Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Stainsby Girl overpriced at 14/1 at Wetherby on Saturday

• Tony Previews Wetherby on Saturday

• One ante-post selection from the Yorkshire track

• Part two to follow with Ascot ante-post view

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Honesty the best policy

In the past few months, I have probably gone through the worst tipping spell in this column that I can remember and it doesn't sit comfortably with me, at all.

And that is a rather large understatement.

I've now given myself a private target, at which time I will reassess and maybe make the hard decision, but I am going to re-set the profit and loss dial back to zero now the jumps is with us - we get the odd Flat distraction for the next fortnight admittedly . Here is hoping a week's break and a fresh mindset can kick-start matters to less embarrassing levels.

I appreciate my long-term record is half-decent and there has certainly been no drop-off in my attention to detail or preparation in recent months, but it is important - indeed vital - to address the here and now, and to make the necessary apologies.

I will continue to display my P & L figures from the recent Flat season (minus 33.1 points), while deleting from show the far more distant, healthier returns from the 2022-23 jumps (plus 207.6). Readers deserve to be treated like adults and to see the good and bad on the end of every column.

I have little time for people who don't show a P & L, or those who don't acknowledge the busts that go with the cretinous booms.

I am probably being too hard on myself given it is a relatively small recent sample in the bigger picture, I tip with one set of prices and my long-term record - my recent experiences have also given me plenty of balance, with news that my grandson was in A & E on Monday night another reminder of what really matters in life - but it is your money that I have been losing and it is the way I am.

Honesty and accountability is all in this game and that is how it should be.

Anyway, self-pity over, I felt I had to address that, so let us now get stuck into the Saturday action from Ascot and Wetherby.

National Hunt racing takes priority

If I have any thoughts on the Breeders' Cup action on Friday and Saturday I will incorporate those into my weekend column (as with the Saturday Down Royal meeting perhaps, once we get the entries on Tuesday), but I wouldn't be the biggest fan of a once-yearly dip into American racing.

The temptation to focus solely on the European contingent is just too great.

Anyway, I am not totally ruling out an investment at Santa Anita - by the way, look out for Ryan Moore's column on both days, and I see the Sportsbook current have 11 races priced up on that front - but the National Hunt domestic action will clearly take priority.

It helps if you know all of the runners, I find.

Get set for very testing conditions in England

The Betfair Sportsbook odds-compilers - and indeed punters - had to start from scratch on Saturday's 10 ITV races from Wetherby and Ascot (five from each track) as none were long range ante-post markets, so it is tricky for all concerned. And that is why prices have been very slow to come through.

And let's hope racing is on, with Storm Ciaran on its way.

Wetherby is currently soft (good to soft in places) - as at 4.30pm on Monday - with rain due every day this week, and a lot of it is expected on Thursday and Friday (maybe up to 31mm).

Ascot is currently good to soft, soft in places, and the forecast there is even worse. The main weather site I use has 39mm coming from Tuesday to Thursday.

On current forecasts, we have to be working on the basis of heavy ground on both tracks. I am, anyway.

15:00 Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase: No Antepost Bet

Whether or not ground conditions will allow, or tempt, Paul Nicholls to run Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby at 15:00, for which the Sportsbook make him a 4/61.67 chance, against a maximum of just seven rivals, must be in severe doubt.

I suspect if there was a Betfair Exchange market on this race he would be trading at 6/42.50 and bigger.

Now, some of his best efforts have come on officially soft ground (though Timeform believe his King George win and Gold Cup second came on good to soft) but it has to be questionable whether the trainer will want to give his horse a hard comeback run in such testing conditions ahead of a planned shot at the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 25^th.

So whether you want to be backing him ante-post to be repeating his win in the race last season is highly debatable, and the race is hardly a gimme anyway with the likes of old foe Ahoy Senor in opposition, along with mudlark Dashel Drasher.

Nicholls also has Pic D'Orhy in here, too. And that horse has been backed from 11/26.50 into 7/24.50 with the Sportsbook since Monday. Make of that what you will.

The waters are further muddied by the fact Ahoy Senor also has the option of the bet365 Hurdle at 14:21, as does Dashel Drasher, so you wouldn't want to be too bold in laying Bravemansgame, I guess, when his main form rivals may not even rock up over fences.

