Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Back 16/1 & 22/1 each-way shots in Newbury's Super Sprint

• Draw and pace angles analysed ahead of Weatherbys Super Sprint 

• Balding form strong at Newbury this season

• Alan Dudman delivers his 1-2-3-4 verdict for Newbury's big juvenile race on ITV 

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A super short favourite for Super Sprint

The lure of 122 thousand sheets has proved too much and Glorious Goodwood's Molecomb loss is Newbury's gain with Royal Ascot winner Havana Hurricane at a completely unbackable 1/12.00 shot for Saturday's big juvenile race.

Sure, a winner is a winner, but backing at that sort of price in what essentially could be a lottery is not something I am in the habit of doing, and I am sure the clued-up readers out there and more so than me will find a better evens shot elsewhere.

Eve Johnson-Houghton is a trainer who consistently does well with juveniles although her Chipotle was beaten in this race when a 15/82.88 market leader and could only finish ninth.

Impact of the draw for Saturday

Havana Hurricane is drawn in nine and the evidence of the stall positions since 2015, ideally you'd want higher.

Here are the successful gate positions from 2015 onwards: 15, 13, 13, 19, 25, 16, 15, 21, 18 and 10.

Prominent in the betting is also Our Cody for trainer Richard Hughes, who was a successful rider in the race on Tiggy Wiggy and Monsieur Chevalier, but is another drawn in single digits in seven. He did make the running to win at Windsor and seemed to improve for the quicker going to score by three lengths.

Good karma for each-way bet? 

With four places on offer each-way on the Sportsbook, it might be the sort of race to throw up a big priced placed horse. It's just finding that angle...

Irish Fighter's price from 20/121.00 into 12/113.00 has gone a bit and is another Windsor winning alumni by making the running on quick ground and on draw history, you'd have to be happy with stall 20, especially as one of the backers at the bigger price, which for now seems one of those mythical prices that all the after-timers possess.

Rod Millman's Anthelia brings to the table a good level of form and with a rating of 94, it's easy to understand why she's so prominent in the market at 15/44.75.

Richard Hannon is mob-handed with three in the race and his father Richard senior was a dominant force in this for years with seven wins that was all started by Lyric Fantasy with the famous head-bobber Michael "Mouse" Roberts on.

Raakeb is an 11/112.00 poke and he's been in deep this season already - beaten nearly six lengths by juvenile monster Gstaad in the Coventry Stakes and fifth of seven in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes and was a huge price for both.

Kamakameleon for in-form Dylan Cunha looks overpriced at 16/117.00 and was fifth in the Windsor Castle behind Havana Hurricane - and a good response with the headgear on as he was too keen in the previous Sandown race.

Considering it was rattling fast ground at Ascot, he handled it well and while possibly flattered as one of the winning far side group, good to firm ground looks his bag as he won at Doncaster earlier this season on good to firm and the race earned A+ on the ATR sectionals.

With four places, he's one to keep with at 16s.

Pace map and who makes the running

Front runners:

Our Cody, Irish Fighter, Ali Shuffle, Logi Bear, Artista

Prominent racers:

Anthelia, Cotai Belle, Gaga Mate, Ali Shuffle, Kamakameleon, Son Of Sarabi, Logi Bear, Sands Of Spain.

Mid-division:

Raakeb?

Held-up:

Havana Hurricane, Ardisia, Raakeb?

Trainer form

Eve Johnson-Houghton: 4-26 in two weeks at 15% and and 9-55 at 16% with turf two-year-olds this season.
Rod Millman: 5-19 in two weeks at 26% and 4-16 at 25% with turf two-year-olds.
Karl Burke: 9-41 in two weeks at 22% and 27-84 at 32% with turf two-year-olds.
Richard Hannon: 7-49 at 14% last two weeks and 12-77 at 16% with turf two-year-olds.
Richard Fahey: 5-54 at 9% in last two weeks and 5-62 at 8% with turf two-year-olds.
Richard Hughes: 3-22 at 14% last two weeks and 7-42 at 17% with turf two-year-olds.
Johnny Portman: 5-14 at 36% last two weeks and 4-20 at 20% with turf two-year-olds.
Andrew Balding: 11-57 at 19% last two weeks and 8-42 at 19% with turf two-year-olds.

Portman the star man at Newbury

From those trainer stats above, Johnny Portman is performing well and is also 10-35 in the last month and 4-14 at Newbury this season. His Son Of Sarabi was beaten off 76 in a York Nursery last time, his first run since being gelded. It will need a miracle-like leap in form to be a player here and is priced accordingly at 40/1 but Portman is on a good run.

Andrew Balding's Sands Of Spain's two wins (from three) have been at stiff tracks at Carlisle and most latterly Newcastle.

Balding is also the top trainer at Newbury this season - one place above Portman with 9-34 at 27% and a massive +34.00 return to level stakes.

There's a possibility with a strongly-run race according to the pace map above, that Sands Of Spain will see out the 5f at Newbury strongly.

He landed a valuable Newcastle novice last time and his jockey PJ McDonald commented that he was still green in the finish. It certainly was evident on the replay as once he accelerated with pressure from the jockey, he veered across to his left. However, that might be more greenness as McDonald said he has a good mind.

Sands Of Spain is only rated 84 so is well shy of what Havana Hurricane has achieved, but he could be an interesting 22/123.00 shot with his ability to see out a strong 5f.

Alan Dudman's Weatherbys Super Sprint 1-2-3-4 Verdict

I like Kamakameleon as an each-way shot here at 16/117.00 with the four places for Cunha who is operating at a 33% strike-rate in the last two weeks with 6-18. Andrew Balding's record at Newbury combined with Sands Of Spain's Newcastle win, I am tempted to throw him in here at 22/123.00 as another each-way shot too with the four places. 

Raakeb with more established form is also worth considering from stall eight purely on his Coventry Stakes run behind that Gstaad beast.

Havana Hurricane on form and ratings is there to win, but I'd rather have the each-way darts at the two bigger prices as the bet.

1) Havana Hurricane
2) Kamakameleon
3) Sands Of Spain
4) Raakeb

Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here