Goodwood and Galway Tips for Thursday: A trio of huge priced plays for Tony Calvin

• 20/121.00 Theoryofeverything helped by soft ground

• Prairie Dancer in 40/141.00 pair of Galway tips

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You can't question the class on show in the Group races at Goodwood on Thursday, but I just wish there were more damn runners.

Of course, the reason why there aren't is that too many are sold or moved abroad before they have a chance to blossom, and this was hammered home in a tweet I saw on Monday.

It listed eight horses that were off to Australia, including the Queen's Vase runner-up and Bahrain Trophy third Saint George - Queen Anne third Light Infantry was the most high-profile - and that is exactly the kind of horse that should have been running in the six-strong Gordon Stakes at 15:00.

Goodwood - 15:00: No bet

That race provides me with a headache as I have nibbed at three horses for the St Leger, and two of them run here, Espionage and Chesspiece.

First, the ground though.

It is currently soft, good to soft in places, after another 6.8mm landed overnight and there is plenty more rain forecast throughout Wednesday, so we could easily be looking at borderline heavy on Thursday (which is forecast to be dry) if that materialises. It is fair to assume we will get a few non-runners, but let's kick on.

Connections of Chesspiece thinks he wants plenty of dig, which surprised me somewhat - his Hamilton win last time came on ground Timeform called good, and his worse run this season came on soft (admittedly first time out) - but the confirmed soft ground horses are Espionage, Artistic Star and Desert Hero.

I loved what Espionage did on his return at Roscommon (even if the form was no match for his Group 1 second on heavy at two, which just about makes him the form choice here), but he is short enough at 7/42.75 in a race where you cannot rule out any of the field.

I am a big fan of Chesspiece and my Derby fancy Artistic Star too, so I can leave the race alone. I am trying to be briefer than usual this week when I don't have a betting option, so I'll park it there.

Goodwood - 15:35: No bet

There are also only six in the Nassau Stakes at 15:35, but the match-up between Blue Rose Cen and Nashwa (11/102.11 plays 15/82.88 on the Sportsbook) promises to be a cracker.

Those are, glaringly, the most likely winners, but the betting has them fully covered, as you'd expect.

However, as with the Gordon Stakes, I couldn't readily rule out any of the field.

In fact, I was very tempted to stick up Never Ending Story, even though she has seen the backside of Blue Rose Cen on the three times they have met, including when they were 1-2 in the French Oaks in June.

I just think we may not have seen the best of the Aidan O'Brien filly (who is the stable-selected ahead of Warm Heart and Jackie Oh from the five-day stage), as I don't think she has really kicked on from a devilishly impressive defeat of Matilda Picotte on heavy ground over 7f in April.

We are getting 33/134.00 too - the early 40/141.00 was taken - as her form has petered out on her last two starts and Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore has decided to ride the Coolmore-owned Above The Curve. But I don't like advising a bet without a cogent and convincing argument attached. And I couldn't really build a credible case, bar the price and her heavy ground form over shorter.

So I'll pass here, too.

It'll just be good to see the big two go at it, with Blue Rose Cen (along with the over-priced 10/111.00 chance Above The Curve) going forward and Nashwa looking to pounce late with that turn of foot of hers.

The Gosdens' filly really did look a miler to me last time devastating in the Falmouth, but of course she is ground-versatile (though she probably prefers a better surface) and won this race last year, so it is game on with the French slop monster. But this is no two-runner race.

Goodwood - 14:25: No bet

I thought the Richmond Stakes at 14:25 was equally hard to call. Unquestionable and Jasour are clearly the form horses, even if the latter has a 3lb penalty for his impressive July Stakes win, but all of their rivals have won races, and the once-raced victors Sketch and Vandeek both posted very good times when winning on their debuts.

As I am fond of saying, this 2yo race is a bit too much of a guess-up for me - though the 625,00 guineas Breeze Up purchase Vandeek won on ground Timeform called soft at Nottingham and would be my non-betting token pick - so let's get stuck into the opening 1m2f handicap at 13:50.

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Coco Jack

Update: Coco Jack is now a non-runner

I tipped Royal Rhyme at Newbury last time and he disappointed, but he has had a break since that modest run in May and the key to him could be the softer ground here (both wins have come on soft).

He is not a bad price at all at 14/115.00 but the two I landed on were Coco Jack (don't laugh) and Theoryofeverything, both of whom run in first-time headgear.

The records of the trainers with their respective headgear switches isn't bet-inducing (George Scott is three from 34 with blinkers, and the Gozzas are 21 from 110 since father and son joined forces in 2018) but hopefully they will help.

I sided with Coco Jack two starts ago when he ran respectively to finish fifth at Newmarket but the angle with him is that he was dropped 3lb for a throw-out run at the same track last time, as he was bumped into early which set him alight.

His inexperienced 7lb claimer (having just his fifth ride) got run away with, so I reckon connections got a 3lb bonus for that. Andrea Atzeni, two from 10 for the yard, takes over.

The horse is obviously tricky but he is now 2lb lower than when an excellent second at Musselburgh in June (strong handicap form that worked out well) and he ran well when in the Golden Gates at the Royal meeting when not having the best of passages.

He is well worth a bet at 40/141.00 each-way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. Scott is a very useful five from 18 in the last fortnight.

He may well be a non-runner as he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft, but I think he is well worth trying on a deep surface given his pedigree, which includes his multiple-winning half-sister Black Morning loving the mud (all give wins came on a range of good to soft to heavy).

Hopefully, Scott can see that, but if he is pulled out, then so be it. I'd back him at 25/126.00 and more.

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Theoryofeverything

The prompt for tipping Theoryofeverything is the return to softer ground and the headgear.

He is fairly handicapped on his Greenham third and this beautifully bred colt (by Frankel out of soft ground QEII winner Persuasive) obviously has scope for improvement after just four starts.

He is also worth backing each-way 20/121.00 on the Sportsbook. I quite liked the way he shaped off a break on ground too quick for him at Yarmouth, a race in which he was looked after. I would back him at 14/115.00-plus.

Given the Frankel element, and the fact that he is a full brother to a winner at the trip, I can see the angle of him stepping up to 1m2f.

Galway - 17:05: Back 40/141.00 pair

By the way, I have backed the forward-goers Cash Back and Prairie Dancer in the Galway Hurdle at 17:05, so feel free to join me if you so wish. In fact, I will put both up here.

I had them down as the only front-runners in the field, and both on very attractive marks if returning to their best, so hopefully they can get to the head of affairs and one of them will last home.

Cash Back is a 153-rated chaser who is 13lb lower in this sphere and the handicapper dropped him a generous 2lb for a very good third to Fils D'oudairies in a Grade 3 at Tipperary last month, which came off the back of a neck second to that same rival at Ballinrobe.

He clearly doesn't have a sexy profile, as an 11yo making his course debut, but I thought the Sportsbook's 40/141.00 was pretty insulting, to be honest.

Prairie Dancer is also 40/141.00, which again seems far too dismissive, especially as the current ground at Galway was described as good to yielding on Wednesday morning despite all the rain.

Okay, he has been out of form but he has dropped to a mark of just 138 (he was rated 142 after dotting up at Listowel last year) and the blinkers are back on after he ran in cheekpieces over fences last time.

Five of his six wins have come in blinkers, and he has won on good and heavy, so the weather can do what it wants to a fair degree. But he would prefer the ground as it currently stands, as he is better on a decent surface.

He was also third in this race last year, albeit off an 8lb lower mark than this.

I'll happily take those two against the field and I'll play them both each way too, five places. I think 33/134.00 and upwards is acceptable.

Good luck.

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