July Festival Day 1 Racing Tips: Bosh is Tony Calvin's sole bet at Newmarket

Tony Calvin
06 July 2022
3:00 min read

Tony Calvin has a sole tip at Newmarket on day 1 of the July Festival

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Newmarket's July Festival commences on Thursday, and while the three Group races don't interest Tony Calvin from a betting perspective, our man does have a strong tip in the sprint handicap...

"Dropped 1lb for that run, he looks a well-handicapped horse, and one who will be surely suited by dropping back to 6f in what you would hope is a fast-run race."

Back Bosh win-only at 13.012/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook in 15:00 at Newmarket

Thursday's five ITV races are certainly not my ideal type of betting contests.

Two six-runner Group races are not great for punters and bookmakers alike, and a precarious dead-eight in the 2yo July Stakes will make the potential each-way bettors nervous, too.

So that leaves us with a 19-runner 3yo 6f handicap at HQ, and a 13-runner fillies' handicap over the same trip at Carlisle.

A double-dose of sprint hell to cap it all off!

Anyway, I have a job to do, so let's park the negativity and crack on.

I'll take Newmarket in chronological order.

Little betting appeal in trio of Group races

If ever there was evidence needed that blindly chucking money at the top end is deeply flawed, it is the six-runner Bahrain Trophy - I couldn't believe it when I saw the Group 3 at 13:50 was worth 200k, with 113k to the winner - although that makes it no easier to solve.

The Derby fourth Masekela is the obvious favourite but I was a touch surprised to see the Queen's Vase runner-up Zechariah edging towards 9/2 on the exchange, but not enough to get the punting wallet out.

The market basically has it as a straight fight between Little Big Bear and Persian Force in the July Stakes at 14:25, and it is hard to argue with that line.

Newmarket head on 1280x720.jpg

Well, not exactly a straight tussle - even if they, combined, take out a huge chunk of the market at 7/4 apiece - but the problem, as alluded to earlier in the piece, is that we have just eight runners.

And eight runners have a nasty habit of becoming seven or less, especially on quickening ground - it is currently good to firm at Newmarket, although they are set to water again on Wednesday - so those looking to take the front pair on with the likes of the hampered Norfolk Stakes fourth Brave Nation, each way, will probably do well to wait until Thursday afternoon.

It is double-figure prices on the exchange outside the front two form horses in the six-runner Princess Of Wales's Stakes at 15:35 - I have no issue with that assessment - so, rather predictably, all roads lead to the 6f handicap at 15:00.

Solid form and drop back to 6f looks ideal

There is no surprise to see Khanjar head the betting, with Deodar not far behind - the latter will be suited by dropping down to 6f from his declining handicap mark, and perhaps the first-time blinkers will perk him up, too - but Bosh looks overpriced to me.

Back him at 12/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I am a bit concerned by his draw in 17 as the July course can often throw up a stands' side bias (and watering adds a random element, too) but, then again, the first three home last year were drawn 16, 15 and 19, so I'll take my chances.

Prior to disappointing on his final start last season, for which he went off an 11/4 favourite in a 20-runner handicap at York, he proved himself a smart juvenile, well suited by 6f on quick ground, and he has shaped very well over 7f on both starts this term.

He tanked through the race when a length third at Newbury on his return, weakening a touch late on, and that form was franked by subsequent wins from the winner, and both of the dead-heaters in fourth.

He was persevered with over 7f at Goodwood last time, a race in which he travelled strongly in last place, made a big move before the furlong pole, only for his run to flatten out soon after, at which time he hung right and could possibly have been unsuited by the track.

Even so, that four-length fourth has also be seen to be very strong form.

The winner is now rated 9lb higher after scoring since, the runner-up is now rated 19lb higher after finishing second in the Jersey next time out and the third finished second in a Group 3 last time. Even the ninth of 10 has won subsequently.

Dropped 1lb for that run, he looks a well-handicapped horse, and one who will be surely suited by dropping back to 6f in what you would hope is a fast-run race.

And he has big-field form too, having finished second to subsequent Group 3 winner Sacred Bridge (next time out in fact, by 3 ¾ lengths) in a 22-runner sales race at Naas last September.

The one big doubt (apart from the small matter of 18 rivals) is that we haven't seen him since the Goodwood run in May, which definitely hints at an issue, but he goes very well when fresh on the evidence we have seen.

Even so, I am going to play win-only as a result, rather than each-way, six places, though those terms are admittedly very tempting

If he is the same price or bigger on the exchange (which he is at the time of publishing, at 15.0), then fire away there, too. 10/1+ is fine, but definitely no lower in a race of this depth.

He is my sole bet of the day, as Carlisle can look after itself.

Good luck.