Thursday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin will be Dancing with a Magic performance at Newmarket

• Find out Tony's three selections for Thursday's action

• Mare's mark continues to tumble

• Outsider has potential in the Craven Stakes

Cheekpieces the ideal solution

Newmarket, 13:50

I always find it more than curious that ITV put newcomers' races on their live schedule, such as the Brocklesby last month, and that is again the case when they broadcast the Wood Ditton at 14:25 on Thursday.

Good luck finding the winner of that nine-runner race for unraced 3yos - maybe the pedigree hounds and paddock judges can help you there - but in their own way 3yo handicaps at this time of the year can be just as hard to decipher, so I initially didn't have a betting view in the opener at 13:50 either.

The bookmakers' starting point in these handicaps is usually to fight shy of the William Haggas representative and Pinafore is certainly a likely lass but she certainly isn't alone in having an attractive, lightly-raced profile.

In fact, she was only joint-third in the betting at 13/2 when the Sportsbook opened their market on Tuesday.

I can definitely see why George Boughey has put cheekpieces on California Gem as she looked a bit wayward when only narrowly beaten off this mark at Pontefract on her return.

Boughey is a modest eight from 56 with this option but, interestingly, California Gem's full sister Balqaa won in first-time pieces at Newcastle last year and, the more I looked at her claims, the more I warmed to her.

She is obviously race-fit and her juvenile form over 6f with cut in the ground, which included an 80/1 second of 27 to the form horse Amichi in a valuable auction race here in October, reads well.

She has a lot going for her and I am going to back her at 10.09/1 or bigger on the exchange. She is also 10.09/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook, who are paying four places, so back her there if you so wish. In fact, do so, but win-only.

King's Crown was also considered at a price (he opened up as the 50/1 outsider with the Sportsbook on Tuesday, and that remains the best price in the betting village - shades of Big Mac terminology there) off a falling handicap mark of 83 as that looks very fair on his July Stakes run, though of course he didn't reproduce that effort thereafter.

Outsiders of interest in the Abernant

The next race up is the Wood Ditton - I am guessing all nine will look well if it is sunny, as if forecast for Newmarket on Thursday afternoon - and I didn't expect the betting for the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at 15:00 to throw up any surprises. And it duly obliged.

Obviously, Creative Force and last season's narrow runner-up Garrus are the form horses, given their Group 1 exploits, but Silky Wilkie at 16/1 could be a dangerous improving floater after a stunning handicap win off a mark of 99 at Musselburgh last time and 20/1 poke Saint Lawrence could be even more interesting now he has been gelded.

Roger Varian knows the family well and they are presumably all a bit quirky as he also gelded the full brother Russet Gold (a 3yo this year) and the half-brother Lord Paramount (won afterwards), while Roger Charlton also reached for the gardening shears for another sibling, Aspirant, who won first time up after his cojones fell by the wayside.

I don't know why stumbled across that eyewatering line of thought, but Saint Lawrence has always threatened to be a good sprinter and that could be the making of him.

In fact, I nearly tipped him each-way on the gelding op angle alone, though I will probably throw a few quid at him by way of sympathy.

Incidentally, the Sportsbook opened Creative Force at 5/4, and I thought that was plenty short enough, given that bigger prizes will presumably be targeted down the line than this relatively lowly Group 3. He trades at 11/8+ on the exchange.

Magic may just happen

The Craven - Newmarket, 15:35

I know this is classic aftertiming and I'll get pelters, but I was surprised to see Godolphin's Naval Power confirmed for the Craven on Tuesday as the scurrilous, often inaccurate, racing gossip grapevine had him down as lame last weekend (I am only passing on what I heard last week), but he is certainly out now as he has been withdrawn after being cast in his box on Wednesday morning.

You can make a case for all seven runners at their respective prices, which normally means I am out for betting purposes, but perhaps Dancing Magic is not getting the love his ability deserves.

In fact, he plainly isn't.

It's a bit of a cliché, but the layers do tend to underestimate the smaller yards in these races, though Roger Teal is a Group 1-winning trainer and saddled Tip Two Win to finish second to Saxon Warrior in the 2018 2,000 Guineas so he shouldn't be necessarily be classed as such, and perhaps the fact that Dancing Magic is a maiden is also masking his chance here.

His best effort was his fourth in the Autumn Stakes here but he didn't run at all badly when fourth in Doncaster's Group 1 on heavy on his final start, especially as he raced, and stayed, on the far side, while the first three home came stands' side. You can definitely mark up that nine-length fourth, then.

He has only 4lb to find with the 5/4 favourite Mysterious Night (and 5lb with The Foxes, who isn't a bad price at around 4s on the exchange) and the Sportsbook's 22/1 looks far, far too dismissive.

Back him win-only there. 16/1 and upwards there (and on the exchange) will be fine, as the 22s will surely come under immediate pressure. I'll settle at 18/1 (current exchange price) if he wins, as that is fair, with 20/1 and 18/1 being available elsewhere as this column goes live.

Lower mark catches the eye at Cheltenham

Cheltenham, 13:30

ITV couldn't have picked a harder race to solve at Cheltenham than the 18-runner mares' handicap hurdle final at 13:30 and it was not a job that I was willing to take on from a betting perspective when I first looked at the race.

However, I quite like the fact that Terresita has been coming steadily down the weights while running well and perhaps this is D-Day for her following her third to Dollar Bae in a qualifier at Chepstow last time, a race in which she traded at 1.84/5 in running when going best 2 out. The kitchen sink certainly wasn't thrown at her.

Down to a mark of 114, 8lb lower than at the start of the season, she is worth a small wager at 15.014/1 or bigger - she is pretty much 16/1 across the board on Oddschecker, so 14/1+ should be easily attainable - though the form of the Lucy Wadham yard is a concern of sorts and I'd rather not see any more watering for a horse that loves good ground, thank you.

It is not on ITV, but keep an eye out on Ahorsewithnoname in the 14:40, as she ran a lot better than it appears here last month. The opening 13/2 with one firm grabbed my attention.

Good luck.