ITV Races

Alan Dudman Antepost Tips: Four selections for Friday and Saturday at Newmarket

Charlie Appleby
Charlie Appleby has a runner that has caught Alan's eye for the Zetland Stakes

Alan Dudman's focus in this week's antepost column is at Newmarket for the upcoming ITV races and he has tips for the Old Rowley Cup and the Cesarewitch...


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Newmarket and Chepstow headline this weekend

With Chepstow entering the fray for Friday and Saturday, the Persian War Novices' Hurdle is priced up on the Sportsbook, but Newmarket provides the guts of the action across two days on the ITV cameras and while it's been a pretty wet week thus far and rain is forecast at HQ for Tuesday and Wednesday, it's not quite a case of "Abandon hope all ye enter here" yet.

Four of the Friday races are already up on the Sportsbook and the highlight is the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at 15:35.

It's been a while since the Godolphin colours were seen to victory in this race - back in 2012, although I remember seeing the brilliant White Moonstone when the race was staged at Ascot back in 2010 with Frankie Dettori on board, which highlights how long ago it was, and Dettori is now 99 years of age.

It will be interesting to see what Aidan O'Brien decides to go with as he holds seven of the 11 entries, although Ecstatic, Dreamy and Giselle have never raced on anything softer than good, but all bases are covered.

The same comments can be levelled at the unbeaten Desert Flower for Charlie Appleby, who confirmed herself as one of the leading juvenile fillies around with a Group 2 win at Doncaster, and one has to think she's Appleby's big Classic hope for next season and she's 7/42.75 for Friday.

She's been faultless so far under the mentorship of Appleby. Tabiti would be an interesting runner if the ground is quick, but that's unlikely, and Ralph Beckett said she wasn't in love with the ground last time when winning at Salisbury.

In short, there are too many imponderables due to O'Brien's army of runners and the potential soft ground. A hornets' nest.

Anna Swan would be a nice story for Sir Michael Stoute devotees, but she is only rated 90 albeit winning on her latest start in soft and will stay. Indeed, assistant to Stoute James Savage said: "She has the Fillies' Mile entry and would definitely stay. There's plenty of stamina in her family, but there are other options for her, including the Oh So Sharp Stakes on the same card."

Stoute last win the Fillies Mile in 2003 with Red Bloom, but Anna Swan also has an entry in the Oh So Sharp just to add to the puzzling mix, as does Tabiti.


Old Rowley Cup pair appeal at double figures

Friday's 16:10, the Old Rowley Cup over 1m4f is more like it as a punting medium and the Sportsbook were 7/24.50 the field on Tuesday with the Reverend topping the betting tree.

Blake will be one to keep an eye on for the forecast as he's certainly an each-way price at 16/117.00 with the four places on the Sportsbook as he is very much a soft ground performer and ran a decent fifth last time in a 0-105 at Doncaster behind Grey Cuban.

He was on the pace throughout in that and not many got involved from the back, but considering it was his first run for 68 days (presumably with the lack of soft ground opportunities), he is certainly one to keep onside with the rain in mind. Plus he remains on an unchanged mark of 88.

I liked his win at Sandown earlier in the season and he gave the impression there was a bit more to come - and he's certainly worth a go at the 1m4f distance.

I'd want rain, though, and I'll put him into the mix for Friday in the hope he'll get some soft.

Another at a similar price I like is Goodwood Odyssey - and I backed him at Ascot last time which proved to be a disappointing exercise as he was too keen.

Yes, he could have done with a stronger pace, but he's better than that and is worth another chance for his excellent trainer David Menuisier, who does so well with his middle-distance handicappers.

Indeed, the trainer has a 37% placed record all told with runners over 1m4f to 1m6f and Goodwood Odyssey had looked progressive prior to Ascot and he handled the soft conditions well at Goodwood with a win earlier in the season.

He travelled really well with style at Goodwood over 1m4f and beat an old friend of mine Maghlaak in that race, and with him looking ahead of his mark there on 90, he still remains interesting from 95 with Kieran Shoemark already booked up.


Superb Saturday card at Newmarket with the big guns

The Zetland Stakes is one I've traditionally liked watching, as it's a rare beast - a staying race of sorts over 1m2f for juveniles and can often throw up a stayer.

This has been an imprimatur to collect for backers of Charlie Appleby as he's won it three years on the trot going into the weekend.

His two entered are Silver Peak 8/19.00 and Watching Stars - the shorter of the two at 6/17.00, and for good measure in matching Godolphin, Aidan O'Brien has just the eight entered - which again muddies the waters for an ante-post bet.

Watching Stars is by the doyen - Sea The Stars, but it was only a novice at Thirsk that he won, and while he'll stay, he didn't appear to be in love with the easier going.

Silver Peak looks more like a Zetland project in my eyes and I'm surprised he is two points bigger in the betting as he very much looks stamina.

He won a novice at Haydock that Appleby has farmed in recent seasons and I liked the way he learned on the job at Haydock in the easier conditions as he was niggled over the 1m but then produced a power-packed surge to pick up well.

Indeed, his half mile sectionals were all the quickest in the field, and William Buick was quite complimentary of him afterwards by saying: "The ground is pretty slow out there and he is still learning. He was just caught out a little bit early on and we ended up where we were, but I expected him to come into the race like he did, and he's a nice horse for the future. I couldn't be more pleased with him today."

It didn't look much of a race, but the second has since won a novice by half the track and while he has to go some way to justifying his ridiculous price tag, I like him as a stayer and the 1m2f is a step in the right direction.

Just to back up the bet for staying potential, I dug into Silver Peak's sire Dubawi and his record over 1m2f at Newmarket with juveniles - and it was happy reading.

He holds an electric five winners from nine runners at the distance with juveniles at a whopping 55%. This is the breeding game and these are the sort of races we need.


Ces' with five places on the Sportsbook

While the Dewhurst is possibly THE race of the weekend, it's not quite the punting race I'd like at this moment with the potentially top drawer The Lion In Winter at Evens for Saturday.

That Acomb form just keeps looking better and better, but I won't be tipping up an Evens shot in an ante-post column.

With five places for the Cesarewitch, that's a bit more like it for the end of season staying shindig - or wacky race.

Thirty-one ran in this race last year in which The Shunter won, and those looking to Warmonger at 12/113.00 won't have any such worries about the horse getting in with him being last on the list of 28.

Could this be the ultimate piece of Sir Mark Prescott placing again with a three-year-old in off a featherweight with a progressive profile?

The emphasis on stamina has suited this fella down to the ground this term - from winning in soft at Lingfield in a meagre race, he has thrived with more wins and a bolt up job at Kempton with a win by 4L from 85.

He ticks the stamina box and I don't doubt there's even more to come from the further trip on Saturday plus he has soft ground form. Warmonger has shown a tendency to over-race and be keen, but aside from that, his low weight potentially this weekend is too attractive to turn down.

I get he could be the sort of wiseguy horse that everyone could latch onto with the trainer's exploits - which I did find amusing looking at the horse's first four runs as a 2yo when sent off at 300/1, 300/1, 200/1 and 100/1.


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