Alan Dudman Antepost Tips: Back Persica to surprise in Saturday Winter Derby

• Beachcomber appeals as an each-way bet for Kempton feature  

• Anglers Crag bidding for back-to-back Eider Chases on Saturday

• Alan Dudman also looks at this weekend's Winter Derby at Southwell  

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We're spread across three tracks for ITV's Saturday coverage with Kempton and Eider Chase day at Newcastle, while Flat fans nudge closer to the Lincoln date with two races from Southwell.

Kempton's Saturday card will have a few trainers twitching and running scared from the ground as of Tuesday - given as good officially, although some rain is forecast later on this week.

The Ladbrokes Pendil Novices' Chase at 13:50 and the Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at 14:25 don't look great punting races if I am honest. Jingko Blue tops the former at 6/42.50 and Lulamba is sure to stamp his claims for the Triumph at Cheltenham for which he is 13/82.63 on the Sportsbook and 4/51.80 for Saturday at Kempers.

Palladium, whose name over jumps often goes hand-in-hand with price tag due to the splurge of vast amounts of money, and while Nicky Henderson said in the week (at presumably some sort of media day) that the price difference was too big between his juvenile pair.

I would not be putting my own money on Palladium for a Cheltenham win put it that way.

Likewise the Dovecote at 15:00 and both the novice/juvenile races have the potential to cut up.

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Kempton - 15:35: Back Beachcomber E/W @ 8/19.00

The 15:35 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase may be ersatz in design in comparison to the Cheltenham big beasts next month, but it's more like it for a punting race this Saturday and popular eyecatcher horse Iroko is the second favourite at 5/16.00.

I gave up trying to second guess JP many moons ago and we're fighting the potential weather gods too as drying ground could prompt the trainer to consider Kelso. He's not the only "Nash" contender in town with Hyland and Kandoo Kid here and Hyland also holds an Ultima entry.

Lowry's Bar is a horse I've liked this term and his trainer Philip Hobbs had a good run of things in this race from 1999 to 2011 with four wins, and his last one was Quinz 14 years ago in for owner Andrew Cohen, of the Suny Bay silks fame.

His contender is progressive, just what you want for this, and Hobbs still might consider him one of his Cheltenham squad at the top table as he holds a Grade 1 entry in the Brown Advisory, while the Ultima could be more realistic. A big performance of merit could change the Devon maestro's thinking on Saturday, but he wouldn't want dry ground.

Lowry's Bar's profile is one with plenty of soft and heavy ground form. His win at Chepstow, the ground was more good to soft rather than the official soft on Timeform, although he was no match for Jingko Blue at Windsor when last seen.

A mark of 148 is ballpark figures for this, but it might be a case of watching the weather and those days later in the week. If it does rain, and rains plenty dependant on your weather app of choice (mine is popular Norwegian hipster one YR thanks to my partner Marion and she's a whizz with weather and what to wear, unlike me), and Friday's the day for the most rain.

Beachcomber has very sound claims as an impressive course and distance winner last time over Christmas at the King George meeting with a 10 length romp on good to soft. I don't have as many ground fears with him.

The first-time headgear worked wonders for him as he was merrily lobbing along up with the pace, and bar getting in close to the penultimate fence, jumped soundly and winged the last when a mile clear.

He is up now to 136 from 127, and 9lbs might be considered fine with the margin of success and while he takes on a better and superior calibre horse for Saturday, he has no entries elsewhere, has won at the track, fine on the ground and in form.

Iroko and Lowry's Bar, plus Hyland in the mix all could be a cut above the selection, especially Hyland on his Kauto Star run at Kempton behind The Jukebox Man, although he might want the rain to stay away while keeping an eye on Iroko's participation as Hyland's mark is 147.

We've got four places to play with on the Sportsbook each-way and Beachcomber was at one stage considered a fair prospect by his trainer Jonjo O'Neill as he ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper. His hurdling efforts were patchy but he's looked a far better chaser and he does like a flat course according to the Jackdaws boss.

