth in the Cheveley Park.

She is bred to get at least 7f but she is pacey and the trip is a question mark on the ground. She may well be a sprinter.

Regular readers of this column know my MO with Amo Racing horses by now - and that is I give them the utmost of respect first time up, which is why it was agonising to pick the wrong filly in the Nell Gwyn on Thursday, and for some reason I also ignored their Craven winner Indestructible, having his first start for Karl Burke after being switched from the luckless Michael O'Callaghan - and their ridiculous trainer merry-go-round sees Roger Varian also take over Olivia Maralda from O'Callaghan.

The form this filly showed last season definitely makes her of interest here, most obviously her ¾ -length second to Meditate in the Debutante Stakes over 7f, but this will be the softest ground she has faced.

In short, with doubts about the form horses and four unbeaten once-raced winners in here - it appears that Yarmouth winner Bridestones has a big reputation - plus others of note like course winner Magical Sunset (another Amo horse, and in many ways maybe the most solid proposition in here, being proven over the trip, course and ground) , it is not a race I want to be playing in.

Remarquee was the shortener on Friday morning after being up by ATR's Hugh Taylor.

Would like eight runners before betting in opener

Newbury, 13:30

The Amo ammo is represented by Mojo Star in the opener at 13:30 and, if all eight stand their ground, he is the obvious each-way alternative to Hurricane Lane, having chased him home in the St Leger in 2021 and he also ran a cracker when second Kyprios in the Gold Cup last season.

Too obvious it seems, as he opened at 11/2 on Thursday, and is now into 9/2.

Hurricane Lane is definitely the one to beat on his 2021 form but it takes some faith to back him at odds-on after a blank 2022 and, in addition to the threat posed by Mojo Star, Lone Eagle is clearly not a no-hoper.

Marc Chan appears to have bought into the horse, so Frankie Dettori was always going to ride him given his association with the owner, and he is definitely of interest, having his first start for Ralph Beckett and with blinkers applied (the trainer is 33 from 203 with this angle since 2009).

If they work, and Ralph can get him back in the same nick as he was when he finished a neck second to Hurricane Lane in the 2021 Irish Derby - there are a lot of form-lines tying up here, none of them really pointing to backing the favourite at odds-on after his 2022 exploits - then 12/1 each way appears very good business.

However, I won't be backing him, or Mojo Star, until I see all eight going to post on Saturday, so no bet for now. I want three places on my side here, as Israr and Lone Eagle's stablemate Max Vega are players, too.

Can Beckett get a tune out of Hendrix this time?

Newbury, 15:15 - Back Jimi Hendrix and Great Max

Beckett also puts blinkers on his Lincoln flop Jimi Hendrix and I am willing to back him, to small money, win-only to bounce back at 13.012/1 or bigger in the Spring Cup at 15:15.

I may be tossing away the cash as William Haggas' Lattam could still be thrown in here after being raised 5lb for his Irish Lincoln win - he may have edged home by a short-head but he overcame all kinds of grief to get up on the line there - but Jimi Hendrix's wheels were spinning soon after the start on bottomless ground at Donny and I am ignoring the run.

The handicapper didn't, dropping him 2lb for it, and that makes him fairly handicapped off 94 here on the pick of his 3yo form.

Beckett was making very bullish (if private) noises about how this horse was working in the lead-up to Doncaster - there was talk of him kicking Group horses out of the way on the gallops - and hopefully headgear and slightly better ground (it will be soft, which he has won on) will see him deliver, albeit belatedly.

Looking back on the Lincoln run, he at least tried to dog it out on the ground in the closing stages, but he was simply floundering, lurching this way and that. He is 11/1 with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places.

"Amo Watch" sees Great Max having his first start for Alice Haynes (this is yet another switcher from O'Callaghan) off an exploitable mark of 99, and he is my second bet in the race at 26.025/1 or bigger, despite that hulking presence of Lattam. He is also 25/1 with the Sportsbook.

A winner here at two when trained by Michael Bell, after which he ran third in soft ground in the Chesham, he is well-treated if Haynes can re-light the fire and she is certainly a very capable young trainer, with two wins for the owner already this season. He started last season off 106.

Two to consider in opening races at Ayr

The ground at Ayr was good to soft (good in places) for the start of their two-day meeting on Friday - they have been "watering to maintain" there but no-one has any idea of how much has gone on - so we have "no excuses" conditions.

