Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's trio of fresh bets for Ascot and Wetherby

• Testing conditions expected at both Ascot and Wetherby

• Tony has a trio of fresh tips at 10/111.00, 10/111.00 & 25/126.00

• Both ante-post tips set to race and have shortened in price

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It is going to be heavy ground and, wait for that oft-used phrase, possibly even borderline raceable at Wetherby and Ascot if the current forecast worsens - we lost Down Royal on Wednesday - so it is probably not a day to get the big punting stick out.

Even some established mudlarks may not go on the ground if more rain than expected lands from Friday morning onwards into Saturday race-time, so fingers crossed the cards survive the weather.

Thankfully, both of my ante-post recommendations from earlier in the week were confirmed at 10am on Thursday, and I am going to kick off this column looking at Ascot's card as I have my doubts whether Wetherby will pull through after they lost their Friday meeting after a 7am inspection due to standing water on the track. Friday is dry there but they are due another 5mm on Saturday.

By the way, the going stick suggests it is much deeper on the hurdles track at Ascot. They are currently soft on the chase track, with soft, heavy in places, on the hurdles, with the course predicting another 7-12mm before racing on Saturday.

One last word before I start. I recorded the Racing Only Bettor podcast at 2.45pm on Thursday, so some of my selections on there have shortened since, but I'll mention those in passing.

Ascot - 13:30: No Bet

Right, the ITV action there kicks off with the 2m3f novices' handicap chase at 13:30, and that race has completely turned on its' head from the five-day stage, and not because the field has trimmed down from 18 to nine.

Thre weights have gone 13lb at the overnight stage, which means Jipcot, who was 14lb out of the handicap on Monday, can race only 1lb wrong here now.

And considering his deep ground form in France, that he started his UK career in the Triumph Hurdle and he didn't shape too badly on his recent chasing debut at Carlisle, then he has his chance off an effective mark of 119. He is also getting a 9lb age allowance from the others.

I deliberated long and hard as to whether tip Sir Pyscho at 25/126.00 on Tuesday - the horse is very well handicapped off 127 on his 2020 hurdling back form and makes his debut for Harry Derham - and I probably wish I had from a price perspective, as he is now just 12/113.00.

The big question mark with him is his jumping, though, so perhaps caution was the better part of valour there.

Hermino AA (we don't pronounce the AA as it just denotes an Anglo-Arabian pedigree) was 20/121.00 on Tuesday and he is now a quarter of the price at 5s - it would have been a very lightly-traded and reactive market, though - which is very understandable on Gary Moore's record in the race alone, let alone the attractive profile of the horse himself.

Moore targets this meeting every year, and he won this race with Nassalam in 2021 and Benatar in 2017, as well as somehow getting Editeur Du Gite beaten off a mere 120 in 2020.

In summary though, I can see the case for too many in here not get involved at the current prices, including the initial 20/121.00 outsider of the part, and subsequently punted into 12/113.00, Twinjets. Dan "Rick Waller" Barber is responsible for that move.

I could make a cogent case for all nine runners, with perhaps Jipcot at being top of the list around around 9s on the exchange.

Ascot - 14:05: No Bet

I thought the 2m1f handicap chase at 14:05 was equally difficult to call, and I am not betting here. At the moment at least.

I have five of the 10 being potential front-runners in here and that could suit 6/17.00 poke Saint Segal, whose trainer took this race with the promoted Monsieur Le Coq (that horse always remind me of Hugh Cahill) in 2021.

The 5yo, one of three in here to have had a wind op since we last saw them (the others being Funambule Sivola and Quel Destin), is set to rate higher than his current mark this season but I am not certain ground this deep is certain to suit. Timeform called it heavy when he was a disappointing fourth to Red Rookie in March.

Ascot - 14:40: No Bet

I am not sure if ITV are going to show the novices' hurdle at 14:40 - they may now that Down Royal has been abandoned - but it is worth a watch regardless on Sky Sports Racing as it could be a very informative race.

Altior won this race in 2015 and it is perhaps significant that Nico de Boinville has his only Ascot ride on Jango Baie when his regular mount, Luccia, goes for a far more prestigious contest at Wetherby (weather permitting). However, it is obviously a race full of unknowns.