"He is a bit of a character. He won a bumper at Chepstow, and we thought he was going to be okay, and he probably will be as he is a big weak horse. He seems to have got the hang of things now, and he won around here the last time he came here. He seems to like flat tracks," said Jonjo.

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Newcastle - 14:10: Back Anglers Crag @ E/W 7/18.00

Anglers Crag was a horse I backed for the Rehearsal Chase back in November, and my confidence dwindled the more he drifted - and kept on drifting. He went out to a BSP of 50.0 that day and was never in the race. Game over and one eye on the Eider, as that was his first run of the season.

His mark is slowly relenting, maybe slower than the pace they will be racing at on Saturday in the north east, and he's now down to 130 after his run in the Edinburgh National last time at Musselburgh. The less said about 2m6f around Market Rasen too, the better.

From 130, he remains 4lb above his winning mark in last year's Eider Chase and it's fairly obvious his campaign has been centred around this race and defending his crown.

I was torn a little with O'Connell, who is progressive and won at Sandown for the antepost column last time, but he has to improve and has to prove himself at the trip.

With Anglers Crag, he got every inch in the race last year when outpointing Prince Des Fichaux in a finish slightly quicker than soil erosion, but he stayed so well and showed bravery having ploughed from the top of the penultimate fence. His stamina is clear and so is his ability to handle testing conditions.

The official description last term was "heavy", but it was "soft" according to Timeform and he has bits and pieces of form in good to soft to keep our bet alive.

Once again, we have four places on the Sportsbook for an each-way bet and he could well drift. Not like the Rehearsal Price in hope as I will be running for cover and hiding behind the sofa again.

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Southwell - 15:15: Back Persica @ 7/24.50

A good brain (or sui generis) is needed to solve the Hever Listed Sprint at Southwell for the first of two on Winter Derby day and ITV - a card I attended the once and only time in 2007 with Gentleman's Deal and it was bloody freezing. I wish I had seen Tryster, though - whooshka, what a horse he was on the All-Weather for Godolphin.

Sadly that type of profile is lacking with Charlie Appleby these days for this race and winter campaigns as bigger riches await in Dubai and Saudi.

Indeed, the Saudi Derby is worth a cool 720K, but it's run over 1m so shouldn't be called a Derby. Not on my watch anyway.

Back to matters closer to home and the Winter Derby is priced up on the Sportsbook and it's a shootout at the top between Royal Champion and Military Academy. With 5/42.25 playing 7/42.75.

Royal Champion won the Listed Quebec Stakes in classy fashion last time beating Tyrrhenian Sea, the model looks horse, and form boosted too with the second's subsequent success. It was a good return for Royal Champion after a short lived spell down under in Australia.

He had a bit of class last time, with his two final sectionals sub-seconds and produced a big kick before the turn, like the old famous Adam Kirby one around Lingfield and that 2f sectional was his big burst.

The only doubt is translating that to a totally different track as Southwell's 1m2f is stiff and you need to finish well. That burst will have to be saved very late.

For me, Persica's claims have been overlooked a little at 7/24.50 for Richard Hannon and Sean Levey, and off a break of 126 days is an interesting runner.

Persica was third off a break as a three-year-old last year to the 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and duly won a decent 1m2f Handicap at Epsom and subsequently Sandown when making the running and prominent at Sandown under Sean Levey.

It was testing ground at Sandown so with his stamina ensured, Level might want to make Saturday a test and be watchful of the potential acceleration threat from Royal Champion. And let's face it, Royal Champion is a seven-year-old with Persica relatively unexposed and 1-2 on the All-Weather.

He travelled really smoothly to win the Doonside Cup at Ayr last term too and the trip at Southwell could be tailor-made for his style, and Levey is a man to rely on as I rate him as a jockey who makes so few mistakes and at 7/24.50 is worth taking on the big two here.

It's a first try on the Southwell surface which can raise a question, and his sire New Bay on Tapeta surfaces is 14% win and 33% placed, so I am encouraged by that.

And with it being the Winter Derby it means we are just 39 sleeps away from the Lincoln, or no sleeps if you are an insomniac like me.

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