Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Troy to lay Siege in Ebor Handicap

• Racing handy could be a plus in Ebor Handicap

• Murtagh runner looks well-in on just third handicap run

• Read Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict for York feature

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The Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (15:35) is one of the most prestigious handicaps in the British racing calendar. With £500,000 up for grabs, there was no shortage of demand for runners and just a couple of the entries that were guaranteed a run didn't declare for the race.

The race itself promises to be just as competitive as the contest to get into it and as always it is a puzzle that will take plenty of solving.

Pace might not be strong so racing in front third a plus

With big-field handicaps like this, there can often be a widespread assumption that the pace will be stronger than even. But, as I've found reason to write a few times in recent weeks, assumption is the mother of all failures. In terms of what the pace map looks like:

Queenstown (5) tends to make the running or race prominently. London City (18) had tended to race prominently or lead until being dropped in on his latest start in Group 2 company. A return to a more forward ride seems likely. Enemy (6) can occasionally make the running, though was dropped in on his latest start. Shadow Dance (8) tended to race prominently last year and while he was dropped in on his seasonal return last time, a return to a more forward ride wouldn't at all surprise.

Almosh'her (2) was prominent when winning his penultimate start and while he was dropped in from a wide draw in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last time, he might well return to a more prominent ride from a low draw over this longer trip. Majestic Warrior (17) made all to win a novice race on his penultimate start, but wasn't as forward in a handicap last time and steps up in trip in a much more competitive race here, so seems unlikely to contribute to the pace. 

To me, that adds up to an uncertain pace picture and I certainly wouldn't want to be assuming that the pace will be any stronger than even. The way this track plays, that means I want to be with one that is going to sit in the front third of the field. I also wouldn't be too afraid of a slighter wider draw.

Murtagh runner looks well-in off her old mark

There are more than a couple that fit that particular bill, but the one that I like the most is the Johnny Murtagh-trained Siege Of Troy.

The four-year-old filly is very well bred being a half-sister to Buckaroo and Middle Earth. In fact, in a rare quirk Siege Of Troy is running against her other older half-brother Kihavah here. She has only had two runs in handicaps and has ran well on both occasions, most notably when fourth in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot last time.

Long-term readers might remember that I put her up as one of my bets of the day on that occasion. I felt she ran quite well that day, shaping as though she is ready for this longer trip.

Since then, Siege Of Troy ran a huge race when upped in class for the Ballyroan Stakes. Granted it was a particularly steadily-run race and thus the form may not be considered reliable, but she came from further back than her main rivals and was beaten just a length by the much higher-rated pair of Sons And Lovers and Crystal Black. The handicapper could have raised her much more than the 3lb that he did and that run leaves her well-in off her old mark here.

The booking of Patrick McGettigan is potentially significant too, as the promising apprentice represents very good value for his 7lb claim. She is a really interesting contender and might well back a bold bid to give Johnny Murtagh his third win in the Ebor of his training career.

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