Ascot - 15:15: Back Bad

I was waiting for the betting to come back up for the 1m7f152yd handicap hurdle at 15:15 - though the Sportsbook didn't price this at the five-day stage - fully expecting Bad to be ducked by the layers, as the 4yo does have a rather obvious profile.

He was the one of the buzz horses of the Cheltenham Festival, going off at 5/16.00 for the Boodles off a mark 126, and he ran well enough to a point there before weakening into midfield (I have no idea if a lost shoe contributed to that).

He then came out and ran over this course and distance, and I actually thought he shaped pretty well off 124, doing all his best work late on. on good to soft ground.

He is down to 122 on much deeper going - Timeform agreed with the official going description of heavy when he won his final race in France in 2022 - and carrying just 10st 8lb could be a plus in these conditions, as apparently he isn't the biggest.

Oh, sorry, what about the price?

He surprisingly opened at 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook when I was expecting around half that. Much bigger than I thought, so I napped him on the ROB podcast on Thursday.

He has been trimmed into 10/111.00 since, which is slightly frustrating as he is a tough bigger elsewhere, but he remains a bet for me at that price or a similarly price on the exchange. He has to be if I was expecting single-figures. He is currently 11.521/2 on the exchange as this goes live.

It's another very competitive race but I thought Thereisnodoubt was going to be underplayed in the betting, for all he is a 10yo vulnerable off his mark and who will get competition on the front end.

This three-time heavy ground winner will love the conditions, is race-fit, and has the assistance of 7lb claimer Conner McCann (son of Terry, I assume) to help lessen the weight burden, and he is an impressive 6 from 25 in his career.

I wanted bigger than the Sportsbook's 14s about him though, as I wanted to back him each way. I suspect the win-only price on the exchange will be upwards of 20s.

Our Champ is obviously the key to the race, as he danced up at Cheltenham last week, and an 11lb rise could have been harsher. However, whether this much deeper ground is ideal for him is debatable.

Ascot - 15:45: Zhiguli advised ante-post

In the 15:45, I stuck up Zhiguli at 20/121.00 win-only on Tuesday and he is probably the right price at 16/117.00 now, especially as I thought the race would cut up more than it has.

However, I am not in the least bit surprised - as I said on the podcast - that the top two in the betting, 3/14.00 Monbeg Genius and 5/16.00 Beauport, were also confirmed at 10am on Friday morning for the Charlie Parker at Carlisle on Sunday, given the weather, to give them options.

That could be a very tempting prize for a small field and a very winnable 17k first prize now The Real Whacker doesn't run.

Anyway, back to Zhiguli, who is only 2lb higher than when winning over 2m4f at Sandown on soft ground in March.

He is a proper mudlark who stays 3m - his best effort probably came in a heavy ground Lingfield win in 2022, though I accept he may be better at 2m4f - and he has won first time up in the past.

Jockey bookings suggest he is the stable second strong behind Moore's 2021 winner Larry - the trainer also won this race in 2018 and 2016 - but that doesn't bother me.

Timeform have his heavy ground form figures since 2020, putting aside his first year of racing, as 12113, which is obviously encouraging if we get a lot more rain.

Far less impressive is his record of 0 from 5 at Ascot, but hopefully he will run well nonetheless. I am not pressing up given the strength of the field as it stands and I fully appreciate he meets a classy calibre of opposition, albeit he is getting plenty of weight.

And, to be honest, I can see him starting at 21.020/1 and upwards on the exchange in this line-up.

If there is a bet at the current prices I actually think it could be his stablemate Larry, who not only won this race in 2021 but also won by 6 lengths here first time up last season off just a 3lb lower mark than this.

He looks a bit too big at the current 14.013/1 on the lightly-traded exchange market.

Wetherby - 15:00: No Bet

Over to Wetherby, where they clearly can't take much more rain with the drainage system backed up.

Hopefully, all is okay for Saturday and Bravemansgame - the forecast is for a dry Friday, with rain returning tomorrow - will handle the ground and set himself nicely for a possible tilt at the Betfair Chase later this month by winning the Charlie Hall at 15:00.