It's a messy puzzle, as it stands - if the vibes are that the favourite may not go, then Ahoy Senor and Dashel Drasher may chance their arms over fences - and I wouldn't be in a rush to price it up if I were an odds-compiler.

With 10 ITV heats to go at, I am going to stick to the contests where I see a meaningful, potential edge ante-post and cut out unnecessary race-by-race, no-bet, waffle.

And where I have prices.

I know that sounds like stating the bleedin' obvious, but I am mindful of often defensively-priced ante-post markets and the tremendous value to be had on the day in recent months. Who would would have thought, for example, that the likes of Ballymount Boy would go off at a scarcely believable Betfair SP of 4.96 on Saturday? Of course, the opposite is true if you are on a runaway drifter that runs accordingly (of which there have been some unreal examples of late, such as Vadream in the Champions' Sprint)

A lot of the time we are simply better off waiting as punters, not least because each-way players also tend to get enhanced places at the weekend too, allied to similar odds in a non-runner, no-bet capacity.

Simple stuff, but obviously hugely important.

With eight in the Charlie Hall, and the same number in the 2m mares' hurdle at 13:50 and 10 in the 3m bet365 hurdle at 14:21, Wetherby aren't exactly blessed on the numbers front in their big races, admittedly.

13:50 Wetherby: Back Stainsby Girl @ 14/115.00

I bet Nicky Henderson is tempted to wait for the Greatwood Hurdle with Luccia, as she looks very temptingly handicapped off 136 there - she is 9/110.00 with the Sportsbook for that - but she is 6/42.50 joint favourite, alongside You Wear It Well, for the mares' hurdle at the weekend and it sounds like Wetherby is the plan for her. It could be a tough race if most of her current opposition stand their ground as well. Kateira at 5/23.50 is the other shortie at the top of the market.

The overpriced one in here is surely the 14/115.00 poke Stainsby Girl though, as her all-the-way Newcastle handicap win off 133 in heavy ground in March puts her in with every form chance here, and she won first time up in 2020 and 2022.

The horse's record on heavy is also a bet-inducing 2212151.

And Nick Alexander's recent form is fair enough, including winning with Elvis Mail at Kelso on Saturday.

I would have preferred it if You Wear It Well wasn't another confirmed front-runner, and that Stainsby Girl hadn't run poorly on her previous start at Wetherby. I suppose another factor is whether the trainer thinks the race is too hot for his 9yo against younger horses with more upside. I thought he may give it a swerve.

I am fed up with ante-post no-shows in this column, so I took the unusual step of contacting the trainer on Monday evening - I intend to give myself as much chance as possible as winning in the coming jumps season, so I may pester connections a lot looking for running news - who kindly responded and confirmed that the plan (and I appreciate plans change) is to run.

Thank you, Nick.

In the circumstances, I am happy to advise a win-only bet at 14/115.00 on Stainsby Girl with the Sportsbook. Here is hoping some of those at the top of the market are frightened off by the ground.

14:41 Wetherby: No Antepost Bet

The presence of the double-entered Ahoy Senor and Dashel Drasher, both stuck in at 11/43.75 by the Sportsbook, makes playing in the 3m hurdle at 14:41 troublesome.

Thyme Hill is the 2/13.00 favourite, though perhaps Botox Has, who goes best when fresh, is the most attractively priced of the field at 7/18.00. He is 8s elsewhere.

Gary Moore's 7yo will handle the expected bad ground well enough, though a 4lb penalty for his Haydock Grade 3 handicap hurdle win last season is fair old negative in this company.

ITV are also showing two handicap chases from Wetherby at 13:14 and 16:08, which promise heftier field sizes.

The three horses that interested me in the former are all double-entered, so no dice for me here, though last year's winner Ladronne, a 7/18.00 chance, with course form figures of 13152, has an obvious chance.

He beat the 1.03-traded Deyrann De Carjac in this contest last season, and that pair head the market, with the Alan King horse at 6/17.00, though he surely will not enjoy the likely ground. I'd be surprised if he ran.

There is a mere £4,225 on offer for the winner of the ITV-broadcast 3m handicap chase at 16:08. Given the lowly pot, plenty of connections may be tempted to wait if conditions are not deemed acceptable for their charges, and I am not surprised no bookmaker has priced it up yet, either.

There will be a second ante-post piece once I have looked over the Ascot prices just filtering through.

Off to check on the boy. Back later.

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Check out episode one of Coaching Carter here...