There are some competitive, deep fields in the five ITV races but I couldn't see many firm bets, which surprised me.

Ayr, 13:15

Frere D'Armes is the predictable favourite at around the 2/1 mark on the exchange (was 11/4 in places on Thursday) in the opening 2m handicap at 13:15, and I can definitely see him winning this.

He ran well against a next-time-out winner at Ascot last time, his first start since November, and the 6yo looks like the coming force in here.

I couldn't put you off him, but I'll stop just short of a tip, not least because when I looked at the race afresh on Friday morning before filing, I decided the first-time tongue-tie was a little niggle for me (hints at a wind issue) if I was considering playing at a short price.

Ayr, 13:50

I like the look of another shortie City Chief in the 3m handicap chase at 13:50 as, like Frere D'Armes, he is the youngest horse in the race as a 6yo and he looks to be on a very fair mark.

I don't know whether it was by accident or design but he comes here a fresh horse after missing Cheltenham and Aintree, as we haven't seen him since he won the Towton in February - and that is a concern of sorts, I suppose, as you always have to look for the downsides when playing at the top end of the market - but he is fairly weighted on his form to date and this course winner has the potential to rate higher than 142.

Again, I won't put him up as a bet, as that absence worries me, but I don't think his price around 9/4 on the exchange is too bad if indeed this was a planned route for him since Wetherby.

Anna appeals in Scottish Champion Hurdle

Ayr, 14:25 - Back Anna Bunina

I thought the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 14:25 was an exceptionally tricky handicap to call , with all 12 having their chance, and I was most tempted by Anna Bunina.

However, in John McConnell, we trust, so I am going to have a small win-only bet at 10.09/1 or bigger on the exchange. I think she may drift but 9/1 and upwards is fine.

Obviously, the mare has history in this race (and an excellent one at that), having finished second in this race in 2021 before going one better last year, and she ran perfectly well in the County Hurdle last time, beaten just 7 lengths, especially as the soft ground may not have been ideal for her there and she may also have been disadvantaged by racing towards the middle of the track.

This easier track will suit her better - I am not sure Cheltenham is her track - and Ben Harvey looks well worth his 5lb claim.

Gino of most appeal in the 15:00

Ayr, 15:00

I don't have a betting opinion in the 2m4f novices' chase at 15:00, though obviously Balco Coastal is the horse to beat if reproducing his Sandown second to Gerri Colombe.

He ran no kind of race at Cheltenham and nor did Datsalrightgino in the Plate, a race in which he was pulled up and connections bizarrely blamed the soft ground, which he has excellent form on.

Perhaps they have had a re-think since and they have the ditched the cheekpieces he wore for the first time there.

Given his earlier exploits, I'd fancy him more at 9/2 than the favourite Balco Coastal at 7/4, but there is no need to force a bet with horses coming off very poor runs at the end of the season.

29/1 on Thunder sounds good

The Scottish Grand National - Ayr, 15:35 - Back Mighty Thunder

We will finish with the biggest betting race of the day at 15:35, and I am going to take a chance with Mighty Thunder at 30.029/1 or bigger on the Exchange.

He will bring the Ayr house down if he provides another National winner for Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore. Forget Jermaine Jenas, Great British Racing, sign these two up.

Of course, they may do it with the shorter-priced Your Own Story, as that one has a fair chance, too,

Clearly, there are negatives about Mighty Thunder.

He is a 10yo now, he has hardly been ripping it up of late and he is also 3lb out of the handicap - Nicky Henderson is off the stable's Christmas card list for running Dusart - but highly capable (or so I am told) 5lb claimer Patrick Wadge negates that to a fair degree, and the handicapper has been very kind to the horse.

He has dropped him 14lb for three runs this season , despite him showing a touch more at Kelso last month, and an effective mark of 128 here leaves him 16lb lower than when winning this race in 2021.

It wouldn't be the greatest surprise in the world had the trainer been working backwards from this race all season and Lucky Lucinda was only two whiskers away from coming away from Aintree with four winners after the near-misses of Ahoy Senor and Douglas Talking, allied to the victories of Corach Rambler and Apple Away.

I should point out there has been a move for Manofthepeople in the past 24 hours and he does look a proper plot after just the three chase starts and with seemingly stamina to burn.

However, McConnell and Russell did me proud at Aintree last Friday and let's hope they can repeat the feat eight days on.

Good luck.