The ground will probably be far from ideal for him first time up - his best efforts have come on what Timeform called good to soft when he won the King George and was second in the Gold Cup - but it will be disappointing if he can't see off these.

I'm not going to have a bet in the race but I certainly wouldn't be laying the favourite at the current 1.774/5 on the exchange, for all the ground concerns.

Wetherby - 13:50: Stainsby Girl advised ante-post

Stainsby Girl's all-the-way Newcastle handicap win off 133 in heavy ground in March. in a good time in a race that worked out very well, puts her in with every form chance here, and she won first time up in 2020 and 2022, so that is why I put her up at 14/115.00 win-only on Tuesday for the mares' hurdle at 13:50.

That, and the fact that the horse's form figures on heavy are also a bet-inducing 2212151.

However, I am not inclined to go in again now she is around half the price.

Firstly, I was hoping that at least one of the top three in the market would be a no-show, and they aren't, and, secondly, two of those (You Wear It Well and Kateira) could well take her on for the lead.

And, thirdly, Kit Alexander can't claim his usual 5lb because of the nature of the race.

I am still hopeful, but not confident. If it really is nearly unraceable, then I'd be happy enough, though. She looks best equipped of the form horses to handle those conditions.

Wetherby - 14:25: No Bet

Dashel Drasher looks a fair price at 9/43.25 in the bet365 hurdle at 14:25 - the 5/23.50 was taken overnight - as he is the best horse in the race, he will love the ground and he showed he can go well fresh when winning first time up last season.

However, his previous record suggests he comes on appreciably for his reappearance and I have no idea how straight he is for this.

Thyme Hill obviously has to be respected too, especially with his stable in such good nick, and I would also fear Botox Has despite his 4lb penalty.

The 9/25.50 tempted me a touch but no bet.

Wetherby - 13:15: Back The Paddy Pie

The first thing I do when looking at a race is to do a pace map and there are nine potential forward-goers in the extended 2m3f handicap chase at 13:15, though one of those, the 7/24.50 favourite, Cruz Control, is also in at Ascot, which is apparently his first preference.

So expect a Rule 4.

Last year's winner Ladronne has a decent chance, but the Sportsbook's 9/25.50 it too short, but The Paddy Pie looks far too big at 25/126.00. That could come under pressure but 20/121.00 and upwards fixed odds or on the exchange win-only is worth a small tickle.

Now, he is also one of the aforementioned forward-goers but he can be ridden with restraint and he runs here off a career-low mark of 107. He has been as high as 126 before and never lower than 110

He was a well-beaten third in this race last year but he won off 114 over course and distance on Boxing Day and I don't think he was given at all a hard time on his reappearance at Warwick. He has never won off a long break.

The stable haven't had a winner since June, but they have had a few run well of late, including a 50/151.00 third at Aintree last week, and I am happy to take the 25s.

The ground may not be ideal - in fact, it won't be - but he has won on soft and the price compensates.

Wetherby - 15:30: Back Haafapiece

Regardless of my current form and the search for a morale-boosting winner - Dashel Dasher would have been an easy tip but I am not backing him - I have to be true to myself and tip how I punt, and that rarely includes short prices.

That won't be changing but hopefully my results will be.

Fellow 10yo Haafapiece may well have gone at the game after a poor 2022/23 but he is down to a mark of just 121 now, and I initially thought he was well worth chancing at 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook at his beloved Wetherby in the 15:30, where has form figures if 423131.

He won this race first time up off 127 in 2021 and he was actually rated 136 after beating Ballyandy over course and distance on soft ground in January 2022, so any double-figure prices tempted me.

But I sat on this column on Thursday night, and I was torn when re-assessing the odds and tweaking the copy on Friday morning and I don't think there is any doubt he would want a touch better ground and Pam Sly is hardy flying .

Her small jumps string hasn't had a winner since April and their last Flat scorer was in May.

However, I decided that I thought 10s was big enough for me to have a small wager, fixed-odds or exchange - and you can actually argue all of his best efforts have come on soft, so I may be being overly-negative there - so I am putting him up here. Albert's Back is an obvious one to fear along with Willie Mullins' Alvaniy and Decorated.

Nothing doing for me at Santa Anita, so I'll park it there.

Good luck.

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