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Each-way selection for Saturday Newbury Handicap
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Hackwood pick can do it for the three-year-olds
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Newbury and Market Rasen provide Saturday's ITV racing
Playing the long game with the selections in last week's Antepost column led us down the wrong path rather than the primrose one - as the ground didn't materialise with Kinross, neither did the forecast, and Bolster certainly went for the wrong race at Ascot rather than the John Smith's Cup, as it teemed down at York.
We'll take Newbury first in race order for the four ITV races on Saturday and all four are priced up on the Sportsbook.
Trainer William Haggas has won the last two editions of the Listed Steventon Stakes and Al Aasy was one of those as he beat Phantom Flight 12 months ago and the 7yo has a fine record at Newbury with three wins at the track from four starts.
Saturday will be a starting point for his season and that shouldn't be too much of a worry for a horse who has won fresh before, nor should the going as he has wins on both good and good to soft.
With such a fine CV to his name - with wins in the Aston Park, Bahrain Trophy and John Porter, he doesn't look a bad price on the Sportsbook at 9/25.50.
Caviar Heights is the latest Sheikh Obaid/Karl Burke horse for another big Saturday, and following his win at Newmarket earlier this season, connections got Derby giddy, although the hopes were dashed as he was thumped in the Dante by Economics, and disappointed again in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot last time.
On the Newmarket run, he would be interesting, but I'd want a bigger price than 4/15.00 considering his last two runs. Although I am envious of his life, as his trainer Burke said all he does is eat and sleep.
He's part of the three-year-old posse in the race as Alyanaabi brings Classic form to the table and ran a decent race in the 2,000 Guineas on what appeared to be the wrong side of the track. Saturday is a massive drop in class from Group 1 company, and on his run behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst would take the beating.
However, the price reflects that and I have no interest in backing him at 13/82.63.
Macduff would be of small interest at 10/111.00, especially on his juvenile form. His run in the Classic Trial behind Arabian Crown certainly makes him a player of sorts at the price, although he was too keen in that.
The worry is whether not only is he quick enough for dropping down to 1m2f, or whether his run in the Derby has left his mark and bottomed him - which can happen.
It's one to duck for me I'm afraid.
The Metal UK Handicap over 2m at 14:25 is certainly more of a punting race and top weight Prydwen had a jockey booking on Tuesday - which is good news for those behind him on ratings, as he is off 108 and will face a tough task even though he is the 3/14.00 favourite.
He won emphatically in the All-Weather Marathon at Newcastle but was lapped in the Gold Cup Ascot. Is he simply a better horse on the All-Weather?
The are some prices to be found here surely and Kyle Of Lochalsh at 8/19.00 is a big price for a horse still with plenty of potential.
He came out of the Ascot Stakes well with a staying on third and he looked a revelation winning by 6L at Salisbury on his previous start. That came off 85 and there was a doubt with the soft conditions in Wiltshire prior to that run, and with a win on good ground in the book, it's less of worry with the forecast.
Kyle Of Lochalsh was well beaten by Prydwen at Newcastle, but I would have some confidence he can get closer to that rival rather than the 12L in the north east, and he's certainly an each-way price.
The one doubt is the poor form of Hughie Morrison - who is just 1-15 at 7% in the last two weeks. He's had a few placed though, and he still rates as a progressive stayer for me.
At the time of writing on Tuesday the ground at Newbury was good to soft and either way with quite a few dry days forecast for the track this week, I think we should be fine on that front.
William Haggas has another fancied runner, this time for the Hackwood Stakes at 15:00 on Saturday with Lake Forest, but like last week in the preview of the July Cup, I am not particularly keen on the Commonwealth Cup form.
His run at Royal Ascot was Lake Forest's first appearance of the season, so there is every chance he'll improve for that. However, and a real cautionary note here; he wasn't the biggest juvenile and he could be a similar type to Vandeek - who I don't think has trained on either.
It's too much of a risk at the price, especially as the sprinting division is so bad.
Elite Status won the Group 3 Prix de Cabourg in France last term on soft but he has enough form (and wins) on officially good to shy away from labelling him needing mud.
The 3yo won the Listed Carnarvon Stakes on his return for the season at Newbury, and that was a course record time too. That's more of a guide to him training on, and Clifford Lee seemed to think so too by saying: "He has had the winter to mentally and physically strengthen up. He's been working really well at home and feels stronger.
"He's a big horse with a big stride and the plan was to let him use it. He quickened up nicely and, although he was idling a bit in front, when he sensed another horse coming he found a bit more. I was impressed with him."
Elite Status was brilliant in last year's National Stakes too - with a 5L win and he pulverised the field there ridden up with the pace.
With his scope, I'd much rather take him than Lake Forest, and his trainer was glowing with his praise post-Sandown: "He is a very good horse. He has the potential to be a superstar sprinter and he has got the scope as well."
High praise indeed! Burke must be kicking himself he didn't get him in the July Cup.
Approaching the Weatherbys Super Sprint at 15:35 is one to tread carefully with - much like a sticky wicket in Cricket terms and one to nudge and nurdle and look for those early singles rather than slog for a quickfire 20.
On Tuesday, with a field of 25 juveniles and a complete mixed bag of ratings, the task set was akin to Sisyphus pushing a the heaving rock up the hill. Indeed, Sir Palamedes is rated 69 - some 50lbs behind Ain't Nobody, and the former might be about as quick as said rock.
For a token interest, and a horse blessed with a ton of natural pace is Do It Now for Adrian Keatley. The trainer has a good touch in the 2yo field and is 5-19 at 26% with his juveniles on the turf this season.
He's at 14/115.00 and scored by 4L at Ripon from the front and his dam Athas An Bhean was quick. I won't be backing him myself, therefor nor do I expect you to, but he's an each-way price and quick. So are the other 24 in the race (minus Sir Palamedes).
It's probably not the time nor place to side with the breeders who go for stamina rather than speed, as I cannot knock putting up 122k to the winner for a juvenile race, but these big pots for 2yo races lends to breeders chasing speed, speed and more speed, while the good old-fashioned stayer is going out of fashion like bootcut jeans.
A future stayers' series for youngsters with 100k-plus pots would be an idea, before they all leave for abroad or go jumping.
Three races at Market Rasen on ITV on Saturday are headed by the Summer Plate - the big handicap over fences and a trip of 2m6f. The prize money again is not to be baulked at and Dan Skelton seems to be trying for a jump start in terms of winners on the board for the trainers' championship. Skelton had two entered on Tuesday.
Don't worry, I've kicked myself for mentioning the title in July, and if I hear that Harry Cobden has edged ahead of Sean Bowen on Saturday in the jockey's title, I'll head off and eat my own arm.
In truth, I don't follow the jumps at all over the summer so I won't be advising a bet, but Francky Du Berlais might be back again to wrestle his crown as he is a previous dual winner of the race, but he is an eleven-year-old now, and is long enough in the tooth now to border into tusk territory.
So we'll park Market Rasen there and stick with the two bets for Newbury on Saturday.
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