Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin likes two at York and a 33/1 shot at Newmarket

Something for everybody on ITV on Friday, and the jumps guys and gals will be getting all giddy as we have two races from Chepstow on the box.

I know I joke about the industry that is the Road To Cheltenham, or whatever you want to call it, and it is frankly pretty ridiculous this far out. I just hope that all of the people sticking up bets and tips from October onwards are parting with their own cash, too.

And the same goes for those who write this Ten To Follow, and tracker columns as well.

However, by the time this Chepstow meeting comes around I do tend to start to get interested in National Hunt once again, and look back at last season's results.

It amazes me every year how much I can't remember, even from the Cheltenham Festival - and Aintree is a complete blur outside of the Grand National - so the "getting to know you again" period is actually quite instructive.

We may as well start with Chepstow, then.

Don has a Mighty chance but Persian War has too many unknowns

Some things never change - the novices' chase on Friday's card has attracted just three, and only two of the races have attracted eight runners or more - but the constant is everyone loves a veterans' contest and a 2m7f handicap chase of that ilk at 13:35 kicks off the ITV action in Wales.

There is some rain due at Chepstow throughout Friday but it has been very dry at the track, so much so that the chase course is currently good to firm despite plenty of watering.

Al Roc has the advantage of proven race fitness over his six rivals, but he is up against come classier types who have slipped to attractive marks, most notably obviously The Mighty Don off 132.

There is a plenty of possible pace on in here with Cloth Cap, Broken Quest, last year's winner Some Chaos and Innisfree Lad in the line-up, and maybe this is the day for The Mighty Don, who won the novices' chase on this card in 2020, to deliver.

But backing him is hardly easing your way into the new jumps season, as he certainly can hit one, and I was looking for a touch bigger than the Sportsbook's 11/4 about him (though he is bigger on the exchange at 10/3).

The Persian War at 14:10 has attracted a competitive eight-runner field (it was nine, but we lost Legionar with heat in his leg on Wednesday) and you wouldn't be in a rush to rule out any, which of course causes would-backers a bit of a headache.

The two that I liked most were Presentandcounting, whose fitness is guaranteed and who hails from the in-form Donald McCain yard, and Deeper Blue, who clocked a good time figure when winning a handicap at Exeter off 125 back in March.

However, there are just too many unknowns for me to unload here, most obviously levels of fitness, even if you have to think most will be pretty straight going for a 50k pot.

Roger a rather Dashing price in York handicap

I'll head to the three ITV races at York next before taking in the main action at Newmarket. It doesn't look like it is going to be as soft as it looked like at one stage earlier in the week; it is predominantly good but one site says 6mm is due throughout Friday, so we will see.

What's The Story and Substantial (has a lot of handicap upside) are the obvious, solid ones in the 1m contest at 14:40, and they are not bad prices at all at 10s with the Betfair Sportsbook (who are paying six places).

I wouldn't be a big fan of the former's jockey though, and the William Haggas yard is quieter than usual and Substantial's wide draw in 19 could prove problematical, so I am going to take a swing with the complete rag of the field.

Back Dashing Roger at 34.033/1 or bigger. I think you'll get a fair bit bigger once the market beds down. He is currently 33s with the Sportsbook.

Now, he obviously has a lot of blow-out potential given the form he is in, and he is also drawn wide in 17. But that berth could be a good thing if he starts as slowly as he did at York last time.

He clearly has a lot to prove after finishing last in two of his three starts this season - the fact he has been raced so sparingly hints at earlier problems - but there was a hint last time that a glimmer of ability still remains and the handicapper has certainly given him every chance here.

He was rated 104 after winning over 1m on good to soft at Ascot last August (just six starts ago) but he has cascaded down to just 93 now, and the form of the William Stone yard, which is having just its second runner at York, is encouraging.

Stone has had only five winners in 2022 but his Final Watch won easily at Ascot last week and he had a 9/1 second in a 17-runner handicap at Leicester (for the same owner) on Tuesday, too.

He also tries the horse in first-time cheekpieces too (the stable is 0 from 10 since 2016 with this, mind you) and, given he is so well handicapped if coming back to anywhere near his best - and that's a big if, I accept, hence the price - I am willing to part with my cash.

It can rain as much as it likes for this heavy-ground winner.

Cherry a bet to Double up

Coco Jack makes most appeal in the 15:15 but I have no inclination to have a bet in the race, but the 1m6f handicap at 15:50 is a cracker.

Nathanael Greene is the clear favourite in here, and obviously the form of his Haydock defeat of Giavellotto has worked out very well, but he did go up 8lb for it and the key to this race could be the Haydock handicap that saw Double Cherry beat the disqualified Sea King, with Zain Nights, Post Impressionist and Flamborough following him home.

It was clearly an incredibly messy race and you can make a case for all the re-opposers but I remember poo-pooing Racing TV's Niall Hannity's comments after the race that Double Cherry would get only a 2lb rise for the win, so it's hands-up time.

Hannity was bang on the money, I was bang wrong, so I have to stick with Double Cherry here at 8.415/2. The Sportsbook are paying four places, and their 13/2 is acceptable, too.

Now, he is another horse whose connections will applaud every drop of rain that falls and I really like his progressive profile. I can forgive him his sixth in Nathanael Greene's race as I think he got a less than optimal ride, and he shaped as though needing his Ascot race next time after a two-month break.

He did remarkably well to win last time considering he got absolutely mullered 2f out and I loved the way he stuck his head down and battled when getting racing room close home.

Keep Misty in mind if eight go to post in Challenge Stakes

Juvenile races aren't normally my bag, so the fact that three of the five ITV contests at Newmarket are for 2yos at least helps me to keep bets to a minimum on such a bumper day of ITV action. Pick your battles wisely on such days.

Commissioning is the predictably red-hot jolly in the Fillies Mile at 15:35, but the impressive and shock May Hill winner Polly Pott could be underestimated at double-figure odds.

But, without being close to a bet being recommended, I thought Rumstar at 16s was big enough in the opener at 13:50 and Crystallium was a worthy favourite at around 5s in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at 14:25. Make of that what you will.

Sacred looks a touch too short to me in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at 15:00, even at around 11/8 on the exchange.

She was undeniably impressive in Listed company at Newbury last time but there is definitely an element of recency bias to her price given Pogo is rated the same horse as her, and the others are not that far shy of her level.

It's a pity we have a dead-eight in here, so we are only one withdrawal away from each-way bets being scuppered, as I quite liked the 25/1 outsider Misty Grey to grab a place, and perhaps scoop the jackpot, on this decent ground.

He ran badly at Ripon in August and probably wasn't at his best behind recent Group 1 winner Kinross in the soft at Donny last time, but he comes firmly into the mix here on his narrow Group 3 second over 7f at Goodwood in between.

I am not going to recommend him now, as I personally won't be backing him until near the off when I see all eight are likely to start - or when the exchange's each way market is loaded - but he is one to bear in mind for an upset.

Back Rebel to cause an upset at Newmarket

There is no surprise that my only bet/tip at Newmarket is in the 16-runner Old Rowley Handicap at 16:10.

Sea King represents the aforementioned Haydock form and is 1lb well-in here, and the first-time blinkers alone for Charlie Appleby's Wild Crusade (his Group 1-winning full brothers Yibir and Wild Illusion excelled in headgear) makes him very interesting. Appleby is 15 from 51 since 2014 with the blinkers angle.

This is a race in which it is very easy to make a case for half a dozen and upwards, and it could well be that William Haggas has a strangehold on the race with La Yakel and Educator.

But my second wild swing of the day is Berkshire Rebel. Look to back him at 34.033/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange, but he is 33s with the Sportsbook if you want to get filled straight away.

In a race like this, with so many with far more obvious claims and sexier profiles, I can easily see him going off at 50/1+ on the exchange to be honest, but I have to tip here and now and he could just have much better claims than the price suggests.

He was highly-tried earlier in the season, taking in the four-runner Chester Vase which worked out very well (he was only ½ length behind the now 101-rated Savvy Victory off levels), and I thought he shaped very well on his first start for three months, and his first since a gelding operation, at Newbury last month.

Okay, he didn't pull up any trees but he saw his race out well enough, was beaten a little over 4 lengths, and he got dropped 4lb for it to a mark of 88. He is now 10lb lower than at the start of the campaign, and he is well worth a nibble at 33/1+.

Good